Suitable Growth Functions for the Electric Vehicle Market: A Retrospective Analysis of Forecast Quality

While electric vehicles can reduce the environmental impact of CO2, the extent of this effect depends on the growth of the EV market. Growth models, such as the logistic or Gompertz function models, can predict expected EV sales trends. How well these functions predict EV sales has not yet been comprehensively analyzed. To do so, it would be necessary to look into the future to compare today’s predictions with future data. Since this is not possible, this study took a retrograde approach. It went back in time to use the historical data available then to create forecasts that were then compared with the actual values of subsequent years. For example, a forecast based on data from 2010 to 2014 can be compared with the values achieved in subsequent years from 2015 to 2025. The quality of the functions was assessed using fit indices. When comparing 10 different models, the Gompertz function was found to be the most suitable for predicting the EV market.