Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Assessment of Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic Related to Social and Economic Factors Globally

Version 1 : Received: 27 June 2020 / Approved: 28 June 2020 / Online: 28 June 2020 (19:55:55 CEST)

How to cite: Hassan, M.M.; Kalam, A.; Shano, S.; Nayem, M.R.K.; Rahman, M.K.; Khan, S.A.; Islam, A. Assessment of Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic Related to Social and Economic Factors Globally. Preprints 2020, 2020060346 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0346.v1). Hassan, M.M.; Kalam, A.; Shano, S.; Nayem, M.R.K.; Rahman, M.K.; Khan, S.A.; Islam, A. Assessment of Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic Related to Social and Economic Factors Globally. Preprints 2020, 2020060346 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202006.0346.v1).

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak has severely affected the social and economic conditions across this globe. Little is known about the relationship of COVID-19 with countries’ economic and socio-demographic status. Publicly available data on COVID-19 test rate, attack rate, case fatality rate, and recovery rate were analyzed in relation to country’s economic status, population density, median age, and urban population ratio. We also conducted multinomial logistic regression analysis to predict the influence of countries’ social and economic factors on COVID-19. The results revealed that the median age had significant positive correlation with attack rate (r=0.2389, p=0.003), case fatality rate (r=0.3207, p=0.000) and recovery rate (r=0.4847, p=0.000). The urbanization has positive significant correlation with recovery rate (r=0.1957, p= 0.016). The multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed low-income countries are less likely to have an increased recovery rate (p=0.000) and attack rate (p=0.016) compare to high-income countries. The lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries are less likely to have an increased recovery rate (p=0.000 and p=0.001, respectively) compared to high-income countries. Based on the result of this study, these economic and socio-demographic factors should consider in designing appropriate preventive measures as a next step. The low and lower-middle-income countries should invest more in health care services to lower the case fatality rate and increase test and recovery rates as part of pandemic preparation like COVID-19. As the number of COVID-19 attacks, death and recovery rates are constantly changing; however, the intensive study is required to obtain a clear picture.

Subject Areas

COVID-19, assessment; global; social and economic factors; correlation and regression analysis

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