The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. As of April 17, 2020, more than 2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide. Northern Italy is one of the world’s centers of active coronavirus cases. In this study, we predicted the spread of COVID-19 and its burden on hospital care under different conditions of social distancing in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, the two regions of Italy most affected by the epidemic. To do this, we used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) deterministic model, which encompasses compartments relevant to public health interventions such as quarantine. A new compartment L was added to the model for isolated infected population, i.e., individuals tested positives that do not need hospital care. We found that in Lombardy restrictive containment measures should be prolonged at least until early July to avoid a resurgence of hospitalizations; on the other hand, in Emilia-Romagna the number of hospitalized cases could be kept under a reasonable amount with a higher contact rate. Our results suggest that territory-specific forecasts under different scenarios are crucial to enhance or take new containment measures during the epidemic.

Objective: On March 11, 2020 the WHO declared that COVID-19 is pandemic. Among the risk factors for many infectious diseases, a role of the ABO blood group system is reported in the literature. We argue whether it is necessary to investigate the relationship between ABO blood groups and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and if we should consider some blood groups as potential risk factors for COVID-19. Results: Based on the scientific evidence reported in this letter, we believe that further studies are needed to investigate how the ABO polymorphism influences the host susceptibility, individual response and clinical risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Frauds and misconducts have been common in the history of science. Recent events connected to the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted how the risks and consequences of this are no longer acceptable. Two papers, addressing the treatment of COVID-19, have been published in two of the most prestigious medical journals. In both, the authors declared to have analysed electronic records from a private corporation, which apparently collected data of tens of thousands of patients, coming from thousands of hospitals. Both papers have been retracted a few weeks later. When such events happen, the confidence of the population in scientific research is likely to be weakened. The objective of this paper is to highlight how the current system endangers not only the reliability of scientific research, but also the very foundations of the trust system on which modern healthcare is based. Having shed the light on the dangers of a system without appropriate monitoring, we propose to improve the research process using the promising aspects of the distributed ledger technology which, thanks to the characteristics of immutability, decentralization and transparency, appears among the best solutions to avoid the repetition of the mistakes linked to the recent and past history of research.

In late February 2020, Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has aggressively spread around many bordering provinces of the three most productive regions of northern Italy (Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia Romagna). The first outbreak exploded in the municipality of Codogno (Lombardy). The province of Ferrara (Emilia Romagna) has been indicated as an anomaly due to the lower number of confirmed cases (1·065 cases per 1000 population). We argue that the spread of the virus throughout Emilia Romagna has a possible explanation in the geographical location of most of its provinces along the Via Emilia, an ancient Roman road that runs throughout the region, which we consider as a proxy for citizens’ movement, number of contacts, and social interactions. In order to test this hypothesis, we used a non-linear multiple regression analysis on aggregate province data to investigate the association between the rates of confirmed cases and the distance from the Via Emilia. The results indicate that the infection rate decreases proportionally to the distance from Via Emilia (-14% every 10 km, p<0·001). Further studies are needed, but Ferrara’s “peculiarity” might have a geographical/behavioral explanation, due to its isolation from the regional main connection routes, which are still revolving around a road built by the ancient Romans 2,000 years ago.