A Study on the Impact of MEP Space Organization in Large-Scale Commercial Complexes on Investment Efficiency and Its Mechanisms

Computer-aided simulation and data-driven analysis provide an effective technical basis for optimizing the spatial organization of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems in large-scale commercial complexes. To reduce construction clashes, repeated rework, and investment losses caused by high-density MEP layouts, a BIM-based spatial topology and stochastic optimization model is developed. The model integrates BIM data parsing, component coding, topology construction, bounding-box screening, precise distance calculation, conflict-intensity evaluation, and Monte Carlo simulation. Conflict-type severity, impact range, and rework probability are normalized, and their coefficients are estimated by constrained non-negative regression rather than subjective assignment. Safety clearances are determined from design codes, equipment maintenance manuals, installation tolerances, and project coordination requirements. The stochastic model specifies Beta-Bernoulli, lognormal, and triangular distributions for conflict occurrence, construction and rework losses, and operation and maintenance losses, respectively, and performs 50,000 simulation iterations. A 420,000 m² commercial complex in Shenzhen is used for validation. Compared with the original scheme, the integrated optimization scheme reduced pipeline density from 7.82 m/m² to 6.44 m/m², total conflict nodes from 186 to 109, and the conflict intensity index from 5.85 to 3.41. The average conflict occurrence probability decreased from 55.2% to 33.8%, the rework cost ratio declined from 9.6% to 4.1%, the comprehensive investment cost index decreased by 10.7%, and the unit-area investment return index increased by 12.6%. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can support reproducible MEP spatial optimization and quantitative investment-risk control.