Auf der Maur, A.; Germann, U. A Re-Evaluation of the Swiss Hail Suppression Experiment Using Permutation Techniques Shows Enhancement of Hail Energies When Seeding. Atmosphere2021, 12, 1623.
Auf der Maur, A.; Germann, U. A Re-Evaluation of the Swiss Hail Suppression Experiment Using Permutation Techniques Shows Enhancement of Hail Energies When Seeding. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1623.
Auf der Maur, A.; Germann, U. A Re-Evaluation of the Swiss Hail Suppression Experiment Using Permutation Techniques Shows Enhancement of Hail Energies When Seeding. Atmosphere2021, 12, 1623.
Auf der Maur, A.; Germann, U. A Re-Evaluation of the Swiss Hail Suppression Experiment Using Permutation Techniques Shows Enhancement of Hail Energies When Seeding. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1623.
Abstract
Grossversuch IV is a large and well documented experiment on hail suppression by silver iodide seeding. The original 1986 evaluation remained vague, although indicating a tendency to increase hail when seeding. The strategy to deal with distributions of hail energy far from normal was not optimal. The present re-evaluation sticks to the question asked and avoids both misleading transformations and unsatisfactory meteorological predictors. The raw data show an increase by about a factor of 3 for the hail energy when seeding. This is the opposite of what seeding is supposed to do. The probability to obtain such a result by chance is below 1%, calculated by permutation and bootstrap techniques applied on the raw data. Confidence intervals were approximated by bootstrapping as well as by a new method called "correlation imposed permutation" (CIP).
Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology
Copyright:
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