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MRI-AGCM Global Warming Experiments towards the Rainfall Characteristics over India
Version 1
: Received: 16 March 2023 / Approved: 17 March 2023 / Online: 17 March 2023 (01:32:19 CET)
A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.
Nayak, S. Exploring the Future Rainfall Characteristics over India from Large Ensemble Global Warming Experiments. Climate 2023, 11, 94. Nayak, S. Exploring the Future Rainfall Characteristics over India from Large Ensemble Global Warming Experiments. Climate 2023, 11, 94.
Abstract
We investigated rainfall patterns in India over during the 60-year period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051-2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate (1951-1980 and 1981-2010) and their projected changes for the near and far future (2051-2080 and 2081-2110). Our analysis revealed that the northeastern region of India and some southern regions received higher rainfall during the period of 1951-2010. This finding is consistent with daily observations from the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE). In a warming climate, rainfall events in India are predicted to carry more precipitation, with the northeast and southern regions experiencing stronger rainfall events. The frequency and intensity of these events (with more than 20mm of rainfall per day, on average) are also expected to increase. Overall, our study suggests that water-related disasters such as flooding and landslides could be much worse in India in the future due to climate warming.
Keywords
Climate Change; d4PDF; Annual cycle; Ensemble experiment
Subject
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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