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Prediction of Windthrow Damage in Mixed Conifer-Broadleaf Stands via a Machine Learning Model

This version is not peer-reviewed.

Submitted:

16 February 2022

Posted:

17 February 2022

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Abstract
Management approaches inspired by the variability of natural disturbances are expected to produce forests in the future that will be significantly more resilient and better adapted to local environmental conditions. Due to climate change, windstorms are becoming increasingly common resulting in the destruction not only of extensive forest areas but, quite often, of small-sized and scattered forest lands that can ultimately become home to insects and disease dissemination sites. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify and record areas in the northeastern forests of Greece covered by mixed stands of conifers and broadleaves that experienced massive windthrow following local storms. Based on tree-level data, local topographic features, forest characteristics and the mechanical properties of green wood, a reliable model, to be used for the prediction of similar disturbances in the future, has been created after a thorough comparative study of the most well-known intelligent machine learning algorithms.
Keywords: 
wind damage; wind disturbance; Pinus sylvestris; Picea abies; machine learning; random forest
Subject: 
Environmental and Earth Sciences  -   Environmental Science
Copyright: This open access article is published under a Creative Commons CC BY 4.0 license, which permit the free download, distribution, and reuse, provided that the author and preprint are cited in any reuse.

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