Agricultural Support Reduces Import Dependency in Developing Countries: New Insights from Continuous Treatment Effects Models

This article analyzes the impact of agricultural support measures on food import dependency for a 52-country sample from 1985 to 2017 using databases from the World Bank, the Center for Systemic Peace and the Groningen Center for Growth and Development. We apply a continuous treatment effect and control for endogeneity to describe the extent of food import dependency in response to domestic support for agriculture. Our results show strong evidence of heterogeneous impacts on aggregate food import dependency at different levels of political aid intensity. Estimates of dose-response functions confirm that countries providing moderate support to agriculture tend to do better in reducing their use of agri-food imports.