A Multi-Hit Analyis of Sixty- Five Years of Pancreatic Cancer Incidence Suggests Sugar Consumption Expands the Pool of Persons at Risk

Cancers are thought to result from the interaction of a small set of mutations in genes that regulate cell growth. A sixty-five year series of incidence data is available for cancer of the pancreas, spanning the period over which incidence increased threefold. These data were analysed using a multi-hit mutation model. The analysis yielded as parameters the averages of the number of interacting genes (with the number four being within the range found), the rate of their mutation, the age at which mutations began to accumulate and the number of persons at risk. Only this last parameter showed a significant increase over the years, a period which coincided with increased consumption of sugars. The effect of glucose on the proliferation of cells of the pancreas is suggested as a basis for these findings.