Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Appraisal of Drought Indices based on Climatic Variability using DrinC Software for Potwar Region in Punjab Pakistan during 1981–2019

Version 1 : Received: 25 October 2021 / Approved: 26 October 2021 / Online: 26 October 2021 (15:39:16 CEST)

How to cite: Batool, S.; Mahmood, S.A.; Shirazi, S.A. Appraisal of Drought Indices based on Climatic Variability using DrinC Software for Potwar Region in Punjab Pakistan during 1981–2019. Preprints 2021, 2021100393 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202110.0393.v1). Batool, S.; Mahmood, S.A.; Shirazi, S.A. Appraisal of Drought Indices based on Climatic Variability using DrinC Software for Potwar Region in Punjab Pakistan during 1981–2019. Preprints 2021, 2021100393 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202110.0393.v1).

Abstract

Drought is treated as a key natural disaster that affects numerous segments of the natural environment and economy throughout the world. Drought indices (DIs) were computed for Potwar region (PR) in Punjab-Pakistan, using DrinC software which are deciles, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Drought situation of 12, 9, 6 and 3 months was estimated on temporal basis. DIs obtained by deciles technique showed that for the last 39 years, 8-years are with drought severity in a cycle and are occurring every 2 to 7-years just the once repetitively. The RDI and SPI index showed the analogous trends as of deciles. Though, for RDI and SPI, the extremely dry and severely dry class was merely two years and rest of the drought affected years with respect to deciles were normally and intermediately dry. SPI is better as compared to deciles as the severity is better understood in the context of SPI. Regression analysis revealed that the RDI and SPI indices are mutually interrelated and if first 3 month precipitation is obtainable one can forecast yearly RDI. This investigation is valuable to devise future development plans to contest vulnerable drought incidents, its mitigation and impacts on socio-economic sectors.

Keywords

Drought indices; SPI; RDI; Climate variables; DrinC; Potwar; Pakistan

Subject

PHYSICAL SCIENCES, Applied Physics

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