ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0422.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geophysics Keywords: tephra; ground-based weather radar; Bayesian approach; nowcasting; ensemble prediction system
Online: 23 November 2021 (13:00:31 CET)
Tephra plumes can cause a significant hazard for surrounding towns, infrastructure, and air traffic. The current work presents the use of a small and compact X-band Multi-Parameter (X-MP) radar for the remote tephra detection and tracking of two eruptive events at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia, in May and June 2018. Tephra detection was done by analysing the multiple parameters of radar: copolar correlation and reflectivity intensity. These parameters were used to cancel unwanted clutter and retrieve tephra properties, which are grain size and concentration. Real-time spatial and temporal forecasting of tephra dispersal was performed by applying an advection scheme (nowcasting) in the manner of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Cross-validation was done using field-survey data, radar observations, and Himawari-8 imagery. The nowcasting model computed both the displacement and growth and decaying rate of the plume based on the temporal changes in two-dimensional movement and tephra concentration, respectively. Our results with ground-based data, where the radar-based estimated grain size distribution fell within the range of in-situ data. The uncertainty of real-time forecasted tephra plume depends on the initial condition, which affects the growth-and decaying rate estimation. The EPS improves the predictability rate by reducing the number of missed and false forecasted events. Our findings and the method presented here are suitable for early warning of tephra fall hazard at the local scale.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0186.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Geology Keywords: tephra in marine sediments; Ash Zone I in North Atlantic; tephrochronology of Termination I
Online: 19 June 2019 (15:38:40 CEST)
Based on the geochemical analysis of the volcanic material from the sediment core AMK-340, central zone of the Reykjanes Ridge, we could detect two ash-bearing sediment units accumulated during the Termination I. They correlate to the Ash Zone I in the North Atlantic Late Quaternary sediments having an age of 12170-12840, within the Younger Dryas cold chronozone, and 13600-14540 years, within and Bølling-Allerød warm chronozone. The ash of the Younger Dryas unit is presented mostly by the mafic and persilicic material originated from the Icelandic volcanoes; Vedde Ash is presented in one sediment sample from this unit. The ash of the Bølling-Allerød unit is presented mostly by the mafic shards which are related to the basalts of the rift zone on the Reykjanes Ridge, having presumably the local origin. A detection of Vedde Ash helped to specify the timing of the previously reconstructed paleoceanographic changes for the Termination I in the point of study: a significant warming in the area could occur as early as 300 years prior to the end of the conventional Younger Dryas cold chronozone.