Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Snowmelt Runoff in Himalayan Region

Version 1 : Received: 10 December 2021 / Approved: 13 December 2021 / Online: 13 December 2021 (16:06:43 CET)

How to cite: Kumar, R.; Manzoor, S.; Vishwakarma, D.K.; Kushwaha, N.L.; Elbeltagi, A.; Sushanth, K.; Kuriqi, A. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Snowmelt Runoff in Himalayan Region. Preprints 2021, 2021120213 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202112.0213.v1). Kumar, R.; Manzoor, S.; Vishwakarma, D.K.; Kushwaha, N.L.; Elbeltagi, A.; Sushanth, K.; Kuriqi, A. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Snowmelt Runoff in Himalayan Region. Preprints 2021, 2021120213 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202112.0213.v1).

Abstract

The current study was planned to simulate runoff due to the snowmelt in the Lidder River catchment of Himalayan region under climate change scenarios. A basic degree-day model, Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) was utilized to assess the hydrological consequences of change in climate. The SRM model performance during the calibration and validation was assessed using volume difference (Dv) and coefficient of determination (R2). The Dv was found as 11.7, -10.1, -11.8, 1.96, and 8.6 during 2009-2014, respectively, while the R2 is 0.96, 0.92, 0.95, 0.90, and 0.94, respectively. The Dv and R2 values indicating that the simulated snowmelt runoff has a close agreement with the observed value. The simulated findings were also assessed under the different scenarios of climate change: a) increases in precipitation by +20 %, b) temperature rise of +2 °C, and c) temperature rise of +2 °C with a 20 % increase in snow cover. In scenario "b", the simulated results showed that runoff increased by 53 % in summer (April–September). In contrast, the projected increased discharge for scenarios "a" and "c" was 37 % and 67 %, respectively. In high elevation data-scarce mountain environments, the SRM is efficient in forecasting future water supplies due to the snowmelt runoff.

Keywords

GIS; Himalayan region; SRM model; simulation; snowmelt runoff; climate change

Subject

ENGINEERING, Other

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