Structural Fragility of Installed Capacity in an Urban Health-Service Network in Colombia Through a Multidimensional Ecological Study

Objective: To characterize the structural fragility of installed health-service capacity in Barranquilla, Atlántico, Colombia, using absolute capacity, supply concentration, reserve or transitory capacity, and service-line clinical sensitivity as structural-risk dimensions. Methods: An ecological health-services study was conducted using a local installed-capacity dataset traceable to the Colombian Special Registry of Health Service Providers and SISPRO, together with two contextual World Bank series for Colombia: physicians per 1,000 population and premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases. Traceable data cleaning, functional normalization, separation of baseline versus transitory capacity when allowed by the source fields, and exploratory estimation of a relative structural fragility proxy index using a normalized Poisson-type transformation were performed. This index was interpreted exclusively as a comparative structural-fragility ranking and not as an observed probability of saturation. Results: The analytical capacity of the Barranquilla node included 5,397 installed capacity slots. Adult ICU accounted for 707 slots and neonatal ICU for 160. Reserve capacity was low in neonatal ICU (2.5%) and higher in adult ICU (32.2%). The largest service lines were adult general hospitalization, adult ICU, and pediatric general hospitalization, whereas the highest relative structural fragility was observed in low-scale and highly concentrated services, including burn care, acute mental health, and selected highly specialized lines. Conclusion: Barranquilla has a broad but markedly heterogeneous structural health-service capacity network. The critical pattern is not determined only by the absolute number of slots, but by the interaction between limited capacity, high concentration, low stable reserve, and clinical sensitivity. The evidence generated is structural and should not be interpreted as observed occupancy, real-time saturation, or operational collapse.