Green Housing Premiums Through a Housing Downturn: Evidence from Shenzhen, China

Published evidence on green housing premia comes almost entirely from upturns and is uniformly positive (6.9% is the most cited figure). We calibrate Shenzhen’s 2015–2024 premia with the district price panel of the Shenzhen Statistical Yearbook 2025, green building records from the Shenzhen Open Data Platform and two peer-reviewed anchors. Second-hand transactions fell 77.2% in 2020–2022 and prices gave back 12%–21%. Anchored at +6.9% [1] and −11.94% [2], the premium loses 18.84 log points (about 17.2 percentage points) and flips sign; the calibrated path peaks near +18 log points in 2021 and reaches −16 to −20 log points in 2023–2024. Break-even growth is 5.5%; within a meta-regression covering eight studies, the five green-label observations give a lower but same-signed slope of 0.70 and a threshold of 7.8%. Green supply offers no significant price support once initial price is controlled (t = 0.54). The premium is pro-cyclical liquidity, not a durable asset attribute; transaction data being unavailable, the anchors give direction and magnitude only.