ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0032.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: twisted Wang transform; shape factor; EP curve; reinsurance; numerical optimization
Online: 4 July 2022 (05:08:29 CEST)
The twisted Wang transform distribution family, defined as the composition of parameter shifted inverse CDF function with an original CDF function, is found to be most suitable for matching low shape factor distributions, characterizing hard to fit or to simulate reinsurance portfolio losses for some perils from our previous study. Among them, the best form for matching a hard-to-fit empirical loss distribution for a specific peril, is the Exponential Fractional Extra Power 0 Distribution in (0,1) with CDF:.The simplest yet still a good form of this family is the Transformed Hyperbolic Tangent Distribution with CDF:,which has analytical formulas for the moments. The twisted Wang transform distribution family is compared and confirmed to be superior to all other well-known distribution families through extensive numerical optimization practice, distribution forms guesses, and computer-aided exploration experiments.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1583.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: Design; Machine Learning; Expert Systems; Fuzzy Logic; Automatic Rule Generation; Information Fusion; Intelligent System; Decision-making; Wang–Mendel
Online: 23 May 2023 (05:36:00 CEST)
Intelligent systems are increasingly present in various areas of society, gaining special relevance in healthcare environments. In this work, grounded on previous developments proposed by the authors, the evolution and improvement of a novel intelligent system focused on the diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is addressed. To do this, starting from two packages of information of a heterogeneous nature, and deploying a set of Machine Learning classification algorithms, focused each of them on different levels of the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), as well as a set of cascaded expert systems, it is possible to obtain a series of risk metric pairs (Statistical Risk, Symbolic Risk) for each AHI level, understood as a warning forecast associated with the early detection of the pathology. The risk indicators of each pair are subsequently aggregated by means of a symbolic inference system, whose knowledge base was determined using the automatic rule generation approach proposed by Wang and Mendel. At the output of each inference system, a risk indicator is obtained for each AHI level, the Apnea Risk, whose interpretation makes it possible to discriminate between patients who could suffer OSA and those who do not, as well as to generate the appropriate recommendations. For the initial tests of the system, the design and development of a specific software artifact was carried out using data from 4,400 patients from the Álvaro Cunqueiro Hospital in Vigo, obtaining when applied to the test set AUC values within the range 0.74–0.88, which invites optimism and points to the benefits expected from the architecture of the proposed intelligent system.