Error Evolution in Multi-Step Ahead Streamflow Forecasting for the Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs

Georgia Papacharalampous; Hristos Tyralis; Demetris Koutsoyiannis

doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0129.v1

Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Version 1 : Received: 18 October 2017 / Approved: 19 October 2017 / Online: 19 October 2017 (02:34:27 CEST)

Multi-step ahead streamflow forecasting is of practical interest for the operation of hydropower reservoirs. We provide generalized results on the error evolution in multi-step ahead forecasting by conducting several large-scale experiments based on simulations. We also present a multiple-case study using monthly time series of streamflow. Our findings suggest that some forecasting methods are more useful than others. However, the errors computed at each time step of a forecast horizon within a specific case study strongly depend on the case examined and can be either small or large, regardless of the forecasting method used and the time step of interest.

hydropower; errors; multi-step ahead forecasting; recursive method; simulations

Engineering, Civil Engineering

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Error Evolution in Multi-Step Ahead Streamflow Forecasting for the Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs

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