preprints.org > social sciences > econometrics & statistics > doi: 10.20944/preprints201811.0329.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 12 November 2018 / Approved: 14 November 2018 / Online: 14 November 2018 (09:52:29 CET)

This paper based on systems - theoretic approach to the definition of a country's GDP as not directly observable characteristic of system state. Leontief dynamic model is generalized to take into account the stimulating effect of consumption on GDP growth. In consumption, apart from final consumption, terms are considered: balance of foreign trade, fictitious investments and hidden costs. The Kalman filter uses Rosstat's gross output (for system output) and final consumption (for system control) data from 1995 to 2015. It is concluded that if in the years 2014, 2015 it was possible to increase consumption by 5% by, say, price cuts or some increase in money supply, then GDP would be greater by about 2.5%. GDP real values in recent years are most likely greater than official values. Fictitious investments and hidden costs are found in the amount of up to third the value of final consumption. The accuracy of one-year forecasts of true GDP by the methodology of this article is approximately 1.5%.

gross domestic product; Leontief dynamic model; investments in production capital; Kalman filter

SOCIAL SCIENCES, Econometrics & Statistics