Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

A Re-Evaluation of the Swiss Hail Suppression Experiment using Permutation Techniques shows Enhancement of Hail Energies when Seeding

Version 1 : Received: 28 July 2021 / Approved: 29 July 2021 / Online: 29 July 2021 (14:21:23 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Auf der Maur, A.; Germann, U. A Re-Evaluation of the Swiss Hail Suppression Experiment Using Permutation Techniques Shows Enhancement of Hail Energies When Seeding. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1623. Auf der Maur, A.; Germann, U. A Re-Evaluation of the Swiss Hail Suppression Experiment Using Permutation Techniques Shows Enhancement of Hail Energies When Seeding. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1623.

Journal reference: Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1623
DOI: 10.3390/atmos12121623

Abstract

Grossversuch IV is a large and well documented experiment on hail suppression by silver iodide seeding. The original 1986 evaluation remained vague, although indicating a tendency to increase hail when seeding. The strategy to deal with distributions of hail energy far from normal was not optimal. The present re-evaluation sticks to the question asked and avoids both misleading transformations and unsatisfactory meteorological predictors. The raw data show an increase by about a factor of 3 for the hail energy when seeding. This is the opposite of what seeding is supposed to do. The probability to obtain such a result by chance is below 1%, calculated by permutation and bootstrap techniques applied on the raw data. Confidence intervals were approximated by bootstrapping as well as by a new method called "correlation imposed permutation" (CIP).

Keywords

hail prevention; non-normal distributions; permutation; bootstrap; confidence intervals

Subject

EARTH SCIENCES, Atmospheric Science

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.

We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.