Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market

Version 1 : Received: 4 April 2018 / Approved: 10 April 2018 / Online: 10 April 2018 (15:53:43 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Djurdjevic, S.; Lee, P.N.; Weitkunat, R.; Sponsiello-Wang, Z.; Lüdicke, F.; Baker, G. Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market. Healthcare 2018, 6, 47. Djurdjevic, S.; Lee, P.N.; Weitkunat, R.; Sponsiello-Wang, Z.; Lüdicke, F.; Baker, G. Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market. Healthcare 2018, 6, 47.

Abstract

Philip Morris International (PMI) has developed the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) to quantify, in the absence of epidemiological data, the effects of marketing a candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP) on the public health of a whole population. Various simulations were performed to understand the harm reduction impact on the U.S. population over a 20-year period under various scenarios. The overall reduction in smoking attributable deaths (SAD) over the 20-year period was estimated as 934,947 if smoking completely went away and between 516,944 and 780,433 if cMRTP use completely replaces smoking. The reduction in SADs was estimated as 172,458 for the World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 Target and between 70,274 and 90,155 for the gradual cMRTP uptake. Combining the scenarios (WHO 2025 Target and cMRTP uptake), the reductions were between 256,453 and 268,796, depending on the cMRTP effective dose. These results show how a cMRTP can reduce overall population harm additionally to existing tobacco control efforts.

Keywords

public; tobacco; risk; modified; reduced; nicotine; non-combustible; health; smoking; harm

Subject

Medicine and Pharmacology, Complementary and Alternative Medicine

Comments (0)

We encourage comments and feedback from a broad range of readers. See criteria for comments and our Diversity statement.

Leave a public comment
Send a private comment to the author(s)
* All users must log in before leaving a comment
Views 0
Downloads 0
Comments 0
Metrics 0


×
Alerts
Notify me about updates to this article or when a peer-reviewed version is published.
We use cookies on our website to ensure you get the best experience.
Read more about our cookies here.