Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Strategic Assessment of COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh: Comparative Lockdown Scenario Analysis, Public Perception, and Management Perspectives

Version 1 : Received: 29 April 2020 / Approved: 30 April 2020 / Online: 30 April 2020 (22:47:23 CEST)

How to cite: Bodrud-Doza, M.; Shammi, M.; Islam, A.; Rahman, M. Strategic Assessment of COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh: Comparative Lockdown Scenario Analysis, Public Perception, and Management Perspectives. Preprints 2020, 2020040550 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0550.v1). Bodrud-Doza, M.; Shammi, M.; Islam, A.; Rahman, M. Strategic Assessment of COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh: Comparative Lockdown Scenario Analysis, Public Perception, and Management Perspectives. Preprints 2020, 2020040550 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0550.v1).

Abstract

Global pandemic COVID-19 is in stage 4 of widespread local transmission in Bangladesh- the country which did not have a noteworthy health policy and legislative structures to combat COVID-19 like a pandemic. Early strategic planning and groundwork for evolving and established challenges are crucial to assemble resources and react in an appropriate timely manner. This article, therefore, focuses on the public perception of comparative lockdown scenario analysis and how they may affect the sustainable development and the strategic management regime of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh socioeconomically. Response from 159 respondents was collected via a purposive sampling survey method through a questionnaire, and 54 statements were collected for scenario analysis. Datasets were analyzed through a set of statistical techniques including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), hierarchical Cluster Analysis (CA), Pearson’s correlation matrix (PCM), Linear regression analysis (LRA), and psychometric characteristics were included in the Classical Test Theory (CTT) analysis. There were good associations among the lockdown scenarios and response strategies to be formulated. A strong significant positive relationship was observed between people who will start moving towards regular life and the formal and informal economic activities will be started in lockdown scenario 1(r=0.671, p<0.01). The scenario one describes how the death and infection rate will increase if Govt withdraw the partial lockdown before 40 to 50 days. Scenario 2 outlines people’s movement will enable low-level community transmission of COVID-19 with the infection and death rate will increase slowly (r=0.540, p<0.01). Moreover, there will be less supply of necessities of daily use with a price hike (r= 0.680, p<0.01). Scenario 3, full lock down will reduce the community transmission and death from COVID-19 (r=0.545, p<0.01). Moreover, along with the other problems gender discrimination and gender-based violence will increase rapidly (r=0.661, p<0.01). Form regression analysis, due to full lockdown, the formal and informal business, economy and education sector will be hampered severely (R=0.695), there was a strong association between the loss of livelihood and unemployment rate will increase due to business shutdown (p<0.01) and poor communities both in urban and rural areas will be affected severely (p<0.01).All these will further aggravate the humanitarian needs of the most vulnerable groups in the country in the coming months to be followed which needs to be dealt with proper response plans. It will undoubtedly affect the targets of global sustainable development goals (SDGs) of 2030 and all other development targets.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; strategic management; scenario analysis; response plans; lockdown

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