Invisible Progress in Entrepreneurial Ecosystems: Coordination Thresholds, Feedback Dominance, and the Structural Blind Spots of Policy Evaluation

Output-based indicators in entrepreneurial ecosystem governance systematically misclassify pre-threshold structural progress as policy failure, because feedback dynamics produce no immediate output signal. This study examines how institutional coordination shapes those dynamics. Using system dynamics modelling, we construct a three-stock model (active startups, entrepreneurial capabilities, and institutional support). Calibration is performed via structured expert elicitation using the Repertory Grid Technique (RGT), enabling institutionally grounded parameter estimation where comparable time-series data are unavailable. Three policy scenarios — fragmented support, financial intensification without coordination, and coordinated early intervention — are simulated for Mexico and the United Kingdom. Resource intensification alone yields only temporary gains when feedback structures remain fragmented. Coordinated intervention activates reinforcing feedback among all three stocks, enabling self-sustaining growth beyond a critical coordination threshold. The United Kingdom crosses this threshold earlier due to stronger baseline conditions; Mexico responds later but with larger proportional gains. The model provides a feedback-structural diagnostic that distinguishes pre-threshold structural assembly from genuine stagnation, with direct implications for the design of evaluation frameworks in fragile institutional contexts. RGT demonstrates potential as a calibration strategy for feedback models in data-sparse settings.