Article
Version 1
Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed
Analysis and Forecast of COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan
Version 1
: Received: 24 June 2020 / Approved: 29 June 2020 / Online: 29 June 2020 (10:50:47 CEST)
How to cite: Malik, A.B. Analysis and Forecast of COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan. Preprints 2020, 2020060353. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202006.0353.v1 Malik, A.B. Analysis and Forecast of COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan. Preprints 2020, 2020060353. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202006.0353.v1
Abstract
The COVID-19 infections in Pakistan are spreading at an exponential rate and a point may soon be reached where rigorous prevention measures would need to be adopted. Mathematical models can help define the scale of an epidemic and the rate at which an infection can spread in a community. I used ARIMA Model, Diffusion Model, SIRD Model and Prophet Model to forecast the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan and compared the numbers with the reported cases on the national database. Results depicts that Pakistan could hit peak number of infectious cases between June 2020 and July, 2020.
Supplementary and Associated Material
https://github.com/abdulbarimalik/COVID19PAK: my github repo 'COVID19PK' contains code files and a data file for this citation.
Keywords
COVID-19; Epidemiology; COVID-19 Analysis and Forecast in Pakistan; Forecasting; Estimation; ARIMA; Prophet; SIRD; Diffusion; Analysis
Subject
Computer Science and Mathematics, Analysis
Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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