A scenario-based approach to the impacts of land use and climate change can help in identifying future policy directions. This study models the impacts of different land use and climate change scenarios on the forest ecosystems of South Korea to identify national-scale forest policy options. Climatically suitable forest areas for 1,031 climate vulnerable plant species were identified for current time and for 2050. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections. We built forest conversion models and created four 2050 forest scenarios: (1) forest loss continues at current rates; (2) similar loss, but with conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation and overall reduction of loss by 50%. We then crossed the forest conversion models with the climate-driven change in species richness, and categorized current forest areas into four classes to offer forest policy alternatives. By deploying the scenarios which preserve climatically suitable forests, the average species richness where forests converting to other land uses reduced significantly. We suggest conserving forests with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of forest plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

Climate change may cause organisms to seek thermal refuge from rising temperatures, either by shifting their ranges or seeking microrefugia within their existing ranges. We evaluate the potential for thermal stratification to provide refuge for two fish species in the San Francisco Estuary (SFE): Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). We compiled water temperature data from multiple monitoring programs to evaluate spatial, daily, hourly, intra-annual, and inter-annual trends in stratification using generalized additive models. We used our data and models to predict the locations and periods of time that the bottom of the water column could function as thermal refuge for salmon and smelt. Periods in which the bottom was cooler than surface primarily occurred during the peak of summer and during the afternoons, with more prominent stratification during warmer years. Although the SFE is often exceedingly warm for fish species and well-mixed overall, we identified potential for thermal refugia in a long and deep terminal channel for Delta Smelt, and in the periods bordering summer for Chinook Salmon. Thermal stratification may increase as the climate warms, and pockets of cooler water at depth, though limited, may become more important for at-risk fishes in the future.

In the cold deserts of the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) the suitability of soil for microbial life is determined by both contemporary processes and legacy effects. Climatic changes and accompanying glacial activity have caused local extinctions and geochemical changes to soil ecosystems over several million years, while high elevation refugia may have escaped these disturbances and existed under relatively stable conditions. This study describes the impact of historical glacial and lacustrine disturbance events on microbial communities across the MDV. Soil bacterial communities from 17 sites representing either putative refugia or sites disturbed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (22-17kya) were characterized using 16S metabarcoding. Regardless of geographic distance, several putative refugia sites at elevations above 600 meter displayed highly similar microbial communities. At a regional scale, community composition was found to be influenced by elevation and geographic proximity more so than soil geochemical properties. These results suggest that despite the extreme conditions, diverse microbial communities exist in these putative refugia that have presumably remained undisturbed at least through the last glacial maximum. We suggest that similarities in microbial communities can be interpreted as evidence for historical climate legacies on an ecosystem-wide scale.