Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Stream Flow and Rainfall Trend Analysis of the Ssezibwa Catchment

Version 1 : Received: 13 September 2019 / Approved: 16 September 2019 / Online: 16 September 2019 (16:35:57 CEST)

How to cite: Enos Bahati, M.; Lawal, A.Q.T.; Peter, B.A.; Matovu, S. Stream Flow and Rainfall Trend Analysis of the Ssezibwa Catchment. Preprints 2019, 2019090168 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201909.0168.v1). Enos Bahati, M.; Lawal, A.Q.T.; Peter, B.A.; Matovu, S. Stream Flow and Rainfall Trend Analysis of the Ssezibwa Catchment. Preprints 2019, 2019090168 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201909.0168.v1).

Abstract

The study focused on two climatic variables i.e. precipitation and stream flow for analysing change in trend of rainfall for the River Ssezibwa Catchment area and stream flow of River Ssezibwa. This Catchment is found in the districts of Mukono and Buikwe in Uganda. In this area agriculture is majorly dependent on rainfall and irrigation on a small scale. However, rainfall occurrence has become unpredictable over the past few years as result of the changes in patterns of weather. This has caused severe effects on the agricultural cropping system as well as caused negative effects on the natural water resources. Stream flow data of 57 years (1960 – 2017) and rainfall data for 35 years (1982 – 2017) on a daily basis was analysed to find out the trend and detect change point. Trend analysis was done by using the non-parametric analysis while the change point detection was carried out by using the Pettit test (1979).Magnitude of trend for the time series data was carried out using Sen’s Slope estimator and Mann – Kendall test was done to determine the trend. Results from the statistical analysis highlighted that; for stream flow the trend was generally positive and change point detected to be in the year 2000 while for rainfall data analysis indicated that the trend was predominantly negative and change point was in the year 1998.

Subject Areas

Stream flow trend; Rainfall trend; Mann – Kendall trend; Pettit test, Sen’s Slope Estimator; Trend analysis; Change point

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