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Monte Carlo Diagnostics of a Launch Vehicle Guidance Navigation and Control Simulator

Submitted:

23 September 2026

Posted:

24 September 2026

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Abstract
A computational launch vehicle guidance, navigation, and control simulator is evaluated through adispersed campaign of 1,000 runs. Thee model combines six-degree-of-freedom dynamics, inertial navigation,simulated GPS and barometric aiding, and thrust-vector attiitude control. A 0.01 s integration step and a 600s maximum duration were used. All runs produced numerical impacts, but 100 remained below 100 mapogee. Median apogee was 84.98 km and mean apogee was 76.28 km, revealing a distinct low-altitudepopulation. A standardized linear surrogate identifieed thrust misalignment as the dominant predictor ofimpact displacement within the confiegured dispersion ranges. Mean per-run normalized estimation errorsquared was 12.21 for the six-state position and velocity subspace; normalized GPS and barometerinnovation statistics averaged 0.73 and 0.97. Epoch-wise diagnostics revealed systematic departuresobscured by campaign averages. Theese results demonstrate how trajectory summaries, covariance checks,and sensitivity screening identify diffeerent limitations of a coupled GNC implementation. Atmosphericsimplifiecations, incomplete variable-mass rotational modeling, and absent independent trajectory validationrestrict physical interpretation. Thee fiendings provide specifiec targets for model verifiecation, estimatorcalibration, and investigation of early impacts.
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