A Science-Based Framework for Sustainable Urban Planning in Mid-Sized Cities. Case Study: Fălticeni Municipality in Northeastern Romania

1. Introduction

In an increasingly evident context of accelerating climate change and global socio-economic shifts, sustainable spatial planning and management have become some of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century [1]. While scientific studies and public attention are most often concentrated on major metropolitan areas, medium-sized cities play a significant role within national and regional territorial systems due to their importance in sustaining urban capability and position as regional transit nodes or hubs [2].

In Romania, and specifically in the north-eastern region, mid-sized cities have faced a series of complex pressures throughout the past three decades, including: the post-communist economic and social restructuring, ensued by the subsequent large scale migration of the working population; the abrupt demographic transition to lower birth rates and increasing mortality; and the uncontrolled, rather fragmented, expansion of the urban habitat [3]. These phenomena, alongside additional processes occurring within the urban system, exerted substantial pressure on the social fabric of cities, as well as on the infrastructure and the natural environment, often insufficiently managed by urban planners and administrators [4]. In this regard, Fălticeni municipality, located in the south-eastern part of Suceava county, stands out as a relevant case study for the lower tier of mid-sized cities in Romania, whose recent evolution has reflected both the vulnerabilities and the opportunities for development specific in such urban areas.

Current trends in sustainable urban planning demonstrate a net transition from traditional approaches, often rigid and purely economic in nature, toward more integrated models grounded in scientific evidence, stakeholder consultation and interdisciplinary expertise [5]. Contemporary spatial and urban planning increasingly promote innovative solutions such as nature-based approaches for reducing natural hazards, not only through parks and green areas, but also through green-blue infrastructure networks, biophilic or climate-adaptive urban design, the redevelopment of obsolete urban functional areas, the use of GIS technologies for predictive territorial modelling etc. This novel paradigm focuses on building resilience, aligning with the principles of circular economy, increasing decentralization, mitigation of natural hazards, and the effective use of land resources in order to maximize the territorial potential of urban settlements. These principles aim to transform cities from mere resource consumers and waste generators into stable, functional and self-sustaining ecosystems.

In this context, the primary objective of our research is to develop and test a methodological framework designed to identify sustainable urban planning solutions, particularly considering the current and anticipated challenges generated by climate shifts, while rigorously complying with legislative requirements, and taking into account the structural and functional particularities of medium-sized cities. To this purpose, the study (i) evaluates the spatial, economic, and environmental dynamics of Fălticeni municipality throughout the last four decades; (ii) examines the structural footprint of natural and anthropogenic factors; (iii) identifies the main urban dysfunctions; and (iv) formulates forecasts based on results yielded by this analysis, further proposing strategic solutions and recommendations for sustainable urban planning.

Through its findings, this research seeks to make a significant contribution on two major levels. Firstly, it aims to support the advancement of science-based urban/spatial planning in Romania by providing a strong conceptual and methodological framework readily replicable for other medium-sized administrative units facing a strong need for evidence-based management. Secondly, this study aspires to make a contribution to improving the quality of life and the environment for local communities, by optimizing urban functionality and maintaining the integrity of both natural and anthropogenic ecosystems in the long term. Ultimately, our research demonstrates that ecological balance and socio-economic development ought to be jointly pursued within the planning processes of the cities of the future.

2. Study Area

The study area comprises the administrative territory of Fălticeni municipality, located in the northern sector of Fălticeni Plateau, a subunit of Suceava Plateau, at 47°27′35″N and 26°18′0″E. The city extends across both banks of Șomuzul Mare River, the main watercourse draining this part of the plateau, and is situated approx. 30 km south of the county administrative centre (Suceava). The municipality is traversed by National Road 2 (DN2), also known as E85 (European Road 85), oriented along the north-south axis of the urban area (Figure 1).

Considering the lithological structure which determines the relief configuration of the study area, along with additional factors (including the climate, drainage network, hydrogeology, vegetation and anthropogenic interventions), the study area possesses favourable conditions for the initiation and evolution of multiple geomorphic processes, including landslides, linear (gully) erosion and surface erosion. These processes exert considerable pressure on the landscapes, while urban sprawl and human activities further accentuate their dynamics and impacts on the habitat. Therefore, the study area provides an appropriate setting for examining these phenomena in relation to sustainable urban planning, aiming to produce a relevant contribution to science-based urban management in Romania.

2.1. Geology

As regards the geological substrate, the study area overlaps a sector of the Moldavian Platform, a consolidated unit of Proterozoic age, further uplifted and compacted during the Alpine geotectonic cycle. The platform foundation comprises metamorphic rocks, particularly crystalline formations such as granitoid gneisses, which are intruded by pegmatite dikes, granites or mafic rocks [6]. The sedimentary cover consists of Sarmatian deposits dominated by clastic sediments, with surface deposits pertaining mainly to the Volhynian stage, which includes sands with intercalations of sandstone, gravels and marls, reaching thicknesses of 40-50 meters. Below these superficial formations lies a sequence of clayey-marly strata with occasional sandy intercalations. Along the local valleys (e.g. Șomuzul Mare, Pârâul Târgului, Prisaca etc.), Holocene alluvial-colluvial deposits have accumulated within the floodplains, while terraces and interfluvial areas may be covered by relatively thin eluvial and colluvial loess deposits. Geological surveys conducted in the perimeter of the urban development areas indicated a stratigraphic succession dominated by sands and clays, accompanied by silts and marls, along with loess formations [7].

2.2. Geomorphological Traits

The landforms of the study area pertain mainly to the structural relief typical for this plateau region of NE Romania, with average altitudes ranging between 300 and 400 m asl. The hilly morphology is shaped on sandy-clayey deposits with a monoclinal disposition along a NW-SE direction, which stands out as a major feature of the Moldavian Plateau. The geomorphological landscape is dominated by a succession of cuestas consisting of steeper-sloped escarpments contrasting with gentler dip slopes, including the Glimeii Hill (382 m asl), Cornești Hill (398 m asl) and Spătărești Hill (415 m asl), continuing eastward onto the flanks of Țarna Mare and Holmu (405 m asl) hills beyond the resequent valley of Șomuzul Mare River [8], which introduces a morpho-structural broadening between the former and the latter group (Figure 2).

The secondary drainage network includes several streams (i.e. Rădășeni, Pârâul Târgului, Eftimie and Prisaca valleys), typically with subsequent valleys, which have dissected the slopes, thus generating deeply incised sectors and topographic hiatuses interfering with the expansion of the built-up area.

From a dynamic perspective, the degradational (sculptural) landforms are subordinate to the structural and lithological control - exerted by the substrate composed of a sandy-clayey-marly complex - which facilitates the triggering of active geomorphological processes. Therefore, on slopes utilized predominantly as pastures, with superficial aquifers and slope gradients often exceeding 15°, undergoing excessive grazing, the terrain is frequently affected by landsliding, linear erosion and/or surface erosion, as is the case with several perimeters on Cornești, Țarna Mare, La Răscruce, Buciumeni, Holmu and Spătărești hills (Figure 3). More recent landslides, prevalent within the catchments of Spătărești and Buciumeni streams, feature a hummocky (wavy) morphology [9] and are reactivated periodically due to the emergence of hillside springs, thus requiring stringent land management and stabilization measures.

2.3. Climate and Recent Climatic Shifts

The climatic profile of the study area exhibits the characteristics of a temperate-continental climate, structurally marked by clear signals of contemporary climate change. During the 1970-2025 reference interval, the local thermal regime was defined by a mean annual temperature of 8.25°C, with average values typically ranging between 7°C and 9°C (Figure 4a). The pluvial annual total averages at 594.3 mm during the same interval, with mean annual values fluctuating between 450-750 mm (Figure 4b), while the torrential rainfall threshold is at 34.65 mm in 24 hours. The atmospheric circulation is predominantly channelled along a NW-SE direction, with an average wind speed of 3.5 m/s, although occasionally it can increase significantly in intensity reaching peak speeds of up to 25 m/s. The solar radiation input is stable, at an average of 146.15 W/m2.

As regards the climate shifts projected for the 2025-2100 period, the statistical extrapolation of data generated via the optimistic RCP 4.5 predictability scenario (i.e. the moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario simulating an extra 4.5 W/m2 of trapped solar energy compared to pre-industrial levels) reveals a pronounced increase in the mean annual temperature, which will evolve toward a critical value of 11°C by the end of the century, whereas the mean precipitation amount could reach values between 650-700 mm throughout the same interval [10]. These predictions suggest a significant shift in established climate patterns, likely anticipating an exacerbation of geomorphological and hydrological hazards in Fălticeni municipality in the following decades.

2.4. Drainage Network and Hydrogeology

The study area is located withing the drainage basin of Șomuzul Mare River, a direct tributary of Siret River. The drainage network evolved to a relatively high density as a result of sufficient pluvial input (corresponding to an average total annual precipitation of nearly 600 mm) and groundwater supply from abundant stratiform aquifers. The water body collecting the streamflow of the local network is Șomuzul Mare, whose valley takes on a general NW-SE direction within the perimeter of Fălticeni municipality, separating the main urban body from Țarna Mare neighbourhood (component locality) along a distance of approximately 4.5 km. Within the urban perimeter and the adjacent area, Șomuzul Mare collects several streams as right-bank tributaries (Rădășeni, Pârâul Târgului, Eftimie), whereas from the left slope it receives the Prisaca stream. In the river sector pertaining to the city, the course of Șomuzul Mare has undergone hydro-technical management works through the construction of two reservoirs, with a total lacustrine surface area of 150 ha, which address specific economic objectives (fish farming) and serve as protection against flood-induced risks. Upon entering the reservoirs, Șomuzul Mare has a mean discharge of 1.2 m3/s, while following the reception of the local tributaries, the mean streamflow increases to 1.43 m3/s [11].

Groundwaters are stored within Sarmatian deposits and are distributed across two levels, of which the upper lever is perched on an impermeable clayey-marly stratum located at an altitude of 345 m asl in the central city area [12]. Several local streams which serve as right-bank tributaries of Șomuzul Mare originate in this aquifer, which also constitutes the main groundwater horizon intercepted by wells and water intakes from the central part of the city. Moreover, the frequent emergence of the aquifer at altitudes between 340-355 m asl has contributed to landslide triggering on cuesta slopes, as is the case with the northern and eastern slopes of Cornești Hill, the western and southwestern slopes of Țarna Mare Hill or the north-facing slope of Spătărești Hill.

2.5. Soil Cover

Soil surveys conducted by the County Office for Pedological Studies (O.C.O.T. Suceava) in 1978 were carried out exclusively within the non built-up area of Fălticeni municipality. The analysis established the dominance of the luvisols class, represented mainly by luvosols (accounting for 34% of the surveyed area) and preluvosols (18%), which are distributed across plateaus and gentle summits and slopes with gradients around 5° (Tâmpești, Țarna Mare, Oprișeni), where the terrain morphology and forest paleovegetation supported deep water infiltration. Phaeozems (pertaining the chernisols class) have also evolved on dip slopes and low inclination hillsides with good drainage and herbaceous vegetation. By contrast, in the lower area of the Șomuzul Mare floodplain, poor hydrodinamics and the superficial position of the water table have resulted in the formation of hydrisols (typical and chernic gleyosols), whereas coluvic aluviosols pertaining to the protisols class have evolved along the secondary valleys of Prisaca, Spătărești and Pârâul Târgului streams. Current geomorphological processes also leave a lasting mark on the soil cover of the study area as a result of slope process activity (i.e. landsliding, gully erosion and severe surface erosion) affecting significant perimeters on the slopes of Spătărești, Tâmpești, Țarna Mare and Holmu hills, where complexes of erodosols (or erodic anthrosols, according to the taxonomy introduced by SRTS 2012) and association with other types of degraded terrains have evolved as a result.

Whereas the soil assemblage of the non built-up area has remained largely undisturbed by anthropogenic impacts, the natural pedological structure of the built-up sectors has been profoundly disrupted as a results of large-scale excavations, mixing, levelling and construction works, resulting in the formation of anthrosols and urban technosols. Remnants of the initial soil profiles are likely preserved within residential green spaces, public gardens and parks. However, urban soils tend to show a high degree of compaction and considerable inputs of exogenous materials, such as heavy metals (Cu, Fe, Cd, Pb, Zn, As, Cr) originating from various pollution sources [13].

2.6. Vegetation

The vegetation cover of the study area has predictably undergone permanent alterations in terms of composition and extent, concurrent with the expansion and progressive development of the human habitat, and the diversifying anthropogenic activities with significant impact on natural environments. The zonal vegetation pertains to the deciduous forest altitudinal zone, specifically the oak forest sub-belt [6], corresponding to an elevation of up to approximately 400 m asl, typically characterized by the massive presence of peduculate oak (Quercus robur), frequently associated with Quercus petraea, Carpinus betulus, Tilia cordata, Fraxinus excelsior, Acer platanoides, Cerasus avium, Ulmus foliacea, Tilia tomentosa etc. The forests of this sub-belt are luminous, allowing the development of common shrub species such as hazelnut, common dogwood, wayfaring tree, wild privet etc. Currently, these zonal forest associations cover a very small part of the study area, as they have been progressively removed in order to facilitate the expansion of the urban habitat and agricultural lands.

The pastures resulting from the clearance of forest ecosystems are predominantly composed of meso-xerophilous associations of Festuca sulcata, Poa pratensis and Lolium perenne, whereas xero-mesophilous formations of Botriochloa ischaemum, Festuca pseudovina and Poa bulbosa tend to occupy sun-exposed slopes degraded by erosion or overgrazing. Along the Șomuzul Mare valley and in the vicinity of the reservoirs, but also on certain tributary valleys, the vegetation is dominated by hygrophilous plants, including Carex sp., Scirpus sp., Bolboschoenus sp., Typha sp., Juncus effusus, Equisetum palustre, Alisma plantago-aquatica, Sagittaria sagittifolia, Iris pseudacorus etc., while various species of hydrophilous plants are vegetating on the water surface of Fălticeni 1 and 2 reservoirs, such as duckweed, pondweed, frogbit, hornwort and algae [6].

2.7. Population Dynamics and Economic Profile

The demographic and economic evolution of Fălticeni municipality in the past decades highlights a profound structural paradox, characteristic of the post-communist transition. The resident population recorded a sustained growth during the second half of the 20th century, reaching a historical peak of approximately 34,000 inhabitants in 2000 (Figure 5), subsequent to which a steady decline began, decreasing to nearly 29,000 citizens in 2025 [14].

This downward shift in the population volume reflects the contraction of the labour market driven by the massive de-industrialization post-1990, with the average number of employees collapsing dramatically from nearly 20,000 in the 1980s to a critical low of under 5,000 in 2010 (Figure 6), and stabilizing at around 6,000 employees in 2024 (INS Romania).

Paradoxically, despite the evident shrinkage of the demographic base and the steep drop in the workforce, the spatial footprint of the city has expanded significantly through urban sprawl, as the built-up area has doubled from 340 ha in 1985 to 715 ha in 2025, extending on agricultural lands and causing a substantial reduction of intensive orchards of more than 100 ha in the last decades, thereby shaping a predominantly residential and tertiary local functional profile.

3. Materials and Methods

In the first part of the study, we aim to capture the evolution of land use in Fălticeni municipality over the past four decades across three temporal milestones: 1985 (during the communist period), 2006 (prior to the accession of the country to the European Union), and 2025 (the contemporary situation, nearly 20 years after Romania became an EU member). To represent these time periods, we utilized topographic maps (1:5,000 scale) published in 1985 and cadastral plans, ortophotos generated and made available by ANCPI (National Agency for Cadastre and Land Registration) for the year 2006, and satellite imagery to document the current situation (2025). These data sources were processed in ArcGIS Pro 3.7 to create polygons for each of the 14-15 land use categories. The analysis of land use / land cover changes relied on generating Excel charts and tables to synthesize the outputs of spatial data produced in ArcGIS Pro 3.7.

In the second part of the study we constructed a geomorphological hazard susceptibility map, in line with the current Romanian legislation guiding the elaboration of risk maps in spatial planning documentation (Government Decision / HG nr. 447/2003). This method can be applied using raster data for all analysed parameters [15]; however, we opted to work with vector data, classifying the territory of Fălticeni municipality into 38 distinct areas based on landform disposition and unitary morphology (i.e. plateaus, escarpments, dip slopes, terraces, glacis, floodplains etc.). The subsequent step was to assign specific risk coefficients expressed as decimal values between 0 and 1 to all the delineated areas, corresponding to eight criteria: lithological (Klitho), geomorphological (Kgeomorpho), structural (Kstruct), hydro-climatic (Khydroclim), hydrogeological (Khydrogeo), seismic (Kseismic), silvicultural (forest cover extent: Kforest) and anthropogenic (Kanthropic) (Equation 1).

(1)

Subsequently, by applying the calculation formula for the total risk coefficient (Krisk), coefficient values were yielded for each of the 38 sectors of the study area. Following the determination of the coefficients for all the partitioned areas, the risk classes are established according to the legislative guidelines: 0 – no risk, below 0.10 – low risk, between 0.10-0.30 – medium risk, 0.30-0.50 – medium-high risk, 0.50-0.80 – high risk, above 0.80 – very high risk. As a general rule, the closer the value of the risk coefficient is to 0, the lower the susceptibility of the area to hazardous geomorphological processes, with the risk progressively increasing as the value approaches 1.

In the final section of this work, relying on the results generated by the land use change analysis and the geomorphological risk assessment, we elaborated evidence-based spatial planning and lang management solutions for Fălticeni municipality, taking into account the various urban planning challenges facing the study area: the deficit of urban forests, the brownfield redevelopment of derelict industrial zones, the geomorphological risks interfering with the development of road infrastructure, and the need for identifying safe areas for the expansion of the built-up perimeter.

4. Results

4.1. Analysis of Land Use Changes in Fălticeni Municipality Throughout the Last 40 Years (1985, 2006, 2025)

The analysis of land use dynamics in the study area over the past four decades is essential for demonstrating how macro-political and economic shifts contribute to the physical and functional reconfiguration of a medium-sized city such as Fălticeni. By comparing the land use structure in 1985 (when urban systematization, forced industrialization and state-run economy were the norm) with 2006 (after more than a decade marked by post-socialist transition, abrupt de-industrialization, restitution of private ownership and property fragmentation), this research provides an in-depth understanding of the mutations undergone by mid-size urban areas in Romania following the downfall of the communist regime and the conversion to free market economy [16]. Moreover, integrating the 2025 perspective in the analysis contributes to highlighting the recent evolution of Fălticeni municipality, marked by urban sprawl, the brownfield redevelopment of abandoned sites and pressure from the real estate market, despite the significant decrease in resident population, available workforce and number of employees. Consequently, the investigation of the land use dynamic across the three distinct periods (Figure 7, Figure 8 and Figure 9; Table 1) can be utilized as an effective planning tool for analysing the current city configuration and functionality, for understanding the underlying mechanisms of recent changes, and for providing essential data for sustainable development in the future.

Between 1985 and 2006, the total built-up area category has undergone the most significant evolution among all land use classes, including all types of urban structures, such as residential buildings (mainly familial), industrial facilities, urban parks, special-purpose structures etc. The consistent urban expansion has occurred despite the decline in total population volume since 2000 as a result of outmigration and negative population growth rates, and the dramatic drop in the number of employees (by nearly 75% between 1991 and 2006). The most dynamic areas of urban sprawl are, predictably, the peripheral neighbourhoods: Oprișeni, Buciumeni and Tâmpești, as well the component villages Șoldănești and particularly Țarna Mare, which has been developed into a commuter settlement. In the latter case, this evolution has been driven in part by its relative separation from the rest of Fălticeni urban area by the valley of Șomuzul Mare and two reservoirs. In 1985, the built-up land accounted for 11.79% of the total administrative area of the municipality, amounting to approx. 340 ha, concentrated primarily in the central area (consisting of the Centru, Republicii and Maior Ioan residential neighbourhoods) and the Șoldănești industrial zone, and extending outward in a general tentacular shape along transportation axes (Oprișeni, Buciumeni and Tâmpești neighbourhoods, and Șoldănești component settlement), with smaller enclaves of built-up land interspersed with the agricultural fields of Țarna Mare (Figure 7; Table 1). Over the course of the following two decades, by 2006, the built-up area had increased by more than 50% compared to 1985, gaining an additional 180 ha up to a total of 523 ha (18.13% of the administrative area of the municipality). Visible urban growth was documented particularly in Oprișeni and Buciumeni neighbourhoods, as well as in the two separate component villages, Șoldănești and Țarna Mare, where extensive orchards and arable land were progressively converted into built-up areas (Figure 8; Table 1).

Comparatively, in 2025 the built-up land reached 715 ha (marking a 37% increase from the previous extension), accounting for almost 25% of the total administrative urban perimeter (Figure 9; Table 1). During the last two decades Oprișeni and Buciumeni neighbourhoods transitioned to full-fledged residential areas, where the built-up area expanded to include nearly all lands previously covered by extensive orchards in these sectors of city. Furthermore, Șoldănești village reached peak development in its central area and has been extending eastward along the DJ 208 road, and toward the valley of Pârâul lui Eftimie stream, on the dip slope of Șoldănești Hill, whereas Țarna Mare evolved into a commuter village, displaying a compact dynamic along the transportation routes that formerly served the local agricultural lands. In turn, the industrial perimeters were mostly decommissioned as a result of the economic bankruptcy or downsizing of the industrial giants operating on these platforms during the transition period, and are currently the only stagnating built-up areas, thus creating significant planning challenges as derelict, unused sites occupying expensive parts of the peri-central city area. However, their persistence in the urban tissue also carries possibilities for conversion into functional urban zones which could provide considerable opportunities for the local community.

Between 1985 and 2006, the main administrative and economic shift affecting arable lands was the transition from the management of large-scale, state-owned organizations to private owners, resulting in the fragmentation of plots [17]. The changes in the property regime are also reflected in the extension of areas occupied by arable land, which increased from 815 ha in 1985 to nearly 950 ha in 2006 (accounting for nearly 33% of the total administrative area of the city; Table 1), typically by replacing pastures on gentle dip slopes with inclinations of up to 10-15°. This tendency has been observed throughout the Moldavian region, where owners converted pastures into arable plots due to the deficit of land suitable for cultivation [18]. Additionally, certain privately-owned extensive orchards were converted into arable land in the Oprișeni neighborhood. Large portions of the arable land were located on the southwestern slope of Holmu Hill near Țarna Mare village, on the escarpment of Cornești Hill, on the dip slope of Glimeii Hill in Tâmpești neighbourhood, and on the right bank of Pârâul lui Eftimie stream. The terrains converted to arable lands are located on slopes with varying gradients and are divided into plots with perpendicular disposition to the contour lines, a practice which heavily contributes to enhancing erosion processes.

However, the trend was reversed in the following two decades, leading to a significant decrease of the total arable land by 2025 compared to 2006, falling below the 1985 baseline (Table 1). Currently, arable plots account for 27.38% of the study area (790 ha, from 950 ha in 2006), while maintaining the top position in the land use structure of the urban administrative territory. The largest proportion of the loss in arable land is attributed to urban sprawl and real estate projects carried out in the last two decades, and in some instances to the establishment of extensive orchards by the new residents of Țarna Mare village.

Pastures have undergone the steepest decline among all land use categories, of nearly 40% in the last four decades, from 593 ha in 1985 (20.55% of the total study area) to 400 ha in 2006 (13.89% of the urban area) and 365 ha in 2025 (12.56%). This trend was primarily driven by their conversion into arable plots, although in some instances pasturelands were degraded to a considerable extent due to active geomorphological processes, thus turning them into unproductive land, as observed on the NW slope of Spătărești Hill. Pasture-covered areas require special attention from local authorities, as they can be easily removed from the profitable land circuit by active slope processes, which are further accelerated by predicted meteorological trends (i.e. high torrentiality) and overgrazing. In turn, meadows followed a sinuous evolution, from 101 ha in 1985 to 70 ha in 2006, and ca. 105 ha at present. The most significant perimeter which has transitioned recently to this land use category is a former intensive orchard located adjacent to the DN2/E85 road, at the limit of the city built-up area.

Orchards play a considerable role in the economic history of Fălticeni municipality, with pomicultural plantations expanding in the region since the onset of the 19th century, producing mainly varieties of apples, pears and cherries [19]. This land use class is distributed across the entire study area, but most notably in the SW and N-NE sections of the administrative perimeter of the city. Considering their vast spatial extent and varying composition, management and ownership, as well as the types of landscapes they create, we opted to divide local orchards into two categories: intensive orchards (formerly managed by S.E.P. Fălticeni in 1985, S.C.P.P. Fălticeni in 2006, and S.C.D.P. Fălticeni alongside various private operators by 2025), and traditional or extensive orchards, which include small orchards interspersed with built-up plots owned by the inhabitants. The total area of orchards has gradually decreased over the 40-year interval, from 679 ha in 1985 (of which 447.62 ha intensive orchards and 201.46 ha traditional orchards) accounting for 23.53% of the study area, to approx. 555 ha (410.76 ha intensive orchards and 144.06 ha traditional orchards) in 2006, and 496 ha (374 ha intensive orchards and 122 ha extensive orchards) in 2025, marking a total decline of nearly 27% (Table 1). While in the case of intensive orchards the main driver was post-1990 land restitution, extensive orchards were in some instances converted into arable lands or meadows, but the vast majority of the loss in traditional orchard area was due to urban sprawl and increase in building density, as observed most notably in Oprișeni and Buciumeni neighborhoods or Șoldănești village. Conversely, in Țarna Mare a rise in small-scale, private orchards for self-consumption was noted following the residential development of the village, particularly on strips of former arable land. As regards intensive orchards, the current diminishing trend affecting them is further enhanced by abandonment and active geomorphological processes, as large portions of these plantations are located on slopes with gradients exceeding 10° [20]. In fact, the majority of the intensive orchard perimeters were established in the 1960-1970 decades as an attempt to manage sustainably and limit de degradation of terrains on the slopes of local cuestas, which had been historically affected by mild to severe erosion and large-scale landsliding. As intensive orchards were destructured and abandoned on ample areas after 1990, their protective role in terms of erosion and landslide control was highly diminished, leading to an intensification of contemporary active slope processes.

Terrains covered by woody-shrub vegetation, designated as shrublands in our analysis, account for a small percentage of the total administrative perimeter of the municipality, covering just 1.66% at present. Between 1985 and 2006 the shrubland area increased from 29.72 ha to 52.09 ha, as some agricultural plots were abandoned, thus transitioning to a spontaneous vegetation cover including mainly shrubs, grasses and occasionally trees. In the study area shrublands are found in Buciumeni neighbourhood and on the upper course of Pârâul Târgului stream. In 2025 the area occupied by shrubbery and wood vegetation has mildly decreased at 48 ha, a significant portion of which extends in the proximity of the “Nada Florilor” Stadium and the “Malul Șomuzului” park.

As regards the major elements of infrastructure of this territory, the road network totalled 105.5 ha in 1985, accounting for 3.66% of the administrative area of Fălticeni municipality, consisting to a large extent of a rectangular tissue of urban streets in the central area of the city, which transitioned to an irregular, more tentacular-shaped network in the outer residential neighbourhoods toward the peripheral zones of the built-up area. Agricultural plots and orchards were served by dedicated service roads, as was the case with the lands pertaining to Țarna Mare and Șoldănești villages and Buciumeni neighbourhood. Outside the urban center, the main axes are DN2/E85 (Suceava - Roman) and the DN2E (Fălticeni - Gura Humorului) national roads, as well as the DJ209H (Fălticeni - Baia) and DJ208 (Fălticeni - Dolhasca) county roads. In 2006 the total area covered by the road network had increased by 6.58 ha, with much of this growth representing new public access roads to newly developed residential areas (e.g., Lizuca Alley in Buciumeni neighbourhood), as well as several easement roads, particularly in the Oprișeni neighbourhood, while farm roads maintained approximately the same configuration as in the 1980s. In 2025 the road network has reached a total 116.44 ha (4% of the study area), with an increase of ca. 4.36 ha, driven mainly by the construction of access roads to new residential properties across the most dynamic sectors of the municipality: Țarna Mare and Șoldănești villages, and Buciumeni and Oprișeni neighbourhoods. Prospectively, a significant addition to the road infrastructure would be brought by the recently designed bypass road, which starts in the southwest of the urban area from DN2E, crosses the western part of the administrative area of the city and connects to DN2/E85 to the north, just outside of the built-up limit. This major infrastructure project could require approx. 12 ha of land, crossing numerous arable plots and pasturelands along its proposed route.

While roads serve as a connective tissue, the railway infrastructure acts to some extent as an internal barrier in the urban landscape of Fălticeni municipality, extending as a parallel zone to Șomuzul Mare valley. Overall, a significant atrophy of the railway functional zone was observed over the last four decades, mainly as a direct result of the decline in the industrial activity of Șoldănești platform after 1990 (which led to the decommissioning of the rail tracks serving the former large-scale wood processing, chemical and food processing plants). Moreover, as passenger interest for rail travel decreased, in part due to the lack of modernization of the infrastructure, the 510 Dolhasca - Fălticeni line was closed in 2015, and the Fălticeni Railway Station was decommissioned. Therefore, between 1985 and 2006 the area of the railway network dropped to half, from 21.21 ha to 10.28 ha, while over the next 20 years the extension of this zone decreased further to 8.68 ha, accounting for just 0.30% of the study area.

Of the elements pertaining to the natural landscape, rivers and streams have undergone insignificant changes over the course of the last four decades, covering a total area which fluctuated between 5.40-5.50 hectares, which corresponds to 0.19% of the administrative urban territory. Furthermore, still water bodies are represented by two reservoirs (Fălticeni 1 and Fălticeni 2) constructed along Șomuzul Mare valley, currently designated as national “Natura 2000” sites under code ROSCI0310, which strictly regulates the anthropogenic activities and processes permitted within the sites and their immediate proximity. During the last 40 years, the lacustrine surface increased just slightly, from 150.45 ha to 153.75 ha, as a result of the rising water level in the first reservoir which led to flooding of the reed beds in its northwestern section. In turn, wetlands (included basins and reed beds) diminished in terms of cumulative area from 31.77 ha in 1985 to 25.73 ha at present.

Unproductive lands covered 9.82 ha in 1985 and consisted predominantly of small-scale landslides in the area of Spătărești Hill. However, after 1990 this land use category expanded to more than 50 ha until 2025, including the former municipal landfill located in the SE part of the administrative territory, but also the increasing portions of terrain affected by active geomorphological processes (landsliding), particularly on the N and NW slopes of Spătărești Hill (Figure 9).

4.2. Assessment of Geomorphological Risks in Fălticeni Municipality

In accordance with the methodology detailed in the previous section, we partitioned the administrative area of Fălticeni municipality into 38 zones based on landform disposition and homogenous morphology, further assigning specific risk coefficients to each delineated zone, expressed as decimal values between 0 and 1 for each criterion, as shown in Table 2.

For the lithological factor (L), we assigned a value of 0.85 to each zone overlaying the marly-clayey-sandy complex prevalent in the study area, while the 0.6 value was attributed to alluvial plains of the main river valleys, consisting of gravel, cobble and sand deposits. The geomorphological component (G) was evaluated by analysing the mean slope gradients for each delimited zone, with coefficient ranging between 0.1 and 0.9. From a structural perspective (STR), the substrate of the study area consists of gently dipping strata of sedimentary rocks, therefore we opted to assign a 0.25 coefficient to each delineated zone. A rating of 0.3 was attributed to the Hydroclimatic factor (HC), as the climate of Fălticeni Plateau is characterized by moderate amounts of precipitation, totalling nearly 600 mm per year [10], and the drainage network can be affected by low-magnitude local floods. The hydrogeological (HG) ratings were established based on the depth of the water table, with specific risk coefficients decreasing as the partitioned zones are situated farther away from the floodplains, and the depth of the subsurface water increases. Although earthquakes (S) can play a significant role in triggering landslides, we assigned a relatively low coefficient of 0.25 to all zones, considering the moderate seismic risk determined for the area of Fălticeni municipality (seismic intensity zone MSK = 6). As regards the forest cover factor (F), considering the negligible occurrence of wood vegetation in the study area, we took into account the presence of pomicultural plantations on hillslopes, assigning ratings based on the percentage of coverage provided by such canopies. Finally, for the anthropogenic factor (A), we attributed specific risk coefficients taking into account the density of existing buildings which can overload the slopes with heavy man-made structures, the presence of water supply and sewage networks that can potentially release significant amounts of water into the subsoil in the event of a technical failure, and the layout of the road network, which, depending on the traffic volume, can generate vibrations capable of triggering landslide processes.

The analysis yielded 38 distinct risk areas (Figure 10), of which 10 rank as high risk for the triggering or evolution of geomorphological processes, occupying a total area of 772 ha, typically on high to moderate gradient escarpment slopes. Nearly 27% of the terrains with high probability for the manifestation of active slope processes are located within the built-up area, covering an area of approx. 265 ha (Table 3). Fur-thermore, the 18 medium-high risk zones account for more than half of the urban ad-ministrative territory (51.26%), covering a total of 1479 ha, of which 802 ha in the pe-rimeter of the built-up area. Terrains with medium probability for the occurrence of geomorphological processes occupy 635 ha (of which 218 ha in the built-up sector), distributed mainly on gently sloping interfluves, plateaus and floodplains of the main drainage network, where risk processes include soil compaction and low-grade surface erosion.

As regards the zones with significant geomorphological risk determined using this approach, the vast majority overlie cuesta escarpment slopes or terrace fronts with mean gradients of 10-15° and prevalent northern orientation. In these cases, terrain morphology corroborated with reduced evapotranspiration, the deficit of forest cover, excessive grazing, the occurrence of numerous slope springs, and the impact of diverse anthropogenic factors, greatly increase the vulnerability of these perimeters to the triggering and development of geomorphological processes such as landsliding, linear (gully) erosion and surface erosion. High risk zones are distributed on the N, NW and NE-facing slopes of Cornești Hill, the eastern slopes of Buciumeni Hill and La Răscruce, the northern slope of Spătărești Hill, the N and NW-facing slopes of Șoldănești Hill (where a section of the built-up area of Șoldănești village is located), and the western slope of Holmu Hill within the perimeter of Țarna Mare village.

We are able to validate at least partially the results yielded by this approach based on the empirical comparison with the perimeters of terrains affected by active slope processes delineated by the County Office for Pedological Studies in 1978, but solely for the non-built up areas of the city administrative area (Figure 11).

According to this data, the areas undergoing high-grade geomorphological processes (e.g., severe or moderate erosion, active and semi-active landslides) largely coincide with the high and medium-high risk zones determined in this study (Figure 10), thus confirming the accuracy of the methodology we employed, despite the degree of subjectivity linked to the assessment of specific risk coefficients by each practitioner, which constitutes the main downside of this working method.

5. Discussion

In recent decades, the built-up area of Fălticeni municipality has expanded considerably to include even perimeters susceptible to geomorphological processes, such as the northern slopes of Cornești Hill and Spătărești Hill, where inclination gradients reach values of 15°, while other zones with high risk for destructive slope processes were largely avoided by new construction projects.

Based on the analyses carried out as part of this research, which identified the rate and direction of urban sprawl and the tendencies in land use shifts, as well as the susceptibility of terrains available for urban expansion and development to geomorphological risks, we concluded that Fălticeni municipality has the potential to sustainably extend its built-up area in several zones which are not affected by hazardous phenomena. Our analysis yielded eight zones suitable for the expansion of residential, commercial, industrial or mixed urban areas, distributed across the entire administrative urban territory, covering a total of 113.74 ha (Figure 12, Table 4).

Zones 1 and 2 are located in the southwestern part of the administrative territory of the municipality, adjacent to the DN2E national road to Gura Humorului, the montane sector of Suceava county, and across the Carpathians to western Romania. The direct proximity to this major road, the opportunity provided by the anticipated construction of the newly designed Fălticeni urban bypass, and the reduced distance to the urban centre and other residential areas constitute essential assets for developing industrial and/or commercial zones, confirmed by the recent evolution of this area.

Zone 3 overlies mostly flat terrains suitable for potential residential as well as industrial developments, despite the somewhat isolated position at the limit of the administrative urban territory, close to the DJ208 county road to Dolhasca. In turn, zones 4 and 5 stand out as natural extensions of the current built-up area in the coming decades, driven by the deficit of space within the current city limit. Moving forward, proposed perimeters 6 and 7 are appropriate for the development of commercial zones, while also providing suitable lands for residential functions (individual housing). An additional extension of the built-up area could include zone 8, which would constitute a natural evolution of Țarna Mare village as new residential structures have already emerged within this perimeter in recent years.

Moreover, as shown in the section dedicated to the dynamic of the land use structure in Fălticeni municipality, the urban area has a severe deficit of forested terrains. Urban forests represent not only spots for leisure, but also greatly contribute to regulating temperatures inside cities [21] and purifying urban air by inducing specific atmospheric dynamics (also known as forest breezes). Therefore, considering the necessity for a rapid increasing in the forest area within the administrative territory of the municipality, and the presence of ample perimeters affected by landslides, currently used mainly as pastures, which require effective measures for stabilization, we recommend that these terrains are utilized for new forest plantations. The proposed urban forests would be distributed in four zones in the Buciumeni, Spătărești, Pârâul lui Eftimie and Țarna Mare perimeters (A though D, as seen in Figure 12 and Table 5), adding up to a total area of 191.85 ha. Additionally, such an intervention would contribute to reaching the minimum coefficient of green space allotted per inhabitant (26 m2) mandated by current Romanian legislation (Law 24/2007), without resorting to administrative workarounds such as factoring cemeteries into green space assessments.

Following a study conducted by CABERNET around the year 2000 across several countries, Romania reported a total of 900,000 ha of brownfield sites [22]. From a sustainable planning perspective, perhaps the most pressing challenge facing the administration of Fălticeni municipality consists in the management of former massive industrial zones, which stand out as derelict brownfields, highly repulsive for urban development. These industrial wastelands occupy extensive spaces which remain entirely unutilized and negatively impact surrounding neighbourhoods [23], as transition zones between brownfields and residential areas or other structures are lacking in most cases. In addition, the soil cover of these perimeters has undergone long-term contamination with various chemicals, including heavy metals, such as Cu, Fe, Cd, Pb, Zn, As and Cr [13], generating an environmental risk for adjacent areas, such as residential zones or water bodies [24]. After the 2000s, these former industrial areas were progressively abandoned, and local decision-makers subsequently resorted to the most accessible approach for management, converting significant portions of local brownfields into commercial complexes, similar to other Romanian cities [25]. However, this practice is not advisable in all instances, as it can create a spatial mismatch; instead, the repurposing of derelict industrial zones must instead be designed as an adaptation to the actual needs of community and contemporary economic realities [26].

Based on this principle, in our study area we identified two former industrial platforms covering a total area of approx. 31 ha (Șoldănești and Filatura), for which we proposed functional brownfield redevelopment measures. In the former Filatura industrial zone (designated Zone E in Figure 12 and Table 6), specialized in large-scale textile production before 1990, we opted to recommend the establishment of a residential area consisting of collective housing with a maximum height regime of 4 upper floors + ground floor. The Filatura perimeter is suitable for this type of habitat, considering the demand for affordable collective housing in the urban area, the relative proximity to the city centre and its readily available services, and the high degree of accessibility through Broșteni Street, Țărăncuței Street and Filaturii Street. It is advisable that new residential developments occupy a maximum of 60% of the total area [27] allotted to this zone, to ensure landscape integration, adequate natural lighting and proper ventilation for buildings, while also accommodating the necessary parking infrastructure. Moreover, the design of green spaces within this complex is essential, in order to provide effective bioretention systems and to regulate the local microclimate [28].

In the Șoldănești former industrial perimeter we advise that three distinct functional zones are organized: a commercial area (G - Șoldănești 2), a park (F - Șoldănești 1) and an area dedicated to sports activities (H - Șoldănești 3), as shown in figure 12 and Table 6. The repurposed commercial area (G) largely maintains the existing activities pertaining to a supermarket and a shopping mall, but could provide opportunities for additional sellers within a well-managed commercial functional zone. The absence of a sizeable park specifically designed for leisure and recreational activities [29] resulted in the recommendation to establish a green area within the former industrial zone, on a large plot where the previous structures have been demolished. The park (F) would have a generous spatial footprint of approx. 6.65 ha and peri-central location, and would benefit from a high degree of accessibility, enhancing its public utility [30] and ensuring that citizens from the central area and the Șoldănești village can reach it within a maximum of 20-minute walk. In addition, the proposed park could serve as a transition / acoustic mitigation zone between the adjacent residential area and the current, downsized industrial units (e.g., the wood processing plant). Lastly, we advise that a sports complex zone (H) is designed to incorporate a multi-purpose hall, a swimming pool and various fields for football, tennis, basketball, padel etc. Existing buildings and structures can be preserved, at least in part, and repurposed into climbing courses, skydiving towers and training centres [31], thereby minimizing design and construction time and reducing overall costs [32].

With all proposals aiming to repurpose and provide new functions to local brownfields, great emphasis was placed on preserving and capitalizing on the identity landmarks of the Șoldănești and Filatura former industrial zones (such as chimneys, water towers, access gates or legacy machinery) in order to maintain the cultural memory of the site and to impart a distinct character on the landscape [33].

To the north and northeast of the natural barrier introduced by Șomuzul Mare valley and the two ample reservoirs, Țarna Mare component village has developed considerably in the last three to four decades in terms of built-up area, transitioning into a commuter settlement with very reduced green space amenities. In order to address this necessity, we propose a 1.7 ha park (I - Țarna Mare, according to Figure 12 and Table 6) on the site of a destructured orchard.

As regards the road infrastructure servicing the urban area, a major challenge is represented by the high traffic volume constantly transiting the centre of Fălticeni municipality due to the absence of alternative bypass routes for the major DN2/E85 national/European road linking Bucharest and southern Romania to the northern border with Ukraine. Consequently, significant negative effects such as traffic congestion, noise, vibrations and air pollution have come to greatly affect the quality of life for urban dwellers, requiring urgent measures for mitigation. The newly designed Fălticeni bypass road is an infrastructure project with a total length of 8.29 km featuring a single lane in each direction, aiming to divert heavy traffic away from the inner core of Fălticeni municipality via the western part of the administrative territory of the city. This objective will be achieved by connecting the DN2E road in the Buciumeni area with the DN2/E85 road at the northern exit toward Suceava (Figure 12).

Along the proposed route, the bypass intersects several areas susceptible to active slope processes, as is the case with the eastern slope of Buciumeni Hill and the dip slope of Glimeii Hill, where the inclination gradients reaching 10-15°, the forest vegetation deficit, and the intensive grazing can lead to terrain degradation. The bypass road is expected to sustain heavy traffic, which could contribute to triggering landslide processes via traffic-induced vibrations in these vulnerable perimeters. However, based on our risk analysis of the local terrain, we concluded that recommending an alternative route for this infrastructure project is unfeasible, due to the configuration of the relief and the layout of the built-up area, while the current trajectory represents the most practical and cost-effective solution for execution. Furthermore, we anticipate that the construction of the A7 Highway (Ploiești - Siret) along the Siret valley, located approx. 30 kilometres east of the study area, and expected to become fully functional after 2029, will absorb most of the heavy transit traffic from the DN2/E85 road, therefore the bypass road will ultimately serve for transport on a predominantly local level.

6. Conclusions

In the contemporary context of urban planning and resource management, regulating and directing the spatial expansion of medium-sized cities such as Fălticeni can no longer be approached exclusively in terms of real estate and economic indicators. Instead, sustainable planning should ideally be coordinated with the support capacity of the natural environment and the structural resilience of the existing urban fabric.

In the study area, the most challenging natural element threatening to interfere with the integrity and the security of the urban community is the manifestation of active geomorphological processes - slope instability, erosion and landslide dynamics. As the built-up perimeter doubled in size during the past four decades, expanding with little to no control or real management in geomorphologically unstable areas, the associated risk as well as the pressure on the natural landscape increased significantly.

Moreover, urban planning in Fălticeni municipality needs to address a pressing structural and functional problem marring the urban landscape after the downfall of communist era large-scale industry, which left behind extensive derelict industrial platforms (brownfields) acting as socio-spatial and aesthetic fractures within the urban body. Additionally, the quality of life in the city is further diminished due to an acute deficit of urban forests and compact green spaces in the municipality and its immediate proximity.

The analysis of land use dynamics in Fălticeni over the past four decades revealed a profound spatial and functional restructuring, closely linked with macro-political and socio-economic shifts, as well as a marked tendency toward unregulated urban sprawl occurring at a rather fast pace. The rapid growth of the built-up residential perimeter (in contrast with the actual demographic decline) is consistent with the general trend observed in cities of similar rank and function within the Romanian urban system, and has occurred at the expense of agricultural land - particularly arable surfaces, pastures and pomicultural plantations. As such, the physical environment of the city (e.g. the geological context, the hydrological particularities, the near complete absence of the forest cover) and the anthropogenic pressure exerted by the urban sprawl converged toward creating a space with high risk for triggering active slope processes.

Based on the geomorphological hazard assessment carried out as part of this study, and the analysis of the recent urban dynamics, we identified several perimeters suitable for the secure expansion of the built-up area, amounting to more than 100 ha. As regards the ecological vulnerability generated by the severe deficit in forest cover and green urban areas, we proposed the establishment of four new forested perimeters covering nearly 200 ha in total, designed to fulfil multiple functions: act as buffer zones to mitigate local microclimatic extremes, serve as open green spaces dedicated to public recreation and leisure, and ensure the stabilization of degraded/vulnerable terrains by anchoring the soil cover and contributing to slope processes mitigation.

Moreover, the brownfield redevelopment of Filatura and Șoldănești platforms, looking to repurpose a total area of approx. 30 ha of derelict industrial spaces, represents a critical priority for sustainable urban renewal. Reintegrating these peri-central, highly accessible perimeters into various functional zones (residential, commercial, green spaces, parks and sports complexes) will eliminate internal functional hiatuses and restore a sizeable part of the city to the community.

Finally, by optimizing the transport infrastructure through the urban bypass road project designed to divert heavy traffic away from the city centre, the planning process marks an essential improvement in terms of both urban safety and air quality. However, the design and execution of the project require thorough terrain assessments and appropriate technical solutions in order to ensure the long-term viability of the investment, as the bypass route intersects several areas with high susceptibility to landsliding or enhanced erosion, such as Buciumeni and Glimeii hills.

By exhibiting an array of dysfunctional features, the case of Fălticeni municipality becomes relevant for an entire class of mid-sized cities for which the fall of communism triggered a lengthy phase of decline or stagnation, despite the recent modernization of Romania and the emerging opportunities for development as part of the European Community. Therefore, the approach to urban planning we are proposing in this study, aiming to correlate the spatial dynamics of functional zones with the susceptibility to natural hazards, and ultimately to provide an evidence-based framework for identifying solutions to internal dysfunctions, has the potential to be replicated successfully for other urban areas facing similar challenges.