Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market

Version 1 : Received: 4 April 2018 / Approved: 10 April 2018 / Online: 10 April 2018 (15:53:43 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Djurdjevic, S.; Lee, P.N.; Weitkunat, R.; Sponsiello-Wang, Z.; Lüdicke, F.; Baker, G. Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market. Healthcare 2018, 6, 47. Djurdjevic, S.; Lee, P.N.; Weitkunat, R.; Sponsiello-Wang, Z.; Lüdicke, F.; Baker, G. Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market. Healthcare 2018, 6, 47.

Journal reference: Healthcare 2018, 6, 47
DOI: 10.3390/healthcare6020047

Abstract

Philip Morris International (PMI) has developed the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) to quantify, in the absence of epidemiological data, the effects of marketing a candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP) on the public health of a whole population. Various simulations were performed to understand the harm reduction impact on the U.S. population over a 20-year period under various scenarios. The overall reduction in smoking attributable deaths (SAD) over the 20-year period was estimated as 934,947 if smoking completely went away and between 516,944 and 780,433 if cMRTP use completely replaces smoking. The reduction in SADs was estimated as 172,458 for the World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 Target and between 70,274 and 90,155 for the gradual cMRTP uptake. Combining the scenarios (WHO 2025 Target and cMRTP uptake), the reductions were between 256,453 and 268,796, depending on the cMRTP effective dose. These results show how a cMRTP can reduce overall population harm additionally to existing tobacco control efforts.

Subject Areas

public; tobacco; risk; modified; reduced; nicotine; non-combustible; health; smoking; harm

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