Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Forecasting Unusual Trend of COVID-19 Progression in Pakistan

Version 1 : Received: 26 April 2020 / Approved: 29 April 2020 / Online: 29 April 2020 (10:38:30 CEST)

How to cite: MALIK, S.A.; Javed, A. Forecasting Unusual Trend of COVID-19 Progression in Pakistan. Preprints 2020, 2020040504 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0504.v1). MALIK, S.A.; Javed, A. Forecasting Unusual Trend of COVID-19 Progression in Pakistan. Preprints 2020, 2020040504 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0504.v1).

Abstract

The observed data of COVID-19 progression in Pakistan for first 50 days from the first patient been reported has shown quite an unusual trend which is in opposition to clear exponential spread pattern of any infectious disease. The data of positive cases of 50 days of disease progression has been collected from COVID-19 dashboard of Pakistan and analyzed to see the graphical trend and to forecast the behaviour of disease progression for next 30 days. Mathematical equations regarding exponential growth are used to analyse the disease progression and different possible trajectories are plotted to understand the approximate trend pattern. The possible projections estimated 20k-456k positive cases within 80 days of disease spread in Pakistan. Although, the disease progression pattern is not perfectly exponential, it is still threatening a major fraction of susceptible population and demands effective strategic planning and control.

Subject Areas

COVID-19; Pakistan; exponential growth; projection

Comments (4)

Comment 1
Received: 29 April 2020
Commenter: Zeeshan Khalid
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: Excellent work done by both authers.
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Comment 2
Received: 29 April 2020
Commenter: Dawood
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: After all its non perdictable non equational growth.
A good set of Analytical progression is
shown under varities if possibilities .
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Comment 3
Received: 29 April 2020
Commenter: Dawood
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: Despite all the non perdictable growth of covid-19, An superb analytical and equational possibilities of spread in past and near future statisitics have been put in the article above.
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Comment 4
Received: 30 April 2020
Commenter: Ahmed Shah
The commenter has declared there is no conflict of interests.
Comment: Keep it up.
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