Preprint Article Version 1 This version is not peer-reviewed

Assessment of WRF/WRF-Hydro Coupling during an Extreme Weather Event in a Hyper Arid Region

Version 1 : Received: 16 March 2018 / Approved: 16 March 2018 / Online: 16 March 2018 (13:37:53 CET)

How to cite: Wehbe, Y.; Temimi, M.; Weston, M.; Chaouch, N.; Branch, O.; Schwitalla, T.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Al Mandous, A. Assessment of WRF/WRF-Hydro Coupling during an Extreme Weather Event in a Hyper Arid Region. Preprints 2018, 2018030136 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201803.0136.v1). Wehbe, Y.; Temimi, M.; Weston, M.; Chaouch, N.; Branch, O.; Schwitalla, T.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Al Mandous, A. Assessment of WRF/WRF-Hydro Coupling during an Extreme Weather Event in a Hyper Arid Region. Preprints 2018, 2018030136 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201803.0136.v1).

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.7.1, is coupled with its hydrological modeling extension package (Hydro) and used in this study to assess the impact on precipitation forecasts over the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Six-hourly forecasted forcing records at 0.5o spatial resolution obtained from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) are used to drive the three nested downscaling domains for a recent flood-triggering storm on March 9th, 2016. Ground and satellite observations over the UAE are employed to validate the model results. Precipitation, soil moisture, and cloud fraction retrievals from GPM (30-minute 0.1o product), AMSR2 (daily 0.1o product), and MODIS (daily 5 km product), respectively, are used to assess the model output. The Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), relative biase (rBIAS) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are used as performance measures. Results show reductions of 24% and 13% in RMSE and rBIAS measures, respectively, in precipitation forecasts from the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro model configuration, when compared to standalone WRF. The coupled system also shows improvements in global radiation forecasts, with reductions of 45% and 12% for RMSE and rBIAS, respectively. The demonstrated improvements, at the local scale, promise higher accuracy of hydrologic forecasts and flashflood guidance systems in the region.

Subject Areas

United Arab Emirates; hyper arid; land surface-atmospheric interactions; WRF; precipitation; soil moisture

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