Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Regional Variations in the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US

Version 1 : Received: 9 October 2020 / Approved: 13 October 2020 / Online: 13 October 2020 (10:27:10 CEST)

How to cite: Almogy, G. Regional Variations in the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US. Preprints 2020, 2020100271 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202010.0271.v1). Almogy, G. Regional Variations in the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US. Preprints 2020, 2020100271 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202010.0271.v1).

Abstract

Since identified as the pathogen responsible for an outbreak of severe respiratory distress in Wuhan, China, the 2019-nCoV coronavirus has caused over 30M cases and 1M deaths globally. Sporadic cases were identified in several states in the US from early January, and large-scale community transmission is believed to have started in late February, leading to a first spike in COVID-19 deaths and overall mortality in late April, and a second spike later in the summer. I show here that the dynamics of the pandemic were different in different regions of the US, showing a north-south pattern, with a first pandemic wave mainly in northern regions, followed by a second wave mainly in southern regions. Analysis of overall mortality data shows that the increase in mortality correlates well with COVID-19 incidence in most regions, and that from April through August COVID-19 deaths accounted for a substantial proportion of all deaths in all parts of the US.

Subject Areas

2019-nCoV; COVID-19; excess mortality; all-cause deaths; case fatality ratio; CFR; epidemiology

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