The assessment and prediction of drought risk under future climate change and land use land cover (LULC) scenarios is critically important for drought prevention and mitigation, as it enables a clearer understanding of potential shifts in drought patterns. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate sub-seasonal and seasonal meteorological and hydrological drought hazards across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) under projected future climate conditions and LULC patterns. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent future climate for 2025-2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future LULC distributions. Meteorological and hydrological drought risks across different YRB zones are evaluated through a copula-based risk assessment approach, based on the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity. The results indicate that sub-seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts will likely be the primary concern moving forward. Specifically, the upper YRB (zones A, B, C) exhibits greater vulnerability to sub-seasonal meteorological drought, while the Loess Plateau (zones C, E) shows higher susceptibility to sub-seasonal hydrological drought. Moreover, zone F in the downstream region may experience increased seasonal hydrological drought risk due to projected urban expansion in the middle and lower portions of the YRB.

The investigation of the spatiotemporal propagation characteristics of the "meteorological-agricultural-hydrological" drought system, under diverse climatic conditions, is crucial for the development of a robust drought warning system and the effective implementation of proactive drought prevention and resilience strategies. To achieve this, the current study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate key components of the watershed water cycle, such as evaporation, surface water, soil water, and groundwater. Specifically, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), and the Nonlinear Joint Hydrological Drought Index (NJHDI) are employed to characterize meteorological drought, agricultural drought, and hydrological drought, respectively. By analyzing the correlation between these types of drought, the propagation characteristics of the "meteorological-agricultural-hydrological" drought system are elucidated using the rigorous strongest correlation coefficient method. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is chosen as the case study for this research. Results showed that (1) The propagation time from meteorological to agricultural drought exhibited distinct seasonal characteristics, with durations of 5-6 months in spring, 2-3 months in summer, 3-5 months in autumn, and 6-8 months in winter. Compared to 1961-1990, the propagation time increased in spring and summer but decreased in autumn and winter during 1991-2010 for most YRB regions. (2) The agricultural to hydrological drought propagation showed no clear seasonal differences but increased over time. Specifically, zone C (arid/semi-arid with moderate temperatures) had shorter propagation time of 1-5 months, while zones B (transitional plateau to mid-latitude) and E (semi-arid/semi-humid temperate continental climate) experienced longer propagation time of 7-12 months. (3) Despite the extended timescales, agricultural-hydrological drought correlation was weaker than meteorological-agricultural linkage. This is because meteorological deficits directly reduce soil moisture, rapidly inducing agricultural drought. However, groundwater sustaining baseflow during agricultural drought delays streamflow deficits, prolonging the agricultural-hydrological propagation time.