Population Ageing and the Spatial Mismatch of Pension Security in China: Convergent Demographic Demand and Territorialized Supply

Population ageing is becoming increasingly widespread across regions, yet the capacity to provide adequate pension income remains territorially uneven. This study examines how the spatial distribution of ageing-related pension demand corresponds to the spatial distribution of pension provision in China. Drawing on provincial-level data for 2015 and 2023, the study conceptualizes pension income security as a socio-spatial outcome shaped by the interaction between demographic change, uneven regional development, and the territorial organization of redistribution. It combines Gini coefficients to assess spatial differentiation, Spearman rank correlations to examine demand–supply alignment, and Geographic Detector analysis to identify factors associated with spatial differentiation in pension provision. The results show that ageing-related pension demand has become a broadly distributed demographic condition, while pension provision remains substantially more differentiated across regions, particularly in economic, fiscal, and pension-fund capacity. Demand–supply associations are predominantly negative, indicating that regions facing greater ageing-related pressure often have weaker pension provision capacity. The comparison between the Urban Employee Basic Pension and the Urban and Rural Resident Basic Pension further shows that the spatial organization of redistribution matters: broader pooling and interregional adjustment are associated with a weaker correspondence between local economic conditions and pension outcomes, whereas the more territorially embedded resident pension system remains more closely associated with regional economic and income conditions. These findings highlight spatial mismatch as an important dimension of pension security in ageing societies and demonstrate how demographic pressures, uneven development, and the scale of welfare redistribution jointly shape the geography of social protection.