Preprint Article Version 1 This version not peer reviewed

Error Evolution in Multi-Step Ahead Streamflow Forecasting for the Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs

Version 1 : Received: 18 October 2017 / Approved: 19 October 2017 / Online: 19 October 2017 (02:34:27 CEST)

How to cite: Papacharalampous, G.; Tyralis, H.; Koutsoyiannis, D. Error Evolution in Multi-Step Ahead Streamflow Forecasting for the Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs. Preprints 2017, 2017100129 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201710.0129.v1). Papacharalampous, G.; Tyralis, H.; Koutsoyiannis, D. Error Evolution in Multi-Step Ahead Streamflow Forecasting for the Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs. Preprints 2017, 2017100129 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201710.0129.v1).

Abstract

Multi-step ahead streamflow forecasting is of practical interest for the operation of hydropower reservoirs. We provide generalized results on the error evolution in multi-step ahead forecasting by conducting several large-scale experiments based on simulations. We also present a multiple-case study using monthly time series of streamflow. Our findings suggest that some forecasting methods are more useful than others. However, the errors computed at each time step of a forecast horizon within a specific case study strongly depend on the case examined and can be either small or large, regardless of the forecasting method used and the time step of interest.

Subject Areas

hydropower; errors; multi-step ahead forecasting; recursive method; simulations

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