Recovery in Volume, Not in Structure? Post-Pandemic Seasonal Concentration of Tourism Demand and Operating Capacity in Romania

Tourism seasonality affects destination sustainability by concentrating demand into a short period and leaving accommodation capacity underused off-season. This study examines whether Romanian tourism reverted to its pre-pandemic seasonal pattern once volumes recovered, comparing 2019 with 2025 using monthly data (INS TEMPO-Online) on arrivals, overnight stays, and net occupancy, from which operating capacity is derived. Seasonal concentration is measured with the Gini index and three complementary measures, nationally, for exhaustive partitions by visitor origin and accommodation category, and for four destination case studies. Arrivals exceeded the 2019 level by 4.89%, overnight stays returned to it, and the average length of stay fell by 5.25%; operating capacity rose by 14.03%, and net occupancy fell in every month, from 34.15% to 29.76%. The national Gini index of arrivals rose by only 1.20%; counterfactual reweighting shows that the flattening of the non-resident profile offset most of the rise for residents, and that the shift of arrivals toward 4–5-star establishments offset about half of the increase by accommodation category. Operating capacity, non-resident arrivals, and the seaside case studies moved outside the range of 12-month rolling windows on all three measures. The analysis is descriptive; national aggregates understate the redistribution it documents.