Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Calibrating a Process-based Model to Enhance Robustness in Carbon Sequestration Simulations: the Sase of Cedrus Atlantica (Endl.) Manetti ex Carrière

Issam Boukhris
* ORCID logo ,
Said Lahssini
* ORCID logo ,
Alessio Collalti
ORCID logo ,
Said Moukrim
,
Monia Santini
ORCID logo ,
Tommaso Chiti
ORCID logo ,
Riccardo Valentini
ORCID logo
Version 1 : Received: 19 December 2022 / Approved: 20 December 2022 / Online: 20 December 2022 (07:35:53 CET)

How to cite: Boukhris, I.; Lahssini, S.; Collalti, A.; Moukrim, S.; Santini, M.; Chiti, T.; Valentini, R. Calibrating a Process-based Model to Enhance Robustness in Carbon Sequestration Simulations: the Sase of Cedrus Atlantica (Endl.) Manetti ex Carrière. Preprints 2022, 2022120357. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202212.0357.v1 Boukhris, I.; Lahssini, S.; Collalti, A.; Moukrim, S.; Santini, M.; Chiti, T.; Valentini, R. Calibrating a Process-based Model to Enhance Robustness in Carbon Sequestration Simulations: the Sase of Cedrus Atlantica (Endl.) Manetti ex Carrière. Preprints 2022, 2022120357. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202212.0357.v1

Abstract

To assess the degree to which it has met its commitments under the Paris Agreement, Morocco is called upon to carry out carbon assessments and transparent evaluations. Within the forestry sector, little is known about the role of Morocco’s forests in contributing to carbon uptake. With this aim, we applied for the first time in literature the 3-PG model to Cedrus atlantica ((Endl.) Manetti ex Carrière, 1855), which represents about 131.800 ha of Morocco’s forest area (i.e. Azrou forest). Through the Differential Evolution - Markov Chains (DE-MC) we tested and assessed the sensitivity and calibrated the 3-PG model. This process-based model provided significant results regarding the carbon sequestration capacity. The results showed the following: i- Parameters related to stand properties, canopy structure, and processes, as well as biomass partitioning, are the most important or sensitive for the performance of the model; ii- The DE-MC method optimized the values of the 3-PG parameters which was confirmed by the means of Gelman-Rubin convergence test; iii- According to the predictions of the calibrated 3-PG, the Net Primary Production in the pure Azrou forest varies between 0.32 and 7.88 tC.ha−1.yr−1, it is equal in average to 4.9 tC.ha−1.yr−1, which given the total area corresponds to 7078 tC.yr−1.

Keywords

Cedrus altlantica; carbon sequestration; DE-MC (Differential Evolution - Markov chains); parameter optimization

Subject

Biology and Life Sciences, Forestry

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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