Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from 8 Global Climate Models. The IHACRES Catchment Moisture Deficit (IHACRES-CMD) model, the GR4J and the Sacramento model were chosen for this study. During model evaluation, 10,000 parameter sets have been generated for each model and used in a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Out of the three models, IHACRES-CMD recorded the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.92 and 0.86 for the calibration (1997-2003) and the validation (2004-2010) period respectively. The Sacramento model was able to adequately predict low flow patterns on the catchment while the GR4J and IHACRES-CMD over and under estimate low flow respectively. The use of multiple hydrological models to reduce uncertainties caused by model approaches is recommended along with other methods of sustainable river basin managements.

The results reveal CILSS as the most accurate data set with a Kappa coefficient of 68% and an overall accuracy of 83%. CILSS data shows a decrease of savanna and forest whereas an increase of cropland over the period 1975 to 2013. The increase of cropland area of 30.97% from 1975 to 2013 can be related to the increase in population and their food demand, while the losses of forest area and the decrease of savanna are further amplified by using wood as energy sources and the lack of forest management. The three datasets were used to simulate future LULC changes using the Terrset Land Change Modeler. The validation of the model using CILSS data for 2013 showed a quality of 50.94%, it is only 40.04% for ESA and 20.13% for Globeland30. CILSS data was utilized to simulate the LULC distribution for the years 2020 and 2027 because of its satisfactory performances. The results show that a high spatial resolution is not a guarantee of high quality. The results of this study can be used for impact studies and to develop management strategies for mitigating negative effects of land use and land cover change.