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Behind the Scenarios: World View, Ideologies, Philosophies An Analysis of Hidden Determinants and Acceptance Obstacles Illustrated by the ALARM Scenarios
Spangenberg, J.H. Behind the Scenarios: World View, Ideologies, Philosophies. An Analysis of Hidden Determinants and Acceptance Obstacles Illustrated by the ALARM Scenarios. Sustainability2018, 10, 2556.
Spangenberg, J.H. Behind the Scenarios: World View, Ideologies, Philosophies. An Analysis of Hidden Determinants and Acceptance Obstacles Illustrated by the ALARM Scenarios. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2556.
Spangenberg, J.H. Behind the Scenarios: World View, Ideologies, Philosophies. An Analysis of Hidden Determinants and Acceptance Obstacles Illustrated by the ALARM Scenarios. Sustainability2018, 10, 2556.
Spangenberg, J.H. Behind the Scenarios: World View, Ideologies, Philosophies. An Analysis of Hidden Determinants and Acceptance Obstacles Illustrated by the ALARM Scenarios. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2556.
Abstract
In situations of uncertainty, scenarios serve as input for evidence-based decision making. However, past experience shows that not all scenarios are treated equally, and we hypothise that only those based ion a world view shared by decision makers are perceived as credible and receive full attention. While intuitively plausible, this hypothesis has not been analysed by quantitative correlation analyses, so instead of drawing on quantitative data the paper analyses the archetypical scenarios developed in the ALARM project to substantiate the plausibility by a comparative analysis of world views, value systems and policy orientations. Shock scenarios are identified as a means to explore the possibility space of future developments beyond the linear developments models and most scenario storylines suggest. The analysis shows that the typical scenarios are based on mutually exclusive assumptions. In conclusion, a comparison of storyline and empirical data can reveal misperceptions, policy failures and the need to rethink world views as a necessary step to open up to new challenges. Deeply held beliefs will make this a transition unlikely to happen without severs crises, if not dedicated efforts to reveal the role of world views for scenarios and policies are undertaken.
Keywords
scenarios; world views; values; policies; models and modes of science
Subject
Arts and Humanities, Philosophy
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
