Future Landscape Transformation and Implications for Food-Production Potential in a Small Island Developing State: Evidence from Bobonaro, Timor-Leste

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face natural resource management challenges distinct from those of mainland nations. For example, land constraints necessitate a balance between ecosystem sustainability and food production. Therefore, this study aimed to identify optimal land-use patterns to balance competing interests, using the Bobonaro Municipality in Timor-Leste as a case. The methodology comprised Senti-nel-2 image interpretation, Random Forest classification, analysis of drivers of change, and CA-Markov projection modeling. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) mapping was conducted for 2016, 2020, and 2024, with projections extending to 2032 and 2040 under four scenarios. These include Business as Usual (BAU), Forest Protection (FP), Agri-cultural Development (AD), along with Forest Protection and Agricultural Develop-ment (FPAD). The results showed that classification achieved an accuracy exceeding 89% and a Kappa coefficient greater than 0.87. Between 2016 and 2024, forests experi-enced the greatest decline, while savanna areas expanded significantly. Population, distance to roads, and elevation were found to be more strongly associated with LULC changes than rainfall or slope gradient. The scenarios show a trade-off between forest conservation and agricultural land availability. The FPAD scenario yielded the most balanced landscape configuration by maintaining forest cover, supporting agricultural land, and limiting savanna expansion.