Generating early warning signals of reduced resilience in ecosystems is crucial for conservation and management endeavors. However, the practical implications of such early warning signal systems are still limited by the lack of data and uncertainties associated with predicting complex systems such as ecosystems. This research aims to investigate the feasibility of developing an early warning system capable of identifying an upcoming critical transition within mangrove forest ecosystems. Using time series analysis of remote sensing images, the resilience of mangrove forests was explored across two distinct study sites. One site (Qeshm Island) has been adversely affected by land-use and land-cover changes, while the other (Gabrik) serves as a reference ecosystem. The study uses data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite to quantify three remotely sensed indices: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and the Modified Vegetation Water Ratio (MVWR). In addition, Landsat data has been used to explore temporal alterations in land-use and land cover. To identify early warning signals, indicators such as autocorrelation (acf(1)), standard deviation (SD), and skewness (SK) are applied. The findings indicate a signal of reduced resilience by a significant increase in NDVI statistical metrics (acf(1): 0.50, SD: 0.9). Although MNDWI showed significant early warning signals in Qeshm Island (acf(1); 0.86, SD: 0.90), it provided a false alarm in the reference study site. MVWR failed to generate early warning signals of reduced resilience (acf(1); -0.100, SD: -0.07, SK: -0.21). Land-use land-cover change may explain reduced resilience in the forests. This study not only emphasizes the potential of remote sensing in monitoring the state of mangrove forests but also contributes to advancing our understanding of ecosystem dynamics. The findings of this study can be integrated with ecosystem management tools to enhance the effectiveness of conservation efforts aimed at safeguarding mangroves. This is the first report of the successful application of remote sensing in generating early warning signals of reduced resilience within mangrove forests in the Middle East.

Small Island States (SIDS) are among the nations most exposed to climate change (CC) and are characterised by a high degree of vulnerability. Their special nature means there is a need for more studies focused on the limits to CC adaptation on such fragile nations, particularly in respect of their problems and constraints. This paper addressed a perceived need for research into the limitations of adaptation on SIDS, focusing on the many restrictions which are unique to them. The main research question raised by this study was that how and to what extent the challenges by human activities (e.g., agriculture and tourism) posed to coastlines of SIDS could be addressed. This paper identified and described the adaptation limits they have, by using a review of the literature and an analysis of case studies from a sample of five SIDS in the Caribbean and Pacific regions (Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Cook Islands, Fiji, Solomon Islands, and Tonga). The findings of this research showed that an adaptable SIDS is characterised by awareness of various values, appreciation and understanding of a diversity of impacts and vulnerabilities, and acceptance of certain losses through change. The implications of this paper are two-fold. It explains why island nations continue to suffer from the impacts of CC, and suggest some of the means via which adequate policies may support SIDS in their efforts to cope with the threats associated with a changing climate. This study concluded that, despite the technological and ecological limits (hard limits) affecting natural systems, adaptation to CC is not only limited by such complex forces, but also by societal factors (soft limits) that could potentially be overcome by more adequate adaptation strategies.