Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Uncertainty Based Design Floods

Version 1 : Received: 11 February 2021 / Approved: 17 February 2021 / Online: 17 February 2021 (10:08:19 CET)

How to cite: Drobot, R.; Draghia, A.F.; Ciuiu, D.; Trandafir, R. Uncertainty Based Design Floods. Preprints 2021, 2021020363 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202102.0363.v1). Drobot, R.; Draghia, A.F.; Ciuiu, D.; Trandafir, R. Uncertainty Based Design Floods. Preprints 2021, 2021020363 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202102.0363.v1).

Abstract

Many statistical distributions approximate well the frequent values of the maximum discharges, but have a very large spread for medium or rare probabilities of exceedance. This scattering defines a range of uncertainty of maximum discharges outside the measured values. Based on the upper (U) and lower (L) values of the uncertainty interval, a maximum discharge flood (MDF) and a maximum volume flood (MVF) are defined for each probability of exceedance. This approach is in agreement with the bivariate analysis, the contour lines for a certain probability of exceedance putting into evidence an infinity of couples (maximum discharge, flood volume). If the most critical combinations are selected, the MDF and MVF are derived. Apart from maximum discharge and flood volume, the shape of the design flood, characterized by the time to peak and the total duration, is also important. The easiest way to obtain the design flood is to use an analytical curve that passes through the characteristic points of the flood. Another possibility, which was largely developed in this paper, is to normalize the floods, then to define clusters of floods with similar shapes, and to obtain an average dimensionless flood for each class. Finally, a family of design floods with different shapes, but characterized by the same parameters for each probability of exceedance, are derived. The use of these floods in the design or operation of hydrotechnical works or in the delineation of flooded areas is presented at the end.

Subject Areas

BM; POT; design flood; uncertainty interval; flood parameters; compactness coefficient; flood shape; aleatory and epistemic uncertainty

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