Preprint Short Note Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Reasonable Limiting 7-day Incidence per Hundred Thousand Value in Germany

Version 1 : Received: 13 January 2021 / Approved: 13 January 2021 / Online: 13 January 2021 (13:07:39 CET)

How to cite: Kröger, M.; Schlickeiser, R. Reasonable Limiting 7-day Incidence per Hundred Thousand Value in Germany. Preprints 2021, 2021010252 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202101.0252.v1). Kröger, M.; Schlickeiser, R. Reasonable Limiting 7-day Incidence per Hundred Thousand Value in Germany. Preprints 2021, 2021010252 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202101.0252.v1).

Abstract

Based on the hospital capacities, facts from the past experience with the Covid-19 virus and the dark number of infections D=10D_{10} a reasonable limiting value of 170/D_{10} for the monitored 7-day incidence per 100000 persons value (MSDIHT) in Germany is calculated. If the MSDIHT is held below this limiting value the German hospital system can cope with the number of new seriously infected persons without any triage decisions. A significant improvement to an almost complete testing of the population would lead to dramatic reduction of the current dark numer value to D_{10}=0.1 so that ten times higher MSDIHT values of 1700 are acceptable. Such a high limiting value would spare Germany from its currently imposed strict lockdown. The costs for such extensive and complete testing campaigns are highly justified as they are orders of magnitudes below the estimated economical costs of more than 3.6 billion Euros for each lockdown day.

Subject Areas

coronavirus; extrapolation; 7-day incidence value; Covid-19

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