During an epidemic outbreak it is useful for planners and responsible authorities to be able to plan ahead to estimate when an outbreak of an epidemic is likely to ease and when the last case can be predicted in their area of responsibility. Theoretically this could be done for a point source epidemic using epidemic curve forecasting. The extensive data now coming out of China makes it possible to test if this can be done using MS Excel a standard spreadsheet program available to most offices. The available data is divided up for whole China and the different provinces. This and the high number of cases makes the analysis possible. Data for new confirmed infections for Hubei, Hubei outside Wuhan, China excluding Hubei as well as Zhejiang and Fujian provinces all follow a log-normal distribution that can be used to make a rough estimate for the date of the last new confirmed cases in respective areas. In the version 2 continuation work, 9 additional days were added for the Chinese data to evaluate the previous predictions. The extra data then available from China follows the previous predicted trend supporting the usefulness of this simple technique. In the version 2 we also tested the feasibility for a non-specialist to make similar predictions using additional data from S Korea now available. In this third continuation the predictions for Version 2 are evaluated for S Korea and fits well the beginning of the decline but it seems to be difficult to bring down numbers of cases per day under about 100 new cases per day, potential reasons for this is discussed. To further evaluate when in a prediction becomes reliable the Chinese data was used to evaluate to make predictions for each day around the peak in number of cases and after2-3 consecutive days of decreasing new cases per day the prediction becomes reliable. In version 3 data for Italy just reaching this point was used to make further predictions for that country. A second new analysis was also added to use the fitted equation to detect when the acceleration of new cases per day stopped increasing exponentially. In the Chinese case this measured point coincides with the date of the complete Hubei lockdown and in the new Italian analysis it coincides with the mandatory Italian lockdown. Predicted dates for the end of the Italian outbreak is also added. In version 4 we expand the analysis to selected European countries, USA and the World as a whole and try to predict the end of the outbreak. We further discuss the apparent success of the used techniques that might work to introduce a “new normal” not very different to the previous to stop secondary outbreaks of COVID19 and future COVIDs that are sure to come.

Key genes needed for maintenance and growth for the two pathogens, Fusarium graminearum and Magnaporthe oryzae, were identified. These are genes that are induced in response to maintenance requirements (stress) and growth requirements. The processes involved are synthesizing arginine, synthesis of DNA-bases, nitric oxide synthesis needing arginine, autophagy, DNA synthesis, and DNA repair. A simplified regulatory network for these key genes for both organisms was constructed as a hypothesis for the work, and procedures previously developed to use sets of downloaded transcriptomic data were used to test hypotheses concerning what time under the course of infection of plants the key genes are expressed. The analysis shows that the transcription efforts (costs) to maintain the fungal cells (maintenance) are high before infection and during early infection. During the following biotrophic stage, maintenance activities drop, followed by a dramatic increase in the necrotrophic stage transition. Finally, in the necrotrophic stage, maintenance is again lower despite the high growth rate that can also cause stress. All identified genes' expressions behaved almost similar with an increased expression in the biotrophy-necrotrophy transition for both fungi except the DNA repair genes PARP/PARG that was not responding or absent (PARG) in the mainly clonal M. oryzae. This PARG expression pattern might indicate that M. oryzae is more subject to evolution by point mutations than F. graminearum, where sexual reproduction is frequent. The potential consequences of this in the development and the accelerated breakage of host species resistance in a Red Queen dynamics scenario are discussed. The analysis demonstrates the possibility of using large transcriptome datasets and co-regulations between key genes to test hypotheses. This technique's advantages complement molecular techniques that employ knockouts and over-expression of target genes to suggest that genes' roles are discussed.