Submitted:
13 May 2026
Posted:
13 May 2026
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Method, Original Analysis, and Discussion
3.1. Data Sources and Study Area
3.2. Data Preprocessing
3.3. Variable Specification
- Dependent variable:Severity (binary: injury vs. non-injury)
-
Independent variables:
- ○
- Intersection (0/1)
- ○
- Day/Night (binary)
- ○
- Weather (Chicago only; categorical)
3.4. Statistical Modeling: Logistic Regression
- Full model (all variables)
- Reduced model (intersection only)
3.5. Machine Learning: Random Forest
3.6. Model Evaluation
3.7. Comparative Modeling
4. Result
4.1. Results – Chicago
4.2. Results – NYC
4.3. Comparative Results (Chicago vs. NYC)
5. Discussion
6. Policy Recommendations
6.1. Intersection-Focused Speed Management (Chicago Priority)
- Implementation of traffic calming measures such as raised intersections, curb extensions, and speed humps
- Installation of speed feedback signs near high-risk intersections
- Adjustment of signal timing to reduce high-speed turning movements
6.2. Enhanced Intersection Design and Signal Control
- Introduce or expand protected left-turn phases at signalized intersections
- Improve intersection visibility through better signage, lane markings, and lighting
- Redesign high-risk intersections using geometric modifications, such as tighter turning radii
6.3. Nighttime Safety Improvements (Both Cities)
- Upgrade street lighting infrastructure, particularly at intersections and pedestrian crossings
- Use high-visibility crosswalk markings and reflective materials
- Increase nighttime enforcement for speeding, impaired driving, and red-light violations
6.4. Pedestrian-Oriented Safety Measures (NYC Priority)
- Implement pedestrian leading intervals (LPI) at intersections
- Expand pedestrian refuge islands in wide crossings
- Reduce crossing distances through curb extensions and road diets
6.5. Spatially Targeted Interventions
- Identify and prioritize high-density crash zones for intervention
- Allocate resources based on spatial risk patterns rather than uniform distribution
- Integrate GIS-based analysis into routine safety planning
6.6. Data-Driven and Context-Specific Planning
- Traffic safety policies should be tailored to local conditions, including road network structure, traffic flow, and urban density
- Agencies should adopt data-driven approaches that combine statistical modeling, machine learning, and spatial analysis
- Continuous monitoring and evaluation should be conducted to adapt strategies over time
7. Conclusion
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| Variable | Chicago Coef | Chicago OR | Chicago p-value | NYC Coef | NYC OR | NYC p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intersection | 0.756 | 2.13 | <0.001 | 0.169 | 1.18 | <0.001 |
| Night | 0.270 | 1.31 | <0.001 | 0.274 | 1.32 | <0.001 |
| City | AUC | AIC (Full Model) |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 0.56 | 842,366 |
| NYC | 0.54 | 2,488,050 |
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