ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201803.0088.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: extreme water level; hydrodynamic model; Monte Carlo; joint probability; model calibration and verification; Danshuei River system
Online: 12 March 2018 (07:56:58 CET)
Estimates of extreme water level return periods in river systems are crucial for hydraulic engineering design and planning. Recorded historical water level data of Taiwan’s rivers are not long enough for traditional frequency analyses when predicting extreme water levels for different return periods. In this study, the integration of a one-dimensional flash flood routing hydrodynamic model with the Monte Carlo simulation was developed to predict extreme water levels in the Danshuei River system of northern Taiwan. The numerical model was calibrated and verified with observed water levels using four typhoon events. The results indicated a reasonable agreement between the model simulation and observation data. Seven parameters, including the astronomical tide and surge height at the mouth of the Danshuei River and the river discharge at five gauge stations, were adopted to calculate the joint probability and generate stochastic scenarios via the Monte Carlo simulation. The validated hydrodynamic model driven by the stochastic scenarios was then used to simulate extreme water levels for further frequency analysis. The design water level was estimated using different probability distributions in the frequency analysis at five stations. The design high-water levels for a 200-year return period at Guandu Bridge, Taipei Bridge, Hsin-Hai Bridge, Da-Zhi Bridge, and Chung-Cheng Bridge were 2.90 m, 5.13 m, 6.38 m, 6.05 m, and 9.94 m, respectively. The estimated design water levels plus the freeboard are proposed and recommended for further engineering design and planning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0203.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Suspended sediment, Hydrodynamics, Numerical model, SELFE-SED, Wind-driven current, Tsuei-Feng Lake
Online: 29 May 2017 (19:13:37 CEST)
A three-dimensional, unstructured grid, hydrodynamic and suspended-sediment transport model (i.e., SELFE-SED) was developed to simulate temporal and spatial variations of suspended sediment and was applied to the subtropical subalpine Tsuei-Feng Lake (TFL) of Taiwan. The model was validated with measured water level and suspended‑sediment concentration in 2009, 2010, and 2011. The overall model simulation results are in quantitative agreement with the observational data. The validated model was then applied to explore the most important parameter that affects the suspended-sediment concentration and to investigate the effect of wind stress on the mean current and suspended‑sediment distribution in this shallow lake. Modeling results of sensitivity analysis reveal that the settling velocity is a crucial parameter and erosion rate is less important in the suspended-sediment transport model. Remarkable lake circulation was found based on the strength of wind speed and wind direction. Strong wind would result in higher mean current in the top layer and suspended-sediment distribution in the top and bottom layers. This study demonstrated that the wind stress played a significant influence on mean circulation and suspended-sediment transport in a shallow lake.