Portfolio optimization is a mathematical formulation whose objective is to maximize returns while minimizing risks. A lot of improvement in the model has been made, including adding practical constraints. With the growing of shares trading, the problem becomes dimensionally very large. In this paper, we propose the usage of modified Biogeography-Based Optimization to solve the large scale constrained portfolio optimization. Results indicate the effectiveness of the method used.

The article takes the case of the adoption of machine learning in a steel manufacturing process through a platform provided by a novel Canadian startup, Canvass Analytics. This way the steel company could optimize the process in a blast furnace. The content of the paper includes a conceptual framework on key factors around steel manufacturing and machine learning. Method: The article takes the case of the adoption of machine learning in a steel manufacturing process through a platform provided by a novel Canadian startup, Canvass Analytics. This way the steel company could optimize the process in a blast furnace. The content of the paper includes a conceptual framework on key factors around steel manufacturing and machine learning. Results: This case is relevant for the authors by the way the business model proposed by the startup attempts to democratize Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in industrial environments. This way the startup delivers value to facilitate traditional industries to obtain better operational results, and contribute to a better use of resources. Conclusion: This work is focused on opportunities that arise around Artificial Intelligence as a driver for new business and operating models. Besides the paper looks into the framework of the adoption of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in a traditional industrial environment towards a smart manufacturing approach.

Baggage overweight is a significant phenomenon in the air travel in- dustry which is both regulated by the governments and highly profitable for the airlines. The recent years increase in airlines' profits is attributed to so-called ancillary payments – all consumer costs excluding the actual transportation fare. Baggage overweight fees, being a part of such pay- ments, have high profit-generation potential. Is the pricing for baggage overweight positioned correctly? The rationality of policies currently used by airlines is questionable, as they lack a customer-oriented marketing ap- proach. The general purpose of this research is to explore the possibilities of rational baggage overweight pricing for airlines by developing a multi- level price optimization model aimed to maximize company revenue. The modeling is based on determining consumer Willingness-To- Pay values for baggage overweight, and providing an optimal ticket price for them to maximize company expected revenue. The total profit value is forecasted too, based on the company market share and revenue level.

Mixing is considered as a critical process parameter (CPP) during process development due to its significant influence on reaction selectivity and process safety. Nevertheless, mixing issues are difficult to identify and solve owing to their complexity and dependence on knowledge of kinetics and hydrodynamics. In this paper, we proposed an optimization methodology using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) based compartmental modelling to improve mixing and reaction selectivity. More importantly, we have demonstrated that through the implementation of surrogate-based optimization, the proposed methodology can be used as a computationally non-intensive way for rapid process development of reaction unit operations. For illustration purpose, reaction selectivity of a process with Bourne competitive reaction network is discussed. Results demonstrate that we can improve reaction selectivity by dynamically controlling rates and locations of feeding in the reactor. The proposed methodology incorporates mechanistic understanding of the reaction kinetics together with an efficient optimization algorithm to determine the optimal process operation and thus can serve as a tool for quality-by-design (QbD) during product development stage.

Multiobjective optimization plays an increasingly important role in modern applications, where several criteria are often of equal importance. The task in multiobjective optimization and multiobjective optimal control is therefore to compute the set of optimal compromises (the Pareto set) between the conflicting objectives. The advances in algorithms and the increasing interest in Pareto optimal solutions have led to a wide range of new applications related to optimal and feedback control which results in new challenges such as expensive models or real-time applicability. Since the Pareto set generally consists of an infinite number of solutions, the computational effort can quickly become challenging which is particularly problematic when the objectives are costly to evaluate or when a solution has to be presented very quickly. This article gives an overview over recent developments in accelerating multiobjective optimal control for complex problems where either PDE constraints are present or where a feedback behavior has to be achieved. In the first case, surrogate models yield significant speed-ups. Besides classical meta-modeling techniques for multiobjective optimization, a promising alternative for control problems is to introduce a surrogate model for the system dynamics. In the case of real-time requirements, various promising model predictive control approaches have been proposed, using either fast online solvers or offline-online decomposition. We also briefly comment on dimension reduction in many-objective optimization problems as another technique for reducing the numerical effort.

The shape of the knee is a chain-like structure of an ellipsoid. This suggests that, in the latest study, in addition to rolling, there is slippage in the motion of the knee. This paper selects a mechanical braking model for cattle based on two mechanical structures in different directions at the joints. The experimental results show that the modified dynamical system has strong chaotic properties. This can be one of the basis for judging various health states.

Small submersible drainage pumps discharge leaking water and rainwater in buildings. In an emergency (e.g., heavy rain or accident), monitoring the flow rate in advance is necessary to enable optimal operation, considering the point where the pump operates abnormally when the water level increases rapidly. In another, pump performance optimization is crucial for energy saving policy. Therefore, it is necessary to meet the challenges of submersible pump systems, including sustainability and pump efficiency. The final goal of this study is to develop an energy-saving, high-efficiency submersible drainage pump capable of responding to emergencies. In particular, this paper targeted the hydraulic performance improvement of a submersible drainage pump model. Before the development of driving mode-related technology capable of emergency response, we first tried to find a way to improve the performance characteristics of the existing submersible drainage pump. Rather than designing a new pump, we disassembled the current pump and reverse engineering. Then, numerical simulation was performed to analyze the flow characteristics and efficiency of the pump. Then, the pump test was carried out to obtain the performance and validated with numerical results. Results revealed that changing the cross-sectional shape of the impeller reduced the flow separation and enhanced velocity and pressure distributions. Also, it reduced the power and increased efficiency. Results also showed that the pump's efficiency increased to 5.56% at a discharge rate of 0.17 m3/min, and overall average efficiency increased to 6.53%. In addition, the submersible pump design method could be suitable for the optimized pump's impeller and casing numerically. This paper can provide insight and information on the design optimization of pumps.

Sea surface wind forecasts in the Adriatic Sea often suffer for unadequate modelling, especially for the wind speed. This has detrimental effects on the accuracy of sea level and storm surge predictions. We present a numerical method to reduce the bias between the sea surface wind observed by the scatterometers and that supplied by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric model, for storm surge forecasting applications. The method, called “wind bias mitigation”, relies on scatterometer observations to determine a multiplicative factor ∆ws which modulates the standard model wind in order to decrease the bias between scatterometer and model. We compare four different mathematical approaches to this method, for a total of eight different formulations of the multiplicative factor ∆ws. Four datasets are used for the assessment of the eight different bias mitigation methods: a collection of 29 Storm Surge Events (SEVs) cases in the years 2004-2014, a collection of 48 SEVs in the years 2013-2016, a collection of 364 cases of random sea level conditions in the same period, and a collection of the seven SEVs in 2012-2016 that were worst predicted by the Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree, Comune di Venezia (Tide Forecast and Early Warning Centre of the Venice Municipality - CPSM). The statistical analysis shows that the bias mitigation procedures supplies a mean wind speed more accurate than the standard forecast, when compared with scatterometer observations, in more than 70% of the analyzed cases.

The work safety standardization of enterprises based on the traditional work safety theory has played a significant role in reducing the number of accidents and improving work safety to some extent in China. However, some problems are coming with the work safety standardization of enterprises developing constantly in China. On the one hand, it is not combined with the actual situation of the enterprise, lacking pertinence and specificity, these defects resulted that it is not integrated with original safety production management system of enterprise and make it difficult to carry out. On the other hand, there is a lack of systematic management methods for the work safety management system of enterprise, most of enterprises only pay attention to the inspection result rather than the process control. This means after the check of the government, many enterprises will relax to carry out the system. This paper puts forward a new method for optimizing the standardization management mode of work safety based on the Viable System Model(VSM), which can solve the defects of work safety standardization of enterprises management system. An optimization model of work safety standardization based on VSM was construct for explaining the process optimization and control of work safety standardization management. It can improve the connectivity between the enterprise and the government. The conclusion of this paper can provide reference for achieving the development and optimization of work safety standardization of enterprises in China.

The high penetration of intermittence resources in the energy market accelerates significantly the decarbonization process but, on the other hand, the electrical system has to face the problem of unbalances. Renewable Energies Sources (RES) are hard to precisely forecast, and power plants are not able to predict the amount of energy that they can provide far from the real time delivery. In this frame, the intraday market gets a fundamental role allowing agents to adjust their position close to the delivery time. In this work we suggest an agent-based model of intraday market combined with genetics algorithms to understand what the best strategy could be adopted by players in order to optimize the market efficiency in terms of welfare and unsold quantity. In the first part we show the effect on the market prices of different scenarios in which players aim at maximizing their revenues and selling/buying all their volumes. In the second part we show the effect of a particular genetic algorithm on the model, focusing on how agents can adapt their strategy to enhance the market efficiency. Comparative analyses are also performed to investigate how the welfare of the system increases as well as the unsold quantity decrease when genetic algorithm is introduced

High-strength low-alloy steels (HSLAs) are widely used in the structural body components of many domestic motor vehicles owing to their better mechanical properties and greater resistance. The real production process of HSLA steelmaking can be regarded as a model that builds on the relationship between process parameters and product quality attributes. A surrogate modeling method is used, and the resulting production process model can be applied to predict the optimal manufacturing process parameters. We used different methods in this paper to build such a surrogate model, including linear regression, random forests, support vector regression, multilayer perception, and a simplified VGG model. We then applied three bio-inspired search algorithms, namely particle swarm optimization, the artificial bee colony algorithm, and the firefly algorithm, to search for the optimal controllable manufacturing process parameters. Through experiments on 9,000 test samples used for building the surrogate model, and 299 test samples for making the optimal process parameter selection, we found that the combination of a simplified VGG model and the firefly algorithm was the most successful at reaching a success rate of 100%—in other words, when the product quality attributes of all test samples satisfy the mechanical requirements of the end products.

Ultra-wideband wavelength division multiplexed networks enable operators to use more effectively the bandwidth offered by a single fiber pair and thus make significant savings, both in operational and capital expenditures. The main objective of this study is to minimize optical node resources, such as transponders, multiplexers and wavelength selective switches, needed to provide and maintain high quality of network services, in ultra-wideband wavelength division multiplexed networks, at low cost. A model based on integer programming is proposed, which includes a detailed description of optical network nodal resources. The developed optimization tools are used to study the ultra-wideband wavelength division multiplexed network performance when compared with the traditional C-band wavelength division multiplexed networks. The analysis is carried out for realistic networks of different dimensions and traffic demand sets.

In this paper, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method has been used to simulate the gas flow and the catalytic hydrogenation process of the C-2 hydrogenation adiabatic reactor in a practical ethylene production unit of a chemical plant. The laminar finite-rate model was used for the chemical reaction model. The standard two-equation model was used for the turbulence model. The exponent-function kinetic model was used for the reaction dynamics model. The simulation results were in good agreement with the actual industrial data obtained from the C-2 hydrogenation reactor, and the distributions of reaction parameters such as temperature and component concentrations in the reactor were further analyzed. Based on the validated CFD models, the structure and operating conditions of the reactor, as well as hydrogen load distribution ratios, are simulated for comparing the comprehensive performance metrics of ethylene selectivity and acetylene conversion rate; as a result, we can obtain the optimal temperature of 312 K, the optimal hydrogen/acetylene ratio of 0.10 as well as the optimal hydrogen load distribution ratio of 4:4:2, and the diameter/height ratio exerts a marginal effect on the selectivity, conversion rate and harmonic mean of the reactor.

The main purpose of this paper is to propose a novel optimization model with a new machine learning approach in the first section to achieve the best results in financial institutions in the second section. Since the constancy of efficacy derived from parametric and non-parametric is not significant, this paper provides a scientific assessment at the optimization section and proposes a novel combined parametric and non-parametric model which will be a new experiment in literature perception. A scientific assessment of banks based on a combination of the efficiency measurement method of CCR(Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes model) or CRS(Constant Return to Scale) BCC(Banker, Charnes, and Cooper model) or VRS (Variable Return to Scale) in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), as well as Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) for 65 banks during Feb to July 2020, are introduced. For analyzing the performance of the parametric and non-parametric approaches we have considered the linear regression and Unreplicated Linear Functional Relationship (ULFR). At the machine learning section, a novel four-layers data mining filtering pre-processes for selected supervised classification as well as unsupervised clustering algorithms to increase the accuracy and to remove unrelated attributes and data are applied. For the four kinds of preprocessing approaches of unsupervised attributes, supervised attributes, supervised instances, and unsupervised instances, we have chosen discretization, attribute selection, stratified remove folds, and resample filters respectively. Based on the nature of the suggested financial institution's dataset and attributes, the most appropriate preprocessing filter in each layer to achieve the highest performance is suggested. Finally, the superior bank, best performance model, and the most accurate algorithm are introduced. The results indicate that the bank number 56 is the superior bank. Among the proposed techniques, the novel recommended CVS compared with CCR-BCC and SFA models, has a more positive correlation with profit risk, and show a higher coefficient of determination values. Sequential Minimal Optimization(SMO) algorithm receives the highest accuracy in all four suggested filtering layers.

. Manufacturers are increasingly adopting mixed-flow manufacturing models to meet the growing customized, diverse, and dynamic customer demand. In such an environment, material distribution scheduling optimization is vital for smooth operations and is integral to production management. However, manufacturers frequently encounter problems like disordered and delayed material distribution. Traditional scheduling methods suffer from problems like inadequate transparency, delayed decision directives, and suboptimal results, impacting performance. To this end, this study proposes a dynamic material distribution scheduling optimization model and strategy based on digital twin (DT) to address these problems. Firstly, we introduce workstation satisfaction and establish a material distribution path optimization model minimizing total distribution cost while maximizing workstation satisfaction. Subsequently, we present a cloud-edge computing-based decision framework and explain the DT-based material distribution system's components and operation. Furthermore, a dynamic material distribution scheduling optimization mechanism based on DT is designed. By incorporating a savings method and incentive, penalty strategies, improvements are made to the path node selection probabilities and the information pheromone update rules of the traditional ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithm. Finally, a numerical case study, using real data from collaborating enterprises, validates the proposed algorithm and strategy. This research offers valuable insights into logistics management and algorithm design in smart manufacturing environments.

For an enterprise, the most critical aspect of development is resource management, which has a significant impact on all aspects of the enterprise. Therefore, enterprises must pay attention to resource management allocation, which can better promote the sustainable development of the enterprise and obtain optimal benefits. In the production and development of modern enterprises, the acquisition of benefits also involves the allocation of resources in enterprise management. This paper proposed a benefit optimization scheduling algorithm based on a macroeconomic prediction model under auction mechanism and a grid resource scheduling algorithm driven by a benefit function to allocate resources reasonably. This article used macroeconomic forecasting models to fully understand the resource needs of various departments and the resources held by enterprises, and rationally allocate various resources in various departments. This can improve the work efficiency of various departments, thereby reducing the cost of the enterprise, and achieving optimal benefits for the enterprise. The experimental results in this paper showed that the cost of resource management allocation for the benefit optimization scheduling algorithm and the grid resource scheduling algorithm based on the benefit function driven under the auction mechanism was 105.6 yuan and 46.8 yuan respectively when the task volume was 125 under the multi user environment. The time allocated for resource management was 36.6s and 18.9s respectively. It can be seen that the efficiency function driven grid resource scheduling algorithm had a lower cost and time for resource management allocation, so the efficiency function driven grid resource scheduling algorithm can achieve enterprise efficiency optimization.

The beautiful and stable posture is essential for ballet. Especially the pirouette which dancers balance themselves on their one leg is one of the most impressive postures. During the pirouette motion, loads from the rotation and the body weight are concentrated to the one leg. Proper ballet shoes can reduce the muscle burden and improve the stability. Four types of shoes; bare feet, running shoes, pointe shoes, and dance sneakers are analyzed. The motion capture system and SIMM are used for the analysis of muscle burden and stability during pirouette. The major 6 muscles in the leg (beceps femoris long head, beceps femoris short head, soleus, rectus femoris, gastrocnemius medialis, and gastrocnemius lateralis) are analyzed, and the effect of rotating velocity is considered. Dance sneakers are outstanding for improving the stability and lessening the muscle burdens in all conditions for beginners. That comes from the design feature of the divided shoe soles and protecting the ankle of the axis leg. With the results and analysis, the direction for design optimization of ballet shoes is suggested. Consequently, this research is about the verification of sports equipment using computer simulation with the musculoskeletal model from a scientific viewpoint of biomechanics.

The goal of the manuscript is to design a relatively best control structure for the noise suppression of a drone’s camera gimbal action. The gimbal’s movement can be simplified as a rest-to-rest reorientation system that can achieve the boundary result of a dynamic system. Six different control architectures are proposed and evaluated based on their ability to control the trajectory of the dynamic-system position and speed, their running time, and quadratic cost. The robustness of the control architecture to uncertainties in inertia and sensor noise is also analyzed. Monte Carlo figures are used to assess the performance of the six control systems. The conditions for applying different architectures are identified through this analysis. The analysis and experimental tests reveal the most suitable control of the drone’s camera gimbal rotation.

For a decade, the studies of dynamic control for unmanned aerial vehicles took a large interest, where drones as a useful technology in different areas were always suffering from several issues like instability-high energy consumption of batteries - inaccuracy of tracking targets. Different approaches are proposed for dealing with the non-linearity issues which present the most important features of this system. This paper describes our focus on the most common control strategies, known as model predictive control MPC, by developing a model based on the sensors embedded in our Tello quadrotor used for indoor purposes. The original controller of Tello quadrotor is supposed to be a slave, where the designed model predictive controller is created in MATLAB and imported to another embedded system, considered as a master; the objective of this model is to track the reference trajectory, almost keeping the stability of the system and ensure the low energy consumption. In the first part, a profound description of the modelling process of a dynamic model for drones is presented, explaining the design of MPC controller with both linear and non-linear strategies built in MATLAB. In the final part, simulation and results are discussed regarding its behaviour and performance, highlighting the MPC model's important role on drones' energy consumption profile.

This paper addresses the problem of assessing and optimizing acoustic positioning system for underwater target localization with range measurements only. We present a new three-dimensional assessment model to assess the optimal geometric beacon formation whether meet user needs. For the sake of mathematical tractability, it is assumed that the measurements of the range between the target and beacons are corrupted with white Gaussian noise with variance is distance-dependent. Then by adopting dilution of precision (DOP) parameters in the assessment model, the relationship between DOP parameters and positioning accuracy is derived. In addition, the optimal geometric beacon formation that will yield the best performance is achieved by minimizing the values of geometric dilution of precision (GDOP) on condition that the position of target is known and fixed. Next, in order to make sure whether the estimate positioning accuracy over interesting region satisfy the precision needed by the users, geometric positioning accuracy (GPA), horizonal positioning accuracy (HPA) and vertical positioning accuracy (VPA) are utilized to assess the optimal geometric beacon formation. Simulation examples are designed to illustrate the exactness of the conclusion. Unlike other work which only use GDOP to optimize the formation and cannot assess the performance of the specified dimensions, this new three-dimensional assessment model can assess the optimal geometric beacon formation in each dimension for any point in three-dimensional space, which can provide users with guidance advices to optimize performance of every specified dimension.

This paper proposes an optimal trading algorithm based on a novel application of the conventional Control Engineering (CE). We consider a fundamental CE concept, namely, the feedback control and apply it to the Algorithmic Trading (AT). The concrete feedback control strategy is designed in a form of the celebrated Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) model. The highly fluctuating nature of the modern financial markets has led to the adoption of a model-free realisation of the generic PID framework. The control theoretical methodology we propose is combined with the advanced statistics for the historical market data. We obtain a specific log-normal probability distribution function (pdf) associated with the specific quantities associated with the available stock data. The empirical log-normal pdf mentioned above makes it possible the necessary PID gains optimization. For this aim, we apply the data-driven optimization approaches and consider the corresponding Monte Carlo solution procedure. The optimized PID trading algorithm we propose is also studied in the Fourier analysis framework. This equivalent frequency domain representation involves a new concept in the financial engineering, namely, the "stock market energy" concept. For the evaluation, we implement the proposed PID optimal trading algorithm and develop a Python based prototype software. We finally apply the corresponding prototype software to a dataset from the Binance BTC / USDT stock market. The experimental result illustrates the implementability of the proposed optimal PID trading scheme and also shows the effectiveness of the proposed CE methods in the modern AT.

The optimization design of buildings is very important the energy consumption, carbon emissions ,and sustainable development of buildings. The low-temperature granary has low grain storage temperature and high energy consumption indexes. The design scheme of roof insulation for low-temperature granary should be determined in actual building design processes by considering economy, carbon emissions, and outdoor climate, comprehensively. In this paper, the low-temperature granary roof insulation for different ecological grain storage zones in China are optimized by using a new low-carbon optimization design method. The low-carbon optimization design method can response to the economical issue, emission reduction issue, and outdoor climate issue, simultaneously. The application results of the optimization design method in ecological grain storage zones in China indicate that outdoor climate has significant impacts on the economic performance and carbon reduction effect of roof insulation. The considering of carbon emission cost can apparently increase economic efficiency of roof insulation. The optimal economic thickness of expanded polystyrene (EPS) in Urumqi, Harbin, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Guiyang and Haikou cities is 0.025 m, 0.037 m, 0.085 m, 0.097 m, 0.072 m and 0.148 m, respectively. The different outdoor climates of seven ecological grain storage areas in China have important influences on the comprehensive economic performances of low-temperature granary roof insulation. The design of low-temperature granary roof insulation in Haikou city has the best economic performances among the seven ecological grain storage zones in China.

This paper introduces a surrogate model to reduce the huge computational load in the process of simulation-optimization and uncertainty analysis. First, the groundwater numerical simulation model was established, calibrated and verified in the northeast of Hetao Plain. Second, two surrogate models of simulation model were established using support vector regression (SVR) method, one (surrogate model A, SMA) was used to describe the corresponding relationship between the pumping rate and average groundwater table drawdown, and another (surrogate model B, SMB) was used to express the corresponding relationship between the hydrogeological parameter values and average groundwater table drawdown. Third, an optimization model was established to search an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme using the maximum total pumping rate as objective function and the limitative average groundwater table drawdown as constraint condition, the SMA was invoked by the optimization model for obtaining the optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Finally, the SMB was invoked in the process of uncertainty analysis for assessing the reliability of optimal groundwater exploitation scheme. Results show that the relative error and root mean square error between simulation model and the two surrogate models are both less than 5%, which is a high approximation accuracy. The SVR surrogate model developed in this study could not only considerably reduce the computational load, but also maintain high computational accuracy. The optimal total pumping rate is 7947 m3/d and the reliability of optimal scheme is 40.21%. This can thus provide an effective method for identifying an optimal groundwater exploitation scheme and assessing the reliability of scheme quickly and accurately.

With the development of higher voltage power grid, the high and low voltage parallel loops are emerging, which lead to energy losses, even threaten the security and stability of power system. The multi-infeed HVDC configurations widely appearing in AC/DC interconnected power system make this situation even worse. Aimed at energy saving and system security, a decision optimization method for power grid operating condition with high and low voltage parallel loops is proposed in this paper. Firstly, considering hub substation distribution and power grid structure, parallel loop opening schemes are generated with GN algorithm. Then, candidate opening schemes are preliminarily selected from all these generated schemes based on a filtering index. Finally, with the influence on power system security, stability and operation economy in consideration, an evaluation model for candidate opening schemes is founded based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). And a fuzzy evaluation algorithm is used to find the optimal scheme. Simulation results of New England 39-bus system and an actual power system validate the effectiveness and superiority of this proposed method.

The era of globalization of the industrial revolution 4.0 was also marked by rapid economic, social, scientific, and technological developments. Currently, the company was demanded to maximize all its potential to compete with other companies. For this reason, it was hoped that companies could understand the importance of knowledge management-based intellectual capital through outreach, externalization, internalization, and combinations that had implications for improving employee performance and competency. This study was to identify and describe the enhancement of performance and competency-based on the optimization of the intellectual capital model in terms of critical thinking analysis. This study used a qualitative approach with critical thinking analysis through literature study methods. The findings results of this study were to improve performance and competency were the basic measurement models of intellectual capital, new intellectual capital measurement models in empirical studies, intellectual capital measurement models with bottlenecks, and environmental-based intellectual capital models. This study concluded that intellectual capital measurement should be determined as accumulation and interpretation in the proposed model for a company that was an applied subject with a qualitative intellectual capital index system, to provide a good tool for companies to managed intellectual capital.

Wind power as a renewable source of energy, has numerous economic, environmental and social benefits. In order to enhance and control the renewable wind power, it is vital to utilize models that predict wind speed with high accuracy. Due to neglecting of requirement and significance of data preprocessing and disregarding the inadequacy of using a single predicting model, many traditional models have poor performance in wind speed prediction. In the current study, for predicting wind speed at target stations in the north of Iran, the combination of a multi-layer perceptron model (MLP) with the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) used to build new method (MLP-WOA) with a limited set of data (2004-2014). Then, the MLP-WOA model was utilized at each of the ten target stations, with the nine stations for training and tenth station for testing (namely: Astara, Bandar-E-Anzali, Rasht, Manjil, Jirandeh, Talesh, Kiyashahr, Lahijan, Masuleh and Deylaman) to increase the accuracy of the subsequent hybrid model. Capability of the hybrid model in wind speed forecasting at each target station was compared with the MLP model without the WOA optimizer. To determine definite results, numerous statistical performances were utilized. For all ten target stations, the MLP-WOA model had precise outcomes than the standalone MLP model. The hybrid model had acceptable performances with lower amounts of the RMSE, SI and RE parameters and higher values of NSE, WI and KGE parameters. It was concluded that WOA optimization algorithm can improve prediction accuracy of MLP model and may be recommended for accurate wind speed prediction.

Poso regency, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, has a coastal area that has marine tourism potential to be developed. It is expected that marine tourism can bring socio-economic impact to the com-munity. This research was conducted with the objective of assessing the suitability of the area to be developed as a marine and coastal tourism site to provide benefits to the coastal community. Hydrodynamic model will be used in this research as coastal area mapping. As an approach, Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP) is utilized whose parameters consist of depth, coast type, coast width, brightness, current speed, water base materials, observation of dangerous biota and availability of fresh water. Based on the overall mapping area of 98,644 ha, the research results show that the area that can be utilized is 7,979 ha with a very suitable category, while there is an area of 1,045 ha which can still be classified in the appropriate category.

Under the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the carbon emission reduction of the automobile industry has attracted more and more attention in recent years. Electric vehicle has the dual attributes of power load and energy storage unit. With the increase of the number of electric vehicles, reducing carbon emissions through the collaborative interaction between electric vehicle and power network will become an important way to control carbon emissions in the automotive field. In this study, an optimization model of emission reduction benefits based on integrated development of electric vehicle and power grid is proposed, which explores the best technical way of synergy between power grid and electric vehicle, achieves the best carbon reduction effect and provides a model basis for large-scale demonstration application. Numerical simulations based on the real case in Beijing are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Nowadays, model checking is applied as an accurate technique to verify software systems. The main problem of model checking techniques is the state space explosion. This problem occurs due to the exponential memory usage by the model checker. In this situation, using meta-heuristic and evolutionary algorithms to search for a state in which a property is satisfied/violated is a promising solution. Recently, different evolutionary algorithms like GA, PSO, etc. are applied to find deadlock state. Even though useful, most of them are concentrated on finding deadlock. This paper proposes a fuzzy algorithm in order to analyze reachability properties in systems specified through GTS with enormous state space. To do so, we first extend the existing PSO algorithm (for checking deadlocks) to analyze reachability properties. Then, to increase the accuracy, we employ a Fuzzy adaptive PSO algorithm to determine which state and path should be explored in each step to find the corresponding reachable state. These two approaches are implemented in an open-source toolset for designing and model checking GTS called GROOVE. Moreover, the experimental results indicate that the hybrid fuzzy approach improves speed and accuracy in comparison with other techniques based on meta-heuristic algorithms such as GA and the hybrid of PSO-GSA in analyzing reachability properties.

Heat emitters constitute the primary devices used in space heating and cover a fundamental role in the energy efficient use of buildings. In the search for an optimized design, heating devices should be compared with a benchmark emitter with maximum heat emission efficiency. However, such an ideal heater still needs to be defined. In this paper we perform an analysis of heat transfer in a European reference room, considering room side effects of thermal radiation and computing the induced operative temperature both analytically and numerically. By means of functional optimization, we analyse trends such as the variation of operative temperature with radiator panel dimensions, finding optimal configurations. In order to make our definitions as general as possible, we address panel radiators, convectors, underfloor (UFH) and ceiling heater. We obtain analytical formulas for the operative temperature induced by panel radiators and identify the 10-type as our ideal radiator, while the UFH provides the best performance overall. Regarding specifically UFH and ceiling heaters, we find optimal sizes that identify the according ideal emitters. The analytical method and quantitative results reported in this paper can be generalized and adopted in most studies concerning the efficiency of different heat emitter types in building enclosures.

Fabry-Pérto (FP) cavity is the essential component of ultra-stable laser (USL) for gravitational wave detection, which couples multi-physic (Optical/Thermal/Mechanics) fields and requires ultra-high precision. To satisfy the requirements of precise and efficient design, a multi-physic coupling optimization method for fixing cubic FP cavity based on data learning is proposed. A multi-physic model for the cubic FP cavity is established and the performance is obtained by finite element analysis. The key performance indices (V, wF, wF) and key design variables (d, l, F) are determined considering the features of the FP cavity. The 49 sets of data by orthogonal experiment are acquired for the establishment and comparison of different data learning models (NN, RSF, KRG). The result turns out that the neural network has the best performance. Based on NSGA-II, the Pareto optimal front is obtained and the optimal combination of design variables is finally determined as {5,32,250}. The performance after optimization has proven to be a great improvement, of which the displacement under the fixing force and vibration test are decreased by more than 60%. The optimization strategy can not only help the design of the FP cavity but also enlighten other optimization fields.

The integration of transportation systems with land use through the Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) model can effectively promote sustainable development in cities. By increasing the intensive use of land within the supply capacity of urban public transportation, this model can comprehensively improve the efficiency of urban transportation and land use, while also addressing problems such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution. To implement this model, a "Node-Place-Function" (NPF) framework is proposed based on the coordination degree between rail transit and land use in Qingdao. A comprehensive evaluation system is constructed to quantitatively assess the TOD level and comprehensive development level of land use around rail transit stations from three dimensions. By applying the NSGA-II genetic algorithm, a land use allocation optimization model is developed to maximize rail transit station accessibility, land economic benefits, and environmental comfort. The research results guide other cities in China to implement TOD in land use planning and promote coordinated development between urban rail transit and land use.

Poor medication adherence among older adults is a widespread problem worldwide. As the population ages, the design of smartphone medication management apps is critical to improving medication adherence among older adults. Taking the design of an elderly medication reminder APP as an example, this study proposes a sustainable design research method that integrates the KANO model, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Quality Function Deployment (QFD), and PUGH decision matrix. The method collects user demands through in-depth interviews, and applies the KANO model to classify these demands. The hierarchical structure of user needs is established by using AHP, and the priority is sorted according to the weight and importance determined by the judgment matrix. QFD is used to translate user needs into design requirements, and the house of quality matrix identifies key design requirements. Finally, design alternatives are evaluated using Pugh's concept selection method. The results of this study demonstrate that the integration of KANO-AHP-QFD-PUGH can be effective as a sustainable optimal design approach for the user experience of a medication reminder application for the elderly. This integrated method not only facilitates innovative optimization and sustainability of application design methods but also provides valuable theoretical and practical insights for future drug-assisted design for elderly users.

Optimizing the NACA0015 airfoil which is widely applied in small-scale vertical axis wind turbine to make it has a better aerodynamic performance. In the optimization process, using CST parameterization method to perturb the airfoil geometry, the thickness and camber of the airfoil are selected as the constraint, and the value of the maximum tangential force coefficient is chosen as the objective function, the genetic algorithm based on non-dominated sorting (NSGA-II)is selected as an optimization method, calculates the aerodynamic performance of the airfoil by applying the approach of combining XFOIL program and Viterna-Corrigan post-stall mode ,and establishes the optimizing process by the optimization software modefrontier for NACA0015 airfoil’s muti-point optimization, validate the airfoil’s performance with CFD finally. The result illustrates that, by comparing with the NACA0015 airfoil, the optimized airfoil’s lift to drag ratio is improved over a wide range of attack angles, the stall performance is more gentle. The maximum lift coefficient, the maximum lift-drag ratio and the maximum tangential force coefficient are increased by 7.5%,9 and 8.87%, respectively. The optimized airfoil has a wide variable condition performance, more suitable for the operating conditions of a vertical axis wind turbine. Finally, predict the rotor efficiency with optimized airfoil and NACA0015 airfoil for different tip speed ratios and different solidities with multiple streamtube model, the result shows the rotor with optimized airfoil has a higher efficiency.

This article develops a duality principle and a related convex dual formulation suitable for a large class of models in physics and engineering. The results are based on standard tools of functional analysis, calculus of variations and duality theory. In particular, we develop applications to a model in non-linear elasticity.

When using meta-heuristic optimization approaches for optimization, a large number of samples are required. In particular, when generating subgeneration, the utilization of existing samples is low and the number of individuals is high. Therefore, surrogate-based optimization has been developed, which greatly reduces the number of individuals in the subgeneration and the cost of optimization. In complex air supply scenarios, single-objective optimization results may not be comprehensive; therefore, this paper developed a double-objective air supply optimization method based on the Kriging surrogate model and Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms-II. And proposed the infill criteria based on clustering to advance the Pareto Frontier. The method was validated by an inverse prediction case, and in particular, the problems when based on 3D steady-state simulations were analyzed. The results showed that the method can quickly achieve an approximate prediction of the boundary conditions (when prediction were made based on experimental data, the number of simulations was 82 and the average error was 6.8%). Finally, the method was used to optimize the air supply parameters of a dual-aisle, single-row cabin. The Pareto set suggested that an airflow organization with dual circulation may be optimal.

Individual differences in the responsiveness of the brain to transcranial electrical stimulation (tES) is increasingly demonstrated in large variability in the tES effects. Anatomically detailed computational brain models have been developed to address this variability; however, static brain models are not ‘realistic’ in accounting for the dynamic state of the brain. Therefore, human-in-the-loop optimization is proposed in this perspective article based on an extensive systems analysis of the tES neurovascular effects. First, modal analysis was conducted using a physiologically detailed neurovascular model that found stable modes in the 0 Hz to 0.05 Hz range for the pathway for vessel response through the smooth muscle cells, measured with functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). tES effects in the 0 Hz to 0.05 Hz range can also be measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)-tDCS data with a maximum TR=10sec. Therefore, we investigated an open-source fMRI-tDCS dataset that used a TR=3.36sec. We found that both the anodal tDCS condition and sham tDCS condition had similar Finite Impulse Response at the region of interest underlying the anode and a remote location, which indicated a global hemodynamic effect of sham tDCS beyond the intended transient sensations. Here, transient sensations can have arousal effects on the hemodynamics so we conducted a healthy case series for black box modeling of fNIRS-pupillometry of short-duration tDCS effects. The block exogeneity test rejected the claim that tDCS is not a 1-step Granger-cause of the fNIRS total hemoglobin changes (HbT) and pupil dilation changes (p<0.05). Also, grey-box modeling using fNIRS of the tDCS effects in chronic stroke showed HbT response to be significantly different (paired-sample t-test, p<0.05) between the ipsilesional and the contralesional hemisphere for primary motor cortex tDCS and cerebellar tDCS which was subserved by the smooth muscle cells. Here, our perspective is that various physiological pathways subserving tES effects can lead to state-trait variability that can be challenging for clinical translation. Therefore, we conducted a case study on human-in-the-loop optimization using our reduced dimension model and a stochastic, derivative-free Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy. Future studies need to investigate human-in-the-loop optimization of tES for reducing inter-subject and intra-subject variability in tES effects.

This paper deals with the problem of determining the optimal capacity of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants, especially in the context of hybrid solar power plants. This work presents an innovative analytical approach to optimize the capacity of concentrated solar plants. The proposed method is based on the use of additional non-dimensional parameters, in particular the design factor and the solar multiple factor. The paper presents a mathematical optimization model that focuses on the capacity of concentrated solar power plants where thermal storage plays a key role in the energy source. The analytical approach provides a more complete understanding of the design process for hybrid power plants. In addition, the use of additional factors and the combination of the proposed method with existing numerical methods allows for a more refined optimization, which allows for a more accurate selection of the capacity for specific geographical conditions. Importantly, the proposed method significantly increases the speed of computation compared to traditional numerical methods. Finally, the authors present the results of the analysis of the proposed system of equations for calculating the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for hybrid solar power plants. The nonlinearity of the LCOE on the main calculation parameters is shown.

Hydro generator sets serve as the peak and frequency regulation of the power system,and play a very important role in maintaining system stability and improving power quality.Based on the internal characteristics model of a specific type of hydro generator,this paper constructs a hydroelectric coupling model for hydropower units,studies the influence of the regulation system of hydropower units on low-frequency oscillations under different load conditions,and adopts variable speed reaching law and fuzzy sliding mode control strategy to improve the regulation quality of the system and ensure the stable operation of the units.Results of simulation and water turbine set under different load conditions show that varible speed reaching law can effectively improve the power-angle oscillation behavior of the hydropower set and suppress the occurrence of low-frequency oscillations of the system when the system is subject to power disturbance,which provide a new theoretical basis and solution for the vibration analysis and control optimization of hydraulic turbine units.

Predicting ground reaction forces (GRFs) and ground reaction moments (GRMs) through a biomechanical model-based approach offers advantages for biomechanical analysis, particularly in situations where the application of a statistical model is limited by insufficient training data. However, the current prediction method is unsuitable for clinical applications due to its long computational time. The present study developed a new optical motion capture (OMC)-based method to predict GRFs, GRMs, and joint torques. The proposed approach performed the estimation process by distributing external forces, as determined by the equation of motion, between the left and right feet based on foot deformations, thereby predicting the GRFs and GRMs without relying on machine learning or optimization techniques. We investigated the prediction accuracy during walking by comparing a conventional analysis using a force plate with the OMC results. The comparison revealed excellent or strong correlations between the prediction and measurement for all GRFs, GRMs, and lower limb joint torques. The proposed method, which provides practical estimation with low computational cost, facilitates efficient biomechanical analysis and rapid feedback of analysis results, thereby increasing its applicability for kinetics estimation in clinical settings.

Adequate knowledge about the development and operation of the components of water systems is of high importance in order to optimize them. For this reason, forecasting of future events becomes greatly significant due to making the appropriate decision. Moreover, operational river management severely depends on accurate and reliable flow forecasts. In this regard, current study inspects the accuracy of support vector regression (SVR), and SVR regulated with fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOASVR) and M5 model tree (M5), in river flow forecasting. Monthly data of river flow in two stations of the Lake Urmia Basin (Vaniar and Babarud stations on the Aji Chay and the Barandouz Rivers) were utilized in the current research. Additionally, the influence of periodicity (π) on the forecasting enactment was examined. To assess the performance of mentioned models, different statistical meters were implemented, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Results showed that the FOASVR with RMSE (4.36 and 6.33 m3/s), MAE (2.40 and 3.71 m3/s) and R (0.82 and 0.81) values had the best performances in forecasting river flows in Babarud and Vaniar stations, respectively. Also, regarding BIC parameters, Q_t-1 and π were selected as parsimonious inputs for predicting river flow one month ahead. Overall findings indicated that, although both FOASVR and M5 predicted the river flows in suitable accordance with observed river flows, the performance of FOASVR was moderately better than the M5 and periodicity noticeably increased the performances of the models; consequently, FOASVR can be suggested as the accurate method for forecasting river flows.

Adequate knowledge about the development and operation of the components of water systems is of high importance in order to optimize them. For this reason, forecasting of future events becomes greatly significant due to making the appropriate decision. Moreover, operational river management severely depends on accurate and reliable flow forecasts. In this regard, current study inspects the accuracy of support vector regression (SVR), and SVR regulated with fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOASVR) and M5 model tree (M5), in river flow forecasting. Monthly data of river flow in two stations of the Lake Urmia Basin (Vaniar and Babarud stations on the Aji Chay and the Barandouz Rivers) were utilized in the current research. Additionally, the influence of periodicity (π) on the forecasting enactment was examined. To assess the performance of mentioned models, different statistical meters were implemented, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Results showed that the FOASVR with RMSE (4.36 and 6.33 m3/s), MAE (2.40 and 3.71 m3/s) and R (0.82 and 0.81) values had the best performances in forecasting river flows in Babarud and Vaniar stations, respectively. Also, regarding BIC parameters, Qt-1 and π were selected as parsimonious inputs for predicting river flow one month ahead. Overall findings indicated that, although both FOASVR and M5 predicted the river flows in suitable accordance with observed river flows, the performance of FOASVR was moderately better than the M5 and periodicity noticeably increased the performances of the models; consequently, FOASVR can be suggested as the accurate method for forecasting river flows.

Agricultural greenhouse is largely answered in the agricultural sphere, despite the shortcomings it has, including overheating during the day and night cooling which sometimes results in the thermal inversion mainly due to its low inertia. The glasshouse dressed chapel is relatively more efficient than the conventional tunnel greenhouse. Its proliferation on the ground is more or less timid because of its relatively high cost[14-22]. Agricultural greenhouse aims to create a favorable microclimate to the requirements of growth and development of culture, from the surrounding weather conditions, produce according to the cropping calendars fruits, vegetables and flower species out of season and widely available along the year. It is defined by its structural and functional architecture, the quality thermal, mechanical and optical of its wall, with its sealing level and the technical and technological accompanying[12-13]. The greenhouse is a very confined environment, where multiple components are exchanged between key stakeholders and them factors are light, temperature and relative humidity[8]. This state of thermal evolution is the level sealing of the cover of its physical characteristics to be transparent to solar, absorbent and reflective of infrared radiation emitted by the enclosure where the solar radiation trapping effect otherwise called "greenhouse effect" and its technical and technological means of air that accompany. The socio-economic analysis of populations in the world leaves appear especially the last two decades of rapid and profound transformations These changes are accompanied by changes in eating habits, mainly characterized by rising consumption spread along the year[14]. To effectively meet this demand, greenhouse-systems have evolved, particularly towards greater control of production conditions (climate, irrigation, ventilation techniques, CO2 supply, etc ...). Technological progress has allowed the development of greenhouses so that they become increasingly sophisticated and of an industrial nature (heating, air conditioning, control, computer, regulation, etc ...). New climate driving techniques have emerged, including the use of control devices from the classic to the use of artificial intelligence[10-11] such as neural networks and / or fuzzy logic, etc... As a result, the greenhouse growers prefer these new technologies while optimizing the investment in the field to effectively meet the supply and demand of these fresh products cheaply and widely available throughout the year.

Magnetorheological elastomers (MREs) are a type of smart material that can change their mechanical properties in response to external magnetic fields. These unique properties make them ideal for various applications, including vibration control, noise reduction, and shock absorption. This paper presents an approach for modeling the impact behavior of MREs. The proposed model uses a combination of exponential functions arranged in a multi-layer Preisach model to capture the nonlinear behavior of MREs under impact loads. The model is trained using particle swarm optimization (PSO) and validated using experimental data from drop impact tests conducted on MRE samples under various magnetic field strengths. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can accurately predict the impact behavior of MREs, making it a useful tool for designing MRE-based devices that require precise control of their impact response. The model's response closely matches the experimental data, with a maximum prediction error of 10% or less. Furthermore, the interpolated model's response shows good agreement with the experimental data, with a maximum percentage error of less than 8.5%.

This study conducted experiments to optimize the electro-dewatering of sludge using a dynamic model calculation method and the Wild Horse optimizer. Specifically, we explored two factors that might influence dewatering: the composition of the electrode materials and the strength of the electrical field. Compared to other electrodes commonly used in electro-dewatering—such as RuO2/Ir2O3-Ti, graphite, Ir2O3/Ta2O5-Ti, and Ti—the Electro-kinetic Geosynthetics (EKG) electrode exhibited superior performance. This was determined by considering both energy consumption and model establishment. Our findings also identified electric-field strength as a crucial factor determining the final moisture content. As the electrical intensity increased, the dewatering effect improved, aligning with our model calculations. However, we observed a steep increase in energy consumption per kilogram of filtrate when the electric-field strength exceeded a certain threshold. To optimize the energy consumption of the dehydration process, we constructed a multi-factor model. The simulation results from this model confirmed that electric-field intensity is the primary factor affecting dehydration. It was established that 10 V/cm is a critical threshold for the process.

Given several nonnegative matrices with a single pattern of allocation among their zero/nonzero elements, the average matrix should have the same pattern, too. This is the first tenet of the pattern-multiplicative average (PMA) concept, while the second one suggests the multiplicative (or geometric) nature of averaging. The original concept of PMA was motivated by the practice of matrix population models as a tool to assess the population viability from long-term monitoring data. The task has reduced to searching for an approximate solution to an overdetermined system of polynomial equations for unknown elements of the average matrix (G), hence to a nonlinear constrained minimization problem for the matrix norm. Former practical solutions faced certain technical problems, which required sophisticated algorithms but returned acceptable estimates. Fresh idea to use the eigenvalue approximation ensues also from the basic equation of averaging, which determines the exact value of λ1(G), the dominant eigenvalue of matrix G, too, and the corre-sponding eigenvector. These are bound by the well-known linear equations, which reduce the task to a standard problem of linear programing (LP). The LP approach is realized for 13 fixed-pattern matrices gained in a case study of Androsace albana, an alpine short-lived perennial, monitored on permanent plots during 14 years. A standard software routine reveals the unique exact solution, rather than an approximate one, to the PMA problem, which turns the LP approach into ‘’the best of versatile optimization tools”. The exact solution turns out to be peculiar in reaching zero bounds for certain nonnegative entries of G, which deserves a modified problem formulation separating the lower bounds from zero.

We present a general theory of estimation of analysis error covariances based on cross-validation as well as a geometric interpretation of the method. In particular we use the variance of passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and show that the true analysis error variance can be estimated, without relying on the optimality assumption. This approach is used to obtain near optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the air quality analysis error using several different methods at active and passive observation sites. We compare the estimates according to the method of Hollingsworth-Lönnberg, Desroziers et al., a new diagnostic we developed, and the perceived analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that, as long as the analysis is near optimal, all estimates agree within a certain error margin.

This study investigates the application of regression neural networks, in particular the fitrnet model, in predicting the hardness of steels. The experiments involve extensive tuning of hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization and employ 5-fold and 10-fold cross-validation schemes. The trained models are rigorously evaluated, and their performances are compared using various metrics such as mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The results provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of the models and their ability to generalize to unseen data. In particular, Model 4208 (8-85-141-1) emerges as the top performer with an impressive RMSE of 1.0790 and an R² of 0.9900. The research paper contains an illustrative example that demonstrates the practical application of the developed model in determining the hardenability band for a specific steel grade and shows the effectiveness of the model in predicting and optimizing heat treatment results.

The production of butanol, acetone and ethanol by Clostridium acetobutylicum is a biphasic fer-mentation process. In the first phase the carbohydrate substrate is metabolized to acetic and bu-tyric acid, in the following second phase the product spectrum is shifted towards the economi-cally interesting solvents. Here we present a cascade of six continuous stirred tank reactors (CCSTR), which allows performing the time dependent metabolic phases of an ace-tone-butanol-ethanol (ABE) batch fermentation in a spatial domain. Experimental data of steady states under four operating conditions - with variations of the pH in the first bioreactor between 4.3 and 5.6 as well as the total dilution rate between 0.042 1/h and 0.092 1/h - were used to optimize and validate a corresponding mathematical model. Beyond a residence time distribution representation and substrate, biomass and product kinetics this model also includes the differen-tiation of cells between the metabolic states. Model simulations predict a final butanol product concentration of 8.2 g/L and a butanol productivity of 0.75 g/(L h) in the CCSTR operated at a pH in bioreactor 1 of 4.3 and D = 0.092 1/h, while 31 % of the cells are differentiated to the solventogenic state. Aiming at an enrichment of solvent-producing cells, a feedback loop was introduced into the cascade - sending cells from a later state of the process (bioreactor 4) back to an early stage of the process (bioreactor 2). In agreement with the experimental observations, the model accurately predicted an increase of butanol formation rate in bioreactor stages 2 and 3, resulting in an overall butanol productivity of 0.76 g/(L h) for the feedback loop cascade. The here presented CCSTR and the validated model will serve to investigate further ABE fermentation strategies for a controlled metabolic switch.

Advancements in Parametric Design, Generative Design, and automation in Building Information Modelling (BIM) have opened new opportunities for architects and engineers working on complex buildings, such as offices. These developments allow designers to enhance their designs, increase project efficiency, improve performance, and reduce project time and costs. To address conflicting objectives that arise during the design process, genetic algorithms with multi-objective optimization (MOO) have been employed in architectural design. The GENIUS project aims to optimize building shape, apertures, and shading systems in the concept and design stages, with a focus on energy and daylight performance. The project integrates BIM and visual programming tools with Artificial Intelligence techniques like Genetic Algorithms and RBFOpt model-based optimization. Optimization algorithms are used to identify the best solutions that meet all design objectives, helping architects optimize their designs and achieve desired outcomes. The workflow was tested on a case study of a large office building, with MOO focused on maximizing daylight performance using Spatial Daylight Autonomy metric and minimizing energy consumption using Energy Use Intensity metric. The project provides architects with a method to improve their designs using Algorithm Aided Design tools, which help identify the best solutions for complex design problems.

The main challenges in oil platforms are how to define optimal setpoints and decision-making for controlling variables due to many existing dynamical production uncertainties while conceding safe operation and minimizing discharge to sea and atmosphere without killing plantwide inventory. A novel scheduling model to optimize the whole essential units of an oil platform production gathering topside and subsea variables is disclosed. A proper topside and subsea scheduling model enables and creates harmony between optimal production, supply chain, costs, and market dynamics, satisfying demands, environmental and operations constraints leading to stability. The interest of the present research lies in determining the optimal topside and subsea operational settings and decision-making, establishing maximum E&P performance and production control setpoints while predicting and manipulating reservoir lifespan and its revitalization. This objective is attained through a novel multiperiod large-scale model for the planning and operational production scheduling and model predictive control (MPC) in oil platforms complying with sustainability, profitability, platform design capacities, and offloading of oil and gas to supply chains or to pipeline exportation. The present model details heat and mass transfer, PVT, flow profiles along a planning horizon and can be used to any oil platform since comprises all the essential unit operations for oil, gas, CO₂, H₂S and water. The model maximizes the total oil production over any planning horizon. The model is versatile, and decision-making can be either linear or nonlinear but rather a MILP or LP as best choice on optimizing large-scale systems. If the model is applied with auto rescheduling on site within variable hours or minutes, it becomes a real-time optimization schedule approach. Due to its high-velocity performance and robustness, a novel multi-objective function strategy, acting as an LP generic plantwide MPC with industrial scope to maximize production while controlling the process is presented, and as an example is here used to control slug flow to avoid equipment trips and inventory instability, at the same time production is maximized. The output from the decision-making was compared to actual plant data, and the results proved compliance to the design capacity with process safety and sustainability. Comparing to official Brazil's government data for oil, the case study showed superiority to the same size platforms, like FPSOs P-75 and MV32, e.g., more than 101.5% more capacity to produce oil in beginning of campaign after first oil, and 10.5% during campaign. The present work indicates that: 1) the production of millions of barrels is being delayed or left aside; 2) not scheduling production harms the environment and diminish process safety; 3) not scheduling production can create stochastic supply chain deliveries instead of organizing it by deterministic offloading days; 4) scheduling is essential to manipulate, revitalize and monitor reservoir's pressure and content under uncertainty; 5) the oil platform can be automatic optimized by a plantwide MPC reducing human activity/dependency; 6) scheduling gives more transparency to stakeholders and contractors by forecasting business data and capability, and can design, develop or enable new businesses.

Remaining service life (RSL) of pavement, as a sign of future pavement performance, has always received growing attention from pavement engineers. The RSL describes the time from the moment of pavement inspection until such a time when a major repair or reconstruction is required. The conventional approach to determining RSL involves using non-destructive tests. These tests, in addition to being costly, interfere with traffic flow and compromise users' safety. In this paper, surface distresses of pavement have been used to estimate the pavement’s RSL in order to eliminate the aforementioned problems and challenges. To implement the proposed theory, 105 flexible pavement segments were taken from Shahrood-Damghan Highway (Highway 44) in Iran. For each pavement segment, the type, severity, and extent of surface damage and pavement condition index (PCI) were determined. The pavement RSL was then estimated using non-destructive tests include Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR). After completing the dataset, the modeling was conducted to predict RSL using three techniques include Support Vector Regression (SVR), Support Vector Regression Optimized by Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm (SVR-FOA), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP). All three techniques estimated the RSL of the pavement by selecting the PCI as input. The Correlation Coefficient (CC), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Scattered Index (SI), and Willmott’s Index of agreement (WI) criteria were used to examine the performance of the three techniques adopted in this study. In the end, it was found that GEP with values of 0.874, 0.598, 0.601, and 0.807 for CC, SI, NSE, and WI criteria, respectively, had the highest accuracy in predicting the RSL of pavement.

The Oxford English Dictionary includes 17 definitions for the word “model” as a noun and other 11 as a verb. Therefore, context is necessary to understand the meaning of the word model. For in-stance, “model railways” refer to replicas of railways and trains at a smaller scale and a “model student” refers to an exemplar individual. In some cases, a specific context, like cancer research, may not be sufficient to provide one specific meaning of a model. Even if the context is narrowed, specifically to the research related to the tumour microenvironment, a “model” can be understood in a wide variety of ways, from an animal model, to a mathematical expression. This paper presents a review of the different “models” of the tumour microenvironment grouped by the different def-initions of the word into four categories: model organisms, in vitro models, mathematical models, and computational models. Then, the frequency of different meanings of the word “model” related to the tumour microenvironment is measured from the number of entries in the MEDLINE database of the United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health. The frequency of the main components of the microenvironment and the organ-related cancers modelled are also assessed quantitatively with specific keywords. Whilst animal models, in particular xenografts and mouse models are the most common used “models”, the number of entries have been slowly de-creasing. Mathematical models, prognostic and risk models follow in frequency and these have been growing in use.

Online and offline shopping trip have different impacts on various aspects of urban life, such as e-commerce, transportation systems, and sustainability. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the factors that influence their choices. We use a hybrid machine learning model that combines a gray wolf optimization algorithm and a deep convolutional neural network to estimate shopping trip based on a survey of 1,000 active e-commerce users who made successful orders in both online and offline services in the last 20 days of 2021 in areas 2 and 5 of Tehran. The gray wolf optimization algorithm performs feature selection and hyperparameter tuning for the deep convolutional neural network, which is a powerful deep learning model for image recognition and classification. The results show that our model achieves an accuracy of 97.81% with an MSE of 0.325 by selecting seven out of ten features. The most important features are delivery cost, delivery time, product price, car ownership. In addition, comparing the performance of the proposed method with other methods showed that the proposed algorithm with an accuracy of 97.81%, the accuracies of the single deep learning model, MLP neural network, decision tree, and KNN models were 95.63%, 90.0%, 86.49%, and 80.16%, respectively.

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

In Model-Driven Development (MDD), the models, their generation, and imposing changes on them (model transformation) are used for the development of software. Models provide a framework to start from the imagination and abstraction to create and accomplish the final system. Models create a slow and steady transition from whatness to howness, i.e. from the natural path of the generation of software. For supporting this path, the Logic and Functionality of software must be changeable during its evolution. Here we provide a brief introduction to the concept of Model Driven Development.

Assuming a Winterberg model for space where the vacuum consists of a very stiff two component superfluid made up of positive and negative mass planckions, theory is the hypothesis, that Planck charge, , was created at the same time as Planck mass. Moreover, the repulsive force that like-mass planckions experience is, in reality, due to the electrostatic force of repulsion between like charges. These forces also give rise to what appears to be a gravitational force of attraction between two like planckions, but this is an illusion. In reality, gravity is electrostatic in origin if our model is correct. We determine the spring constant associated with planckion masses, and find that, , where equals Apery's constant, , and, , is the relaxed, i.e., , number density of the positive and negative mass planckions. In the present epoch, we estimate that, equals, , and the relaxed distance of separation between nearest neighbor positive, or negative, planckion pairs is, These values were determined using box quantization for the positive and negative mass planckions, and considering transitions between energy states, much like as in the hydrogen atom. For the cosmos as a whole, given a net smeared macroscopic gravitational field of, , due to all the ordinary, and bound, matter contained within the observable universe, an average displacement from equilibrium for the planckion masses is a mere , within the vacuum made up of these particles. On the surface of the earth, where, , the displacement amounts to, . All of these displacements are due to increased gravitational pressure within the vacuum, which in turn are caused by applied gravitational fields. The gravitational potential is also derived and directly related to gravitational pressure.

Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.

Current numerical methods for simulating biophysical processes in aquatic environments are typically constructed in a grid-based Eulerian framework or as an individual-based model in a particle-based Lagrangian framework. Often, the biogeochemical processes and physical (hydrodynamic) processes occur at different time and space scales, and changes in biological processes do not affect the hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, it is possible to develop an alternative strategy to grid-based approaches for linking hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models that can significantly improve computational efficiency for this type of linked biophysical model. In this work, we utilize a new technique which links hydrodynamic effects and biological processes through a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) in a Lagrangian/Eulerian framework. The model is tested in idealized cases and its utility is demonstrated in a practical application to Sandusky Bay. Results show the integration of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches allows for a natural coupling of mass transport (represented by particle movements and random walk) and biological processes in water columns which is described by a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) biological model. This method is far more efficient than traditional tracer based Eulerian biophysical models for 3-D simulation, particularly for a large domain and/or ensemble simulations.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Configuration techniques have been used in several fields, such as the design of business process models. Sometimes these models depend on the data dependencies, being easier to describe "what" has to be done instead of "how". Configuration models enable to use a declarative representation of business processes, deciding the most appropriate work-flow in each case. Unfortunately, data dependencies among the activities and how they can affect the correct execution of the process, has been overlooked in the declarative specifications and configurable systems found in the literature. In order to find the best process configuration for optimizing the execution time of processes according to data dependencies, we propose the use of Constraint Programming paradigm with the aim of obtaining an adaptable imperative model in function of the data dependencies of the activities described declarative.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

In MBSE there is yet no converged terminology. The term ’system model’ is used in different contexts in literature. In this study we elaborated the definitions and usages of the term ’system model’, to find a common definition. 104 publications have been analyzed in depth for their usage and definition as well as their meta-data e.g., the publication year and publication background to find some common patterns. While the term is gaining more interest in recent years it is used in a broad range of contexts for both analytical and synthetic use cases. Based on this three categories of system models have been defined and integrated into a more precise definition.

Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK. Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19. Results: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone. Conclusions: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.

This paper describes a memory model with 2 levels of information. The lower-level stores source data, is Markov-like and unweighted. Then an upper-level ontology is created from a further 3 phases of aggregating source information, by transposing from an ensemble to a hierarchy at each level. The ontology is useful for search processes and the aggregating process transposes the information from horizontal set-based sequences to more vertical typed-based clusters. The base memory is essentially neutral, where any weighted constraints or preferences should be sent by the calling module. This therefore allows different weight sets to be imposed on the same linking structure. The success of the ontology typing is open to interpretation, but the author would suggest that when clustering text, the result was types based more on use and context, for example, 'linking' with 'structure' or 'provide' with 'web,' for a document describing distributed service-based networks. This allows the system to economise over symbol use, where links to related symbols will be clustered together. The author then conjectures that a third level would be more neural in nature and would include functions or operations to be performed on the data, along with related memory information.

Brain models present a viewpoint on the fundamental structural components of the brain and their mutual organization, generally relative to a particular concept of the brain axis. A model may be based on adult brain structure or on developmental morphogenetic aspects. Brain models usually have functional implications, depending on which functional properties derive from the postulated organization. This essay examines the present scenario about brain models, emphasizing the contrast between columnar or other longitudinal models and transverse subdivisional neuromeric models. In each case, the main functional implications and apparent problems are explored and commented. Particular attention is given to the modern molecularly based ‘prosomeric model’, which postulates a set of 20 transverse prosomeres as the developmental units that serve to construct all the cerebral parts and the particular typology of many different neuronal populations within the forebrain and the hindbrain, plus a number of additional spinal cord units. These metameric developmental units (serially repeated, but with unique molecular profiles) confer to this model remarkable functional properties based mainly on its multiplicity and modularity. Many important brain functions can be decomposed into subfunctions attended to by combined sets of neuronal elements derived from different neuromeres. Each neuromere may participate in multiple functions. Most aspects related to creation of precise order in neural connections (axonal navigation and synaptogenesis) and function is due to the influence of neuromeric anteroposterior and dorsoventral positional information. Research on neuromeric functionality aspects is increasing significantly in recent times.

Small island developing states (SIDS) traditionally face a set of challenges like the narrow economic structure, environmental issues, and dependence on a few ranges of economic activities forcing them to open the economy to the exterior. Therefore, their development model, like in Cape Verde depends on migration, remittances, dependence on aid, tourism, and state employment. The current research offers an insight about the nature of Cape Verde’s economy as a SIDS and the degree to which its economy depends on tourism and government services, both of which are supported through aid programs. Understanding Cape Verde’s development model is important to clarify the challenges the country faces, and its development needs to gather a long-term resilience and to understand if it is changing from a MIRAB (Migrations, Remittances, Aid and Bureaucracy) model into another one.

In China, the majority of mountainous regions are characterized by complex topography and a delicate, sensitive geological environment. Coupled with a generally underdeveloped infrastruc-ture and numerous unreasonable human engineering activities, these regions are often highly susceptible to geological disasters. Geological hazards can cause significant damage to human lives and property, impeding the development of mountainous areas. Consequently, researching the assessment of geological hazard vulnerability is crucial for disaster prevention, emergency management, and economic development in these regions. This study focuses on Xuanwei City and selects eight factors for evaluation, including elevation, gradient, slope aspect, normalized vegetation index, stratigraphic lithology, distance from faults, distance from rivers, and distance from roads. These factors are chosen based on a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and tem-poral distribution of geological hazards and disaster incubation conditions. Two paired models, the deterministic coefficient model + logistic regression model (CF+LR) and the information quan-tity model + logistic regression model (I+LR), were employed to quantitatively assess the study ar-ea. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using ROC curves and AUC values. The results indicate that: (1) The AUC values for the CF+LR and I+LR coupled models are 0.799 and 0.772, respectively, demonstrating that both models can objectively and reliably assess the vulnerability to geological hazards in the study area; (2) Based on the CF+LR model calculations, the geological hazard susceptibility of Xuanwei City can be categorized into four zones: extremely high suscepti-bility (6.09%), high susceptibility (31.08%), medium susceptibility (32.26%), and low susceptibility (30.57%); (3) The CF+LR model more accurately represents the evaluation results and offers a strong reference value.

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.

As the problem of air pollution becomes more urgent, the precise determination of the characteristics of air pollution and the associated mechanisms of transport of pollutants becomes an increasingly urgent task. The simulation results of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) [18] were used as initial data sets. The area of the Crimean Peninsula (within coordinates 44.50 latitude, 33.50 longitude) in 23 - 26 January, 2019 was chosen for the study. That time concentrations of pollutants (aerosol particles with a diameter of 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 micrometers (PM10)) steadily increased and reached the maximum value. Four kinds of meteorological data sets were used in the work. The first and second data sets were the global NCEP/NCAR and (ERA-5) re-analyses. The third and fourth meteorological data sets were obtained using the Weather tracking and Forecasting model (WRF) as domains on high-resolution grids: 9 km and 2 km. The analysis of meteorological data sets was carried out to analyze the nature of the air masses movement in the studied region. Using the HYSPLIT model simulation was carried out to determine area of the sources of negative impact. The emissions transfer from the supposed sources of negative impact on the Crimea region is analyzed. The sensitivity of simulation the inverse and direct trajectories of air masses transfer was studied based a set of simulation results. On the basis of HYSPLIT model the simulation was carried out separately using meteorological data sets having different spatial and temporal resolutions. In general, the simulation results allowed us to conclude that the HYSPLIT model in combination with high-resolution meteorological input data of the WRF model are good to identify the sources of possible negative effects on atmospheric air located at long distances from the study site.

During the past two decades of e-commerce growth, the concept of a business model has become increasingly popular. More recently, the research on this realm has grown rapidly, with diverse research activity covering a wide range of application areas. Considering the sustainable development goals, the innovative business models have brought a competitive advantage to improve the sustainability performance of organizations. The concept of the sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural, or other contexts, in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction forms an innovative part of a business strategy. Different industries and businesses have utilized sustainable business models’ concept to satisfy their economic, environmental, and social goals simultaneously. However, the success, popularity, and progress of sustainable business models in different application domains are not clear. To explore this issue, this research provides a comprehensive review of sustainable business models literature in various application areas. Notable sustainable business models are identified and further classified in fourteen unique categories, and in every category, the progress -either failure or success- has been reviewed, and the research gaps are discussed. Taxonomy of the applications includes innovation, management and marketing, entrepreneurship, energy, fashion, healthcare, agri-food, supply chain management, circular economy, developing countries, engineering, construction and real estate, mobility and transportation, and hospitality. The key contribution of this study is that it provides an insight into the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas and future research directions. This paper concludes that popularity and the success rate of sustainable business models in all application domains have been increased along with the increasing use of advanced technologies.

Nowadays, network simulators are very useful to model a communications system. In this technical note we will focus in the creation of a new error model in NS-3 network simulator. This note describes the main steps to create or modify an Wi-Fi error model in this network simulator. In our case, we have created a new error model to included the approach of [1] to compute PER (Packet Error Rate) for vehicular environments.

Aiming at the defects of low precision and time cumulative error, an external wireless signal weighted centroid localization algorithm aided inertial positioning method is designed in this paper. According to the signal strength of each anchor node received at the test point, the distance between the anchor node and the anchor node is obtained by using the attenuation model of the wireless signal. Three anchor nodes are used to measure the distance between the anchor node and the measured point. We can obtain the area to be measured according to the actual situation, the position of the measured point is obtained by the weighted centroid localization algorithm and a combined model of wireless signal aided inertial navigation system is established. The simulation results show that the method can greatly improve the positioning accuracy and restrain the divergence of the longitude error and latitude error.

A new two-dimensional nanomaterial – Titanium Carbide MXene (Ti₃C₂-MXene) – was reported in 2011. In this work, the microscale models of Ti₃C₂-MXene nanomaterial are considered with polymer matrix. The nanocomposites are modeled using nacre-mimetic brick-and-mortar assembly configurations due to enhanced mechanical properties and interlocking mechanism between the Ti₃C₂-MXene (brick) and polymer matrices (mortar). The polymer matrix material (Epoxy-resin) is modeled with elastic and viscoelastic behavior (Kelvin-Voigt Model). The Finite Element Method is used for numerical analysis of the microscale models with the multi-point constraint method to include Ti₃C₂-MXene fillers in the polymer matrix. Ti₃C₂-MXenes are considered as thick plate elements with transverse shear effects. The response of elastic and viscoelastic models of polymer matrix are studied. Finally, a tensile and compressive load is applied at the microscale and the effective load transfer due to nacre-mimetic configuration is discussed. This paper provides nacre-mimetic models to pre-design the nanocomposite for optimal performance with damage resistance and enhanced strength.

The comparison of group means in latent variable models plays a vital role in empirical research in the social sciences. The present article discusses extensions of invariance alignment and Haberman linking concerning the choice of linking functions for comparisons of many groups. Robust linking functions are proposed for invariance alignment and robust Haberman linking that are particularly suited to item response data under partial invariance. In a simulation study, it is shown that both linking approaches have comparable performance, and in some conditions, the newly proposed robust Haberman linking outperforms invariance alignment.

The worldwide interconnected objects, called Internet of Things (IoTs), have been increasingly growing in the last several years. Different social media platforms and devices are continuously generating data about individuals and facilitate the technological and the social convergence of their Internet-based data and services with globalized users. These social and device-related IoTs create rooms for data breaches as such platforms provide ability to collect private and sensitive data. We assert that data breaches are fundamentally failures of access control - most users are too busy or technically ill-equipped to understand access control policy expressions and decisions. We argue that this is symptomatic of globalised societies structured by the conditions of algorithmic modernity; an era in which our data is increasingly interdependent on, and enmeshed with, ever more complex systems and processes that are vulnerable to attack. Ethically managing data breaches is now too complex for current access control systems, such as Role-Based Access Control (RBAC) and Context-Aware Access Control (CAAC). These systems do not provide an explicit mechanism to engage in decision making processes, about who should have access to what data and when, that are involved in data breaches. We argue that a policy ontology will contribute towards the development of Ethical CAAC better suited to attributing accountability for data breaches in the context of algorithmic modernity. We interrogate our proposed Ethical CAAC as a theoretical construct with implications for future policy ontology models and data breach countermeasures. An experimental study on the performance of the proposed framework is carried out with respect to a more generic CAAC framework.

Background: Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is an indispensable tool in metabolic engineering. The simplest variant of MFA relies on an overdetermined stoichiometric model of the cell’s metabolism under the pseudo-steady state assumption, to evaluate the intracellular flux distribution. Despite its long history, the issue of model error in the overdetermined MFA, particularly misspecifications of the stoichiometric matrix, has not received much attention. Method: We evaluated the performance of statistical tests from linear least square regressions, namely Ramsey RESET test, F-test and Lagrange multiplier test, in detecting model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA, particularly missing reactions. We further proposed an iterative procedure using the F-test to correct such an issue. Result: Using Chinese hamster ovary and random metabolic networks, we demonstrated that: (1) a statistically significant regression does not guarantee high accuracy of the flux estimates, (2) the removal of a reaction with a low flux magnitude can cause disproportionately large biases in the flux estimates, (3) the F-test could efficiently detect missing reactions, and (4) the proposed iterative procedure could robustly resolve the omission of reactions. Conclusion: Our work demonstrated that statistical analysis and tests could be used to systematically assess, detect and resolve model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA.

EIMIs face the challenge of adapting to the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal to achieve carbon neutrality. This change is being driven by consumer interest in low-carbon products, regulatory requirements from climate agreements and investors prioritizing sustainability. This pressure is pushing companies to go beyond short-term financial gains and integrate sustainability into their business. The growing awareness of the environmental impact of business models (BM) has fueled the development of Sustainable Business Models (SBMs). This study aims to link the discussion on the role of SBMs in the drivers of decarbonization, to improve the understanding of how the drivers can be integrated and enable new BMs for EIMIs. Based on a structured literature review, semi-structured interviews were conducted in the EIMIs. The study identifies BM-components that are influenced by these drivers and require sustainable business model innovation (SBMI). The results show that decarbonization drivers have a significant impact on all BM components. Experts emphasize the importance of collaborative approaches and cooperation throughout the value chain. This research elaborates on the importance of systematic analysis to understand how companies can effectively manage decarbonization drivers and suggests in-depth exploration within BM-research to uncover potential SBM design options.

River flood routing computes changes in shape of a flood wave over time as it travels downstream along a river. Conventional flood routing models, especially hydrodynamic models require high quality and quantity of input data such as measured hydrologic time series, geometric data, hydraulic structures and hydrological parameters. Unlike physically based models, machine learning algorithms, which are data driven models, do not require much knowledge about underlying physical processes and can identify complex nonlinearity between inputs and outputs. Due to the higher performance, less complexity, and low computation cost, novel machine learning methods as a single application or hybrid application were introduced by researchers to achieve more accurate and efficient flood routing. This paper reviews the recent application of machine learning methods in river flood routing.

The perception in pair trading is to recognize two stocks that move together, and their prices will converge to a mean value in future. However, finding the mean-reverted point at which the value of the pair will converge, and optimal boundaries of the trade is not easy. As uncertainty and model misspecifications may lead to losses. To cater for the problems, this study employs the novel entropic approach that utilizes entropy as penalty function for the misspecification of the model. The use of entropy as a measure of risk in pair trading is a nascent idea and this study utilizes daily data for 64 companies listed on PSX for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively to compute the returns based on the entropic approach. These companies cover the major sectors including Cement, Chemical, Automobile Assembler, Food and Personal Care Products, Oil and Gas Marketing Companies, Oil and Gas Exploration Companies Ltd, Power Generation and Distribution, Refinery and Pharmaceuticals. The returns to these stocks are then evaluated and compared with the Buy and Hold strategy. The results show positive and significant returns from pair trading using an entropic approach.

In this work, we study the dynamical behaviors of the electromagnetic fields and material responses in the hyperbolic metamaterial consisting of periodically arranged metallic and dielectric layers. The thickness of each unit cell is assumed to be much smaller than the wavelength of the electromagnetic waves, so the effective medium concept can be applied. When electromagnetic (EM) fields are present, the responses of the medium in the directions parallel to and perpendicular to the layers are like that of Drude and Lorentz media, respectively. We derive the energy density of the EM fields and the power loss in the effective medium based on Poynting theorem and the dynamical equations of the polarization field. We also show that the Lagrangian density of the system can be constructed. The Euler-Lagrangian equations yield the correct dynamical equations of the electromagnetic fields and the polarization field in the medium. The canonical momentum conjugates to every dynamical field can be derived from the Lagrangian density via differentiation or variation with respect to that field. We apply Legendre transformation to this system, and find that the resultant Hamitonian density is identical to the energy density, up to an irrelevant divergence term.

The quantified residence time distribution (RTD) provides a numerical characterization of mixing in the continue casting tundish, thus allowing the engineer to better understand the metallurgical performance of the reactor. This paper describes a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modelling study for analyzing the flow pattern and the residence time distribution in a five-strand tundish. Two passive scalar transport equations are applied to separately calculate the E-curve and F-curve in the tundish. The numerical modelling results are compared to the water modelling results for the validation of the mathematical model. The volume fraction of different flow regions (plug, mixed and dead) and the intermixing time during the ladle changeover are calculated to study the effects of the flow control device (FCD) on the tundish performance. The result shows that a combination of the U-baffle with deflector holes and the turbulence inhibitor has three major effects on the flow characteristics in the tundish: i) reduce the extent of the dead volume; ii) evenly distribute the liquid streams to each strand and iii) shorten the intermixing time during the ladle changeover operation.

In this paper we will present a simplified approach for extracting the ground level – a digital terrain model (DTM) – from the surface provided in a digital surface model (DSM). Most existing algorithms try to find the ground values in a digital surface model. Our approach works the opposite direction by detecting probable above ground areas. The main advantage of our approach is the possibility to use it with incomplete DSMs containing much no data values which can be e.g. occlusions in the calculated DSM. A smoothing or filling of such original derived DSMs will destroy much information which is very useful for deriving a ground surface from the DSM. Since the presented approach needs steep edges to detect potential high objects it will fail on smoothed and filled DSMs. After presenting the algorithm it will be applied to a test area in Salzburg and compared to a terrain model freely available from the Austrian government.

The primary attraction of IaaS is providing elastic resources on demand. It becomes imperative that IaaS-users have an effective methodology for learning what resources they require, how many resources and for how long they need. However, the heterogeneity of resources, the diversity resource demands of different cloud applications and the variation of application-user behaviors pose IaaS-users big challenge. In this paper, we purpose a unified resource demand forecasting model suiting for different applications, various resources and diverse time-varying workload patterns. With the model, taking input from parameterized applications, resources and workload scenarios, the corresponding resources demands during any time interval can be deduced as output. The experiments configure concrete functions and parameters to help understanding the above model.

Few studies have examined the pros and cons of integrated TB and HIV service delivery in public healthcare facilities, and even fewer have proposed conceptual models for improved integration. This study intends to fill that vacuum by outlining the development of a facility-based paradigm for integrating TB, HIV and patients services. The design of the proposed model were in stages that involved the evaluation of existing TB-HIV integration model and synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative data from the study sites which were selected public healthcare facilities at both rural and peri-urban settings in Oliver Reginald (O.R) Tambo District Municipality in Eastern Cape, South Africa. Secondary data on 2009-2013 TB-HIV clinical outcomes were obtained from multiple sources for quantitative analysis. Qualitative data involved focus group discussions among patient and heath care staff, which was thematically analysed. The development of a possibly better model and validation of this model show that the district's health system was reinforced by the model's guiding principles, which placed a strong emphasis on inputs, processes, outcomes, and integration effects.The model is adaptable to different healthcare delivery systems but will require support from healthcare stakeholders and professionals to be successful.

In this paper we provide an ``expository overview" of classic epidemic projection models. Starting with the simple case of an epidemic that grows exponentially we then investigate ``compartmental" models. These assume that the growth of an infected population is limited endogenously by the size of the underlying pool of susceptibles. We then describe a new family of so-called "Exo-r" statistical models, which hinge on an exogenously driven growth rate of the infected population. This family, which can be used to model both infections and deaths, captures parsimoniously both the depletion of susceptibles and the effect of interventions such as lockdowns and ``social distancing". The model is used to fit numbers of Covid-19 infections in China. It is also used to model and project deaths in the United States. Results are used to inform a discussion on i) the challenges at hand and ii) the extent to which epidemic projection models may be useful despite being wrong.

The emphasis in the automotive industry towards sustainable mobility has led to a significant interest in hybrid-electric propulsion systems with high energy density batteries. Addressing the needs of this strategy, the battery market is exploring new technologies to improve the safety and lifespan of electric vehicles. To this end, there is a focus on the all-solid-state battery (ASSB) technology for its cycle capabilities. Filling the current void in the literature pertaining to accurate ageing models for ASSBs, in this work, we present an enhanced version of the numerical ageing model, originally developed for liquid electrolyte based batteries, to forecast the development of the solid electrolyte interface layer that is the major cause of battery capacity fading. The model has been tested on prototype batteries and reveals an accuracy of 99%. The capacity fade in ASSBs has been investigated under different conditions, and the enhanced ageing model has been validated using experimental data from these batteries. The findings suggest that there is potential for solid-state batteries to be commercialized, although significant work is needed to match the manufacturing level of lithium-ion batteries with liquid electrolytes.

In order to study the adsorption process and adsorption characteristics of shale oil at the macro scale, the isothermal adsorption experiments of illite and kerogen on heptadecane (oil phase) solution were carried out by infrared spectrophotometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The reaction mechanism of alkane solution concentration and temperature in the adsorption process was investigated. The adsorption characteristics of heptadecane on the surface and pores of illite and kerogen were elucidated by adsorption isotherm model and adsorption thermodynamic model. The results show that: The concentration of alkane solution contributes to the adsorption of illite and kerogen. As the concentration of the solution continues to increase, the adsorption rate gradually slows down. However, the temperature hardly affects the adsorption rate. At 25℃, 50℃ and 60℃, the adsorption process of illite on alkane solution is more consistent with Langmuir model and Freundlich model, respectively. The difference is that Langmuir model is suitable for describing the whole adsorption process of kerogen on alkane solution. 3) The adsorption process of illite and kerogen to heptadecane solution is an endothermic reaction. Heating helps to accelerate the migration rate of alkanes, which is conducive to the adsorption reaction. The research results clarify the adsorption characteristics of shale oil heavy components from the macro level, and fill the research gap in the application of solid-liquid isothermal adsorption physical experiments to the adsorption and occurrence of shale oil.

Colleges and universities play a crucial role in fostering innovation, making it essential to explore effective strategies for promoting innovation at the institutional policy level. This paper focuses on the establishment of intellectual property (IP) model cities as a starting point and conducts an empirical analysis using innovation data from 234 cities and 942 colleges and universities between 2007 and 2017. By constructing a multi-temporal double-difference model, this study reveals that the establishment of IP model cities effectively fosters innovation in colleges and universities. Further analysis demonstrates that this promotion effect is particularly significant in the western region, key cities, key colleges and universities, as well as in the fields of invention and utility model patents. These conclusions withstand a series of robustness tests, confirming their validity. In terms of the underlying mechanisms, it is found that the national IP pilot city policy has a substantial impact on university innovation by promoting research and development (R&D) investment and strengthening innovation cooperation. The insights provided by this study offer valuable policy recommendations for leveraging the innovation potential of the IP model city policy, thereby driving economic transformation, upgrading, and fostering innovation development in China.

While considering the sensitivity over the parameter optimization, it is essential to determine which parameters have the most significant implications on model performance. This study focuses on the baseflow recession constant as one of the independent basin parameters to forecast low flows, perform hydrograph analysis, and calibrate rainfall-runoff models for significant improvement. Prior studies examined that the optimization of data adjustment parameters can improve the hydrological model performance and determine the minimum acceptable data length for data scarce regions using the Xinanjaing model. However, it is essential to pay special attention to the sensitivity of the recession constant, which can also impact the model performance during the data scarcity. Therefore, this study extends the research to comprehend the recession constant sensitivity over data adjustment parameters in the shorter datasets leading to more reliable parameter estimation. In terms of that, this study explores how recession constant affects hydrological parameter estimation on annual scale while keeping data adjustment parameters constant in continuous hydrological modeling, employing the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model as a case study. This study considered two approaches of recession constant (cg); (i) assessing the relationship between cg and the data adjustment parameter (Cep), for the 28-year datasets, (ii) investigating the significant impacts of the sensitivity of cg over Cep in shorter datasets which can affect the estimation of the acceptable minimum data length in the data scarce basins. The study underscores the importance of the recession constant sensitivity for reliable continuous hydrological model predictions, especially in data-scared areas. The study’s outcomes enhance the understanding of the importance of parameter sensitivity and its relationship in conceptual hydrological modeling during the data limitations.

Using the Super-SBM method, this study calculates the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of 30 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2019. Then, using the systematic GMM model, spatial Durbin model, and mediating effect model, it examines the direct effect, spatial effect, and influence mechanism of the digital economy (DE) on CEE. It was found that (1) the DE significantly promoted regional CEE, but had a negative effect on CEE in provinces with high economic correlation; (2) mechanism studies showed that the DE improved CEE by reducing energy intensity, promoting industrial upgrading and green technology innovation; (3) regional heterogeneity analysis found that the DE significantly improved CEE in eastern provinces, but not in central and western provinces. DE improves CEE in provinces with high level of economic development, but decreases CEE in provinces with low level of economic development.This paper provides some empirical and theoretical references for the development of DE to improve CEE.

In this paper, a novel strategy is adopted in a degradation model to affect the implied lifetime distribution. The multiplicative degradation model is utilized as a postulate in the model. It will be established that the implied lifetime distribution forms a classical mixture model. In this mixture model, time-to-failure is lying with some probabilities between two first passage times of the degradation process to reach two specified levels. Stochastic comparisons in the model under a change in the probabilities are studied. Several examples are provided to highlight the applicability of the results in the cases when typical degradation models are candidate.

During the dry season, glaciers contribute significantly to the water supply downstream, especially in areas with seasonal rainfall. It is important to have physical-based glacier models, which are more advanced in quantifying the future dynamics of glaciers and melt distribution. Toward this purpose, an investigation of different numerical modeling tools and their approach is conducted and planned further to incorporate a glacier module into a spatially distributed model called mHM (Mesoscale Hydrological Model, mhm-ufz.org). An open-source tool called MATILDA (Modeling Water Resources in Glacierized Catchments) is used beforehand to implement the glacier entities to the application catchment Maipo Basin in Chile. Due to limited time availability and source of data, the glacier melt of the MATILDA model is integrated into the mHM model to see what the implications would be if the glacier module was implemented from scratch in mHM. The analysis of the glacier hydrology resulting from the Maipo-Glacier model was carried out by comparing the modeled glacier flows with the total observed flows. To assess the credibility of the models, the results are compared based on three goodness-fit measures, specifically r^2Coefficient of Determination), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), and KGE (Kling-Gupta Efficiency). Application of the mHM model in the Maipo basin in Central Chile is performed by using prepared input datasets, showing that the approach is viable as evidenced by a Kling-Gupta Efficiency of 0.80 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.70 from the starting periods of 1950 to 2020. Overestimation by the mHM model occurs during the late summer season, particularly when temperature decreases. The MATILDA model is used on glacier melt distribution, forcing data is prepared from regional datasets, and a glacier profile is constructed from ice thickness datasets. According to the model, the average KGE result for the years 2012–14 and 2015–18 was respectively 0.44 and 0.41. Glacier melt produced by Matilda is in the range of 58-68 % of the total runoff and the glacier area decreased by 22-23% during the simulation period from 2012-14 and 2016-2018. A pilot sub-basin Olivares is used in the coupling mHM model with initializing MATILDA glacier melt. The new model is underestimated during the seasonal transition in the initial days of the simulation. A considerable portion of the ablation period might be missed as a result of the initial storage quality, true glacier extent, and height distribution being understated. As a conclusion, the mHM Model was capable of predicting runoff well in a mountainous region and could also serve as a monitoring tool for watershed management. There are differences in results between the two models because of the different spatial resolutions and methodologies. MATILDA have a glacier retreat routine that gives better result for the glacier characteristics such as. A new glacier dynamics model needs to be implemented in the future to develop intermediate complexity, bridge catchment, and glacier scales after using the mHM, MATILDA, and mHM with MATIDLA model for analysis of glacier and highlighting the model's deficiencies in the initial period of simulative assessments.

One of the most broadly used models for membrane fouling is the Hermia model, which separates this phenomenon into four blocking mechanisms, each with an associated parameter n. These mechanisms are complete blocking (n=2), intermediate blocking (n=1), standard blocking (n=3/2), and cake formation (n=3/2). The original model, which was obtained through experimental data, is given by an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) dependent on n. At the time, this ODE was only solved for these four values of n, which limits the effectiveness of the model when adjusted to experimental data. This paper aims to not only mathematically prove the original Hermia model but also to broaden the scope of this model for any real number n by using the original ODE, the equations of fluid mechanics, and the properties of single and multivariable calculus. The extended Hermia model (EHM) is given by a power law for any n≠2 and is given by an exponential function at n=2. To better test the model, we have performed the model fitting of the EHM and compared its performance to the original four pore-blocking mechanisms in 6 micro- and ultrafiltration examples. In all examples, the EHM performed consistently better than the four original pore-blocking mechanisms. Changes in the blocking mechanisms concerning transmembrane pressure (TMP), crossflow rate (CFR), crossflow velocity (CFV), membrane composition, and pretreatments are also discussed.

This study aimed to determine the feasibility of the development of an over-the-counter (OTC) screening model using machine learning for breast cancer screening in the Asian women population. Data were retrospectively collected from women who came to the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia. Five screening models were developed based on machine learning methods; random forest, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), elastic-net logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Features used for the development of the screening models were limited to information from the patients’ registration form. The model performance was assessed across the dense and non-dense groups. SVM had the best sensitivity while elastic-net logistic regression had the best specificity. In terms of precision, both random forest elastic-net logistic regression had the best performance, while, in terms of PR-AUC, XGBoost had the best performance. Additionally, SVM had a more balanced performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity across the mammographic density groups. The three most important features were age at examination, weight and number of children. In conclusion, OTC models developed from machine learning methods can improve the prognostic process of breast cancer in Asian women.

A micromechanical model is implemented to indicate the progressive fatigue problem of a laminated composite with a central circular hole under fatigue loading based on a finite element model. The mechanical properties of the composite lamina are represented based on the characteristics of the fiber and the matrix through a micromechanics model. An appropriate algorithm is then adopted to simulate fatigue damage development in the composite lamina. According to this algorithm, the stress field of the composite subjected to fatigue load is initially obtained using the finite element method. Finally, the predicted results of the stresses in the constituents i.e. fiber and matrix are determined according to the micromechanical bridging model. Finally applying proper damage driving relations leads to damage degree in each element. The proposed model is proven to be successful in the observation of the fatigue behavior with stiffness degradation in each element of the composite in each cycle. Results are reported and validated using those micromechanical models and experimental data available in the literature.

Background: Outbreak of the Covid-19 is now an ongoing global health emergency. At the end of December 2019, the first infection was reported in Wuhan and the world did not pay attention to this extremely contaminated disease and plucked to react rapidly. The World is in an vulnerable state in disease spreading, facing a great loss of lives and socio-economic aspects also. That is why we have proposed a potential mathematical model with data analysis to predict and control the outcome of this pandemic. Methods: The model presented the epidemic dynamics of multiple compartments. We collected available online data of Spain. In primary step, we estimated the parameters using either the data analysis or reference papers. Then we did the data fitting analysis in comparison with the outcome of our mathematical results. The results of the system depended not only the parameters also on social consciousness. Results: It is found that disease progression in this model is determined by the basic reproductive ratio, $R_0$, the actual epidemic of $R_0$ and effective $R(t)$ of each day. If $R_0>1$, the number of latently infected individuals grows exponentially; endemic solution is stable while infection rate decays if $R_0<1$. The optimal control theory stated that vaccination and treatment strategies are highly effective for reducing both susceptible and infected population and to increase the recover rate high. In Spain, after state of alarm (quarantine) on 14 March 2020, reported cases increasing for 13 days only and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decline albeit with small fluctuation. Our proposed model approximates that the disease in Spain could be fully under control by after July 2020. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, reduce the death rate and will ensure social-economic stability.

In this paper, the seven traditional models of PV modules are reviewed comprehensively to find out the appropriate model to be reliable. All the models are validated using the Matlab code and make a graphical comparison. The accuracy and convergence of each model are evaluated using data of manufactured PV panels. Then, a novel model is proposed showing its consistent performance. The most three key parameters of single-diode model are self revised to adapt to various type of PV modules. This new method is verified in three types of PV panels' data measured by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), US. The validated data show promising results when the error RMSEs' range of the proposed model is under 0.36.

Model selection and model averaging have been the popular approaches in handling modelling uncertainties. Fan and Li(2006) laid out a unified frame work for variable selection via penalized likelihood. The tuning parameter selection is vital in the optimization problem for the penalized estimators in achieving consistent selection and optimal estimation. Since the OLSpost-LASSO estimator by Belloni and Chernozhukov (2013), few studies have focused on the finite sample performances of the class of OLS post-penalty estimators with the tuning parameter choice determined by different tuning parameter selection approaches. We aim to supplement the existing model selection literature by studying such a class of OLS post-selection estimators. Inspired by the Shrinkage Averaging Estimator (SAE) by Schomaker(2012) and the Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) criterion by Hansen (2007), we further propose a Shrinkage Mallows Model Averaging (SMMA) estimator for averaging high dimensional sparse models. Based on the Monte Carlo design by Wang et al. (2009) which features an expanding sparse parameter space as the sample size increases, our Monte Carlo design further considers the effect of the effective sample size and the degree of model sparsity on the finite sample performances of model selection and model averaging estimators. From our data examples, we find that the OLS post-SCAD(BIC) estimator in finite sample outperforms most of the current penalized least squares estimators as long as the number of parameters does not exceed the sample size. In addition, the SMMA performs better given sparser models. This supports the use of the SMMA estimator when averaging high dimensional sparse models.

Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP which is important as it enables one to compare the climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are 1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially-explicit information), 2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, 3) the use of different climate models, 4) socioeconomic assumptions and 5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02 - 0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population increase and low income (0.6%) than in an optimistic scenario (0.00%).