Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Linear or non Linear modeling for ENSO dynamics?

Version 1 : Received: 12 September 2018 / Approved: 13 September 2018 / Online: 13 September 2018 (13:12:52 CEST)
Version 2 : Received: 7 November 2018 / Approved: 7 November 2018 / Online: 7 November 2018 (16:30:41 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Bianucci, M.; Capotondi, A.; Mannella, R.; Merlino, S. Linear or Nonlinear Modeling for ENSO Dynamics? Atmosphere 2018, 9, 435. Bianucci, M.; Capotondi, A.; Mannella, R.; Merlino, S. Linear or Nonlinear Modeling for ENSO Dynamics? Atmosphere 2018, 9, 435.

Abstract

Observed ENSO statistics exhibits a non-gaussian behavior, which is indicative of the presence of nonlinear processes. In this paper we use the Recharge Oscillator model (ROM), a largely used Low-Order Model (LOM) of ENSO, as well as methodologies borrowed from the field of statistical mechanics to identify which aspects of the system may give rise to nonlinearities that are consistent with the observed ENSO statistics. In particular, we are interested in understanding whether the nonlinearities reside in the system dynamics or in the fast atmospheric forcing. Our results indicate that one important dynamical nonlinearity often introduced in the ROM cannot justify a non-gaussian system behavior, while the nonlinearity in the atmospheric forcing can instead produce a statistics similar to the observed. The implications of the non-Gaussian character of ENSO statistics for the frequency of extreme El Nino events is then examined.

Keywords

El Nino Southern Oscillation; ENSO, El Nino extreme events;

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Environmental Science

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our Diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
* All users must log in before leaving a comment
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.