Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Global Incidence and Mortality Patterns and Forecast of Pedestrian Road Traffic Injuries by Socio-Demographic Index Findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study

Version 1 : Received: 13 February 2020 / Approved: 16 February 2020 / Online: 16 February 2020 (13:48:53 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Khan, M.A.B.; Grivna, M.; Nauman, J.; Soteriades, E.S.; Cevik, A.A.; Hashim, M.J.; Govender, R.; Al Azeezi, S.R. Global Incidence and Mortality Patterns of Pedestrian Road Traffic Injuries by Sociodemographic Index, with Forecasting: Findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 2135. Khan, M.A.B.; Grivna, M.; Nauman, J.; Soteriades, E.S.; Cevik, A.A.; Hashim, M.J.; Govender, R.; Al Azeezi, S.R. Global Incidence and Mortality Patterns of Pedestrian Road Traffic Injuries by Sociodemographic Index, with Forecasting: Findings from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 Study. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 2135.

Journal reference: Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 2135
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17062135

Abstract

(1) Background: Pedestrian injuries (PIs) represent a significant proportion of road traffic injuries. We aimed at investigating the incidence and mortality of PIs in different age groups and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) categories between 1990 and 2017. (2) Method: Estimates of age-standardized incidence and mortality along with trends of PIs by SDI levels were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease from 1990 to 2017. We also calculated forecasts until 2040. (3) Results: Globally, PIs incidence increased by 3.31% (–9.94 to 16.56) in 2017 compared to 1990. Men have a higher incidence of PIs than women. Forecasted incidence was 132.02 (127.37 to 136.66) per 100,000 population in 2020, 101.52 (65.99 to 137.05) in 2030 and reduced further to 71.02 (10.62 to 152.65) by 2040. Globally across all SDI categories, there was a decreasing trend in mortality due to PIs with the global estimated percentage reduction of 37.12% (–45.19 to –29.04). (4) Conclusions: The results show that PIs are still a burden for all SDI categories despite some variation. Although incidence and mortality are expected to decrease globally, some SDI categories may require particular attention in addition to specific vulnerable age groups. Further studies addressing incidence and mortality patterns in vulnerable SDI categories are needed.

Subject Areas

road traffic injuries; public safety; global burden; economic loss; health policy; health care system; health indicators; injury prevention

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