Spatiotemporal LULC Changes and Future Predictions in the Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia, Using Remote Sensing, GIS, and CA-Markov Modelling

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are increasingly affecting arid regions, where urban growth and environmental variability place pressure on land and natural resources. This study assessed historical and future LULC changes in the Qassim Region, Saudi Arabia, using remote sensing, GIS, and CA-Markov modelling. Sentinel-2 images were used to classify seven LULC classes for 2017, 2021, and 2025, while Landsat 8-derived NDVI was used to support the assessment of vegetation changes. Spatial transition and proximity analyses were also applied to examine the relationships between land transformation, roads, and wadis. Between 2017 and 2025, built-up land increased from 387 to 685 km², while rangeland increased from 1836 to 2610 km². In contrast, bare ground decreased from 1522 to 517 km², and cropland declined by 70.24 km². Urban expansion occurred mainly around existing cities and showed a stronger relationship with roads than with wadis, with expansion density decreasing from 8.3% within 250 m of roads to 3.9% beyond 2 km. NDVI provided additional evidence of vegetation change and supported part of the observed increase in rangeland. A CA-Markov framework was then used and independently evaluated by simulating the 2025 built-up pattern and comparing it with the observed map. The validation produced an overall built/non-built agreement of 96%, with precision of 91.57% and an F1-score of 87.5%. After validation, the model was used to simulate future LULC patterns. Built-up land is projected to increase to approximately 847.4 km² in 2030 and 997 km² in 2035, while cropland and bare ground are expected to decline. The main contribution of this study is the integration of historical LULC transitions, spatial drivers, vegetation change, independent model validation, and future spatial prediction within a single framework. The findings provide spatial information that can support urban growth management, agricultural land protection, and sustainable land-use planning in arid regions.