Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Analysis and Forecast of COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan

Version 1 : Received: 24 June 2020 / Approved: 29 June 2020 / Online: 29 June 2020 (10:50:47 CEST)

How to cite: Malik, A.B. Analysis and Forecast of COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan. Preprints 2020, 2020060353 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0353.v1). Malik, A.B. Analysis and Forecast of COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan. Preprints 2020, 2020060353 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0353.v1).

Abstract

The COVID-19 infections in Pakistan are spreading at an exponential rate and a point may soon be reached where rigorous prevention measures would need to be adopted. Mathematical models can help define the scale of an epidemic and the rate at which an infection can spread in a community. I used ARIMA Model, Diffusion Model, SIRD Model and Prophet Model to forecast the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan and compared the numbers with the reported cases on the national database. Results depicts that Pakistan could hit peak number of infectious cases between June 2020 and July, 2020.

Supplementary and Associated Material

https://github.com/abdulbarimalik/COVID19PAK: my github repo 'COVID19PK' contains code files and a data file for this citation.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; Epidemiology; COVID-19 Analysis and Forecast in Pakistan; Forecasting; Estimation; ARIMA; Prophet; SIRD; Diffusion; Analysis

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