Preprint Brief Report Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Transmission Potential and Severity of COVID-19 in Pakistan

Version 1 : Received: 30 March 2020 / Approved: 1 April 2020 / Online: 1 April 2020 (09:19:30 CEST)

How to cite: Raza, S.; Rasheed, M.A.; Rashid, M.K. Transmission Potential and Severity of COVID-19 in Pakistan. Preprints 2020, 2020040004 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0004.v1). Raza, S.; Rasheed, M.A.; Rashid, M.K. Transmission Potential and Severity of COVID-19 in Pakistan. Preprints 2020, 2020040004 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202004.0004.v1).

Abstract

As of 26 March 2020, Pakistan had 1179 cases of COVID-19, with most 421 cases from Sindh, 394 cases, 131 cases, 123 cases, 84 cases, 25 cases and 01 cases from Punjab, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Islamabad Capital Territory, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir respectively. Travel-related cases were the main source of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the early phase of the pandemic in Pakistan. Nevertheless, cases of local virus transmission are increasing day by day. As of 26 March 2020, nine deaths have been reported from COVID-19. The case fatality rate is 0.8%, which is less compare to China, Italy, USA, and Iran. The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model of epidemiological analysis predicts that almost 90 million population will be infected in the coming days with 5% critical cases that need health care facilities. However, the Pakistan health care system cannot provide services to this much population. Hence, we need to act timely to reduce this number by restricting local transmission of the disease. This can be done by mass testing, quarantine, isolation and social distancing of the active coronavirus cases in Pakistan. Moreover, better communication between the authorities is very much required to control disease transmission.

Subject Areas

COVID-19, Pakistan, Economic Losses, Disease Spread, SARS-CoV-2

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