Preprint Article Version 2 This version is not peer-reviewed

Geospatial-Temporal and Demand Models for Opioid Admissions, Implications for Policy

Version 1 : Received: 12 May 2019 / Approved: 13 May 2019 / Online: 13 May 2019 (14:36:07 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 13 June 2019 / Approved: 18 June 2019 / Online: 18 June 2019 (11:15:56 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Fulton, L.; Dong, Z.; Zhan, F.B.; Kruse, C.S.; Granados, P.S. Geospatial-Temporal and Demand Models for Opioid Admissions, Implications for Policy. J. Clin. Med. 2019, 8, 993. Fulton, L.; Dong, Z.; Zhan, F.B.; Kruse, C.S.; Granados, P.S. Geospatial-Temporal and Demand Models for Opioid Admissions, Implications for Policy. J. Clin. Med. 2019, 8, 993.

Journal reference: J. Clin. Med. 2019, 8, 993
DOI: 10.3390/jcm8070993

Abstract

Background:  As the opioid epidemic continues, understanding the geospatial, temporal and demand patterns is important for policymakers to assign resources and interdict individual, organization, and country-level bad actors.  Methods:  GIS geospatial-temporal analysis and extreme-gradient boosted random forests evaluate ICD-10 F11 opioid-related admissions and admission rates using geospatial analysis, demand analysis, and explanatory models, respectively. The period of analysis was January 2016 through September 2018.  Results:  The analysis shows existing high opioid admissions in Chicago and New Jersey with emerging areas in Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. High rates of admission (claims per 10,000 population) exist in the Appalachian area and on the Northeastern seaboard. Explanatory models suggest that hospital overall workload and financial variables might be used for allocating opioid-related treatment funds effectively. Gradient-boosted random forest models accounted for 87.8% of the variability of claims on blinded 20% test data. Conclusions: Based on the GIS analysis, opioid admissions appear to have spread geographically, while higher frequency rates are still found in some regions.  Interdiction efforts require demand-analysis such as that provided in this study to allocate scarce resources for supply-side and demand-side interdiction: prevention, treatment, and enforcement. Based on GIS analysis, the opioid epidemic is likely to spread or diffuse through the country, and interdiction efforts require demand-analysis such as that provided in this study to allocate scarce resources for supply-side and demand-side interdiction: prevention, treatment, and enforcement.

Subject Areas

opioids, GIS, random forests

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.