Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Regional collaborative forecast of primary energy consumption in China, Japan and South Korea based on multi-source data combination

Version 1 : Received: 10 August 2020 / Approved: 12 August 2020 / Online: 12 August 2020 (08:13:35 CEST)

How to cite: Bingchun, L.; Zhang, P.; Wang, Q. Regional collaborative forecast of primary energy consumption in China, Japan and South Korea based on multi-source data combination. Preprints 2020, 2020080277 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202008.0277.v1). Bingchun, L.; Zhang, P.; Wang, Q. Regional collaborative forecast of primary energy consumption in China, Japan and South Korea based on multi-source data combination. Preprints 2020, 2020080277 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202008.0277.v1).

Abstract

This study aims at improving the forecast accuracy of primary energy consumptions in China, Japan and South Korea and verifying the correlation in primary energy consumptions among the neighboring countries. Considering the diversity of primary energy composition, this study selects 6 components of primary energy, including oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear energy, hydropower and renewable energy as characteristic variables. A collaborative prediction model based on SVR for primary energy consumption prediction is proposed to explore the correlation of primary energy consumption among three countries in China, Japan and South Korea. The results show that there is a strong correlation between primary energy consumption when multiple countries make collaborative prediction, among which the primary energy consumption of South Korea has the largest impact on the primary energy consumption of China and Japan. In the primary energy cooperation of China-Japan-South Korea, a primary energy cooperation system with the South Korea as the link should be established through regional coordination to alleviate the shortage of traditional fossil energy.

Subject Areas

Collaborative forecast; Support vector regression; China-Japan-South Korea; Primary energy consumption

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