Housing Affordability and Barriers to Homeownership Across Income Groups in Urban Vietnam

Housing affordability is an increasingly consequential dimension of urban development in Viet Nam, yet city-average apartment prices may conceal different barriers to entry. This study combines CBRE condominium price benchmarks for the third quarter of 2025 with official 2024 income-quintile data for Hanoi and pre-merger Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). Standardized 45 and 60 m² dwelling scenarios assess three sequential constraints: purchase-price-to-income multiples, time required to save a down payment, and mortgage repayment relative to income. The analysis separates primary and secondary condominium markets and varies interest rates and household-income assumptions. In the reference 60 m² secondary-market scenario, the purchase-price-to-income ratio is approximately 11.0 in Hanoi and 12.1 in old HCMC; estimated monthly repayments consume approximately 86% and 94% of standardized mean household income, respectively. Primary-market burdens are higher. These are scenario results, not estimates of the share of households excluded from ownership. The findings underscore the importance of distinguishing aggregate condominium supply from income-compatible housing and of considering down-payment liquidity alongside loan repayment capacity.