Submitted:
17 April 2026
Posted:
20 April 2026
You are already at the latest version
Abstract
Keywords:
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Valuation Approaches in Financial Analysis
2.2. Industry-Specific Valuation Logic
2.3. Evidence on Analyst Valuation Practice
2.4. Research Gap
3. Methodology
3.1. Research Design and Sample
3.2. Coding and Classification
3.3. Analytical Approach
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Industry Coverage and Valuation Techniques
4.2. Valuation Approaches Across Industries
4.2.1. Diversified Mining
4.2.2. Platinum Group Metals Mining
4.2.3. Gold Mining
4.2.4. Retail
4.2.5. Banking Sector
4.3. Cross-Industry Comparison
5. Conclusion
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| NPV | Net Present Value |
| DCF | Discounted Cash Flow |
| JSE | Johannesburg Stock Exchange |
| tNAV | Tangible Net Asset Value |
| ROTE | Return on Tangible Equity |
| P/BV | Price per Book Value |
| ROE | Return on Equity |
Appendix A
Appendix A1: Diversified Mining Companies
| Investec Bank Ltd | Standard Bank Group Ltd |
|---|---|
|
Diversified mining companies covered by the analysts: BHP Group Ltd, Glencore plc, Anglo-American plc, Kumba Iron Ore Ltd and Exxaro Resources Ltd. BHP Group,11 March 2021 [Method: We use an equal blend of risk-adjusted NPV (9% discount rate) and 6.3x FY21/22 EBITDA multiple.] The EBITDA multiples used, however, differ: Glencore (5.5x) and Anglo-American plc (5.5x), Kumba Iron Ore, 15 March 2021 [Method: We use a risk-adjusted NPV at a 13.6% discount rate.] Exxaro, 18 March 2021 [Method: We use a risk-adjusted NPV at a 14% discount rate.] The analyst’s valuation approach for the 5 mining companies remained unchanged from 2018 to 2021. |
Diversified mining companies covered by the analysts: BHP Group Ltd, Glencore plc, Anglo-American plc, Kumba Iron Ore Ltd and Exxaro Resources Ltd. BHP Group, 18 April 2024 [Methods: We value BHP using a DCF valuation for operating assets over the LoM and assuming a USD WACC of 9.5% (equity risk premium (ERP) 4.5%, Beta 1.25, long bond 5.0%, cost of equity 10.6%, and long-term gearing of 20% debt/debt+ equity). We DCF our cash flows on a 12-month forward rolling basis at a 10% premium to reflect the historic premium, simplicity, potential growth and defensive nature of BHP.] The same basis was used to value Glencore and Anglo-American but with no premiums for both companies. The analysts' valuation approach for the 3 companies remained unchanged from 2018 to 2021. Exxaro, 19 August 2024 [Methods: We value Exxaro using a DCF valuation for operating assets, and over the life of mine, assuming a ZAR WACC of 14.6% (equity risk premium (ERP) 4.5%, Beta 1.25, long bond 9%, cost of equity 14.6%, and long-term gearing of 0% debt/equity %). We DCF our cash flows on a 12-month forward rolling basis at a 10% discount for coal assets given ESG investor universe limits, a 20% discount for SIOC and Black Mountain given their unlisted status.] The same basis was used to value Kumba Iron Ore but with no discount or premium. The analyst’s valuation approach for the 2 companies remained unchanged in the period 2018 to 2021. |
Appendix A2: Undiversified Mining Companies (PGMs)
| Investec Bank Ltd | Standard Bank Group Ltd |
|---|---|
|
The undiversified mining companies (PGMs) covered by the analysts are: Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd, Sibanye Stillwater Ltd, Anglo-American Platinum Ltd, and Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. Northam Platinum Holdings, 08March 2021 [Method: We use Risk-adjusted NPV at a 13% discount rate.] The analysts used the same approach to value the equities of Sibanye Stillwater, Anglo-American Platinum and Impala Platinum Holdings. The analysts' valuation approach for the 4 undiversified mining companies (PGMs) remained unchanged from 2018 to 2021. |
The undiversified mining companies (PGMs) covered by the analysts are: Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd, Sibanye Stillwater Ltd, Anglo-American Platinum Ltd, and Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. Northam Platinum Holdings, 02 September 2024 [Methods: We adopt discounted cash flow and earnings multiples valuation methodologies. Our discounted cash flow extends over life of mine based on reserves. We use a conventional discount rate of 8%.] The same basis was used to value Anglo-American Platinum and Impala Platinum Holdings. The analysts' valuation approach for the 3 companies remained unchanged from 2018 to 2024. Sibanye Stillwater, 13 March 2024 [Methods: We value the company using a DCF-based valuation, real cash flows and a real discount rate of 8%.] The analyst’s valuation approach for the company remained unchanged from 2018 to 2024. |
Appendix A3: Undiversified Mining Companies (PGMs)
| Investec Bank Ltd | Standard Bank Group Ltd |
|---|---|
|
The undiversified mining companies (Gold) covered by the analysts are: Goldfields Ltd, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd and Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd. AngloGold Ashanti, 18 February 2021 [Method: We use the EV/EBITDA multiple.] The analysts used the same approach to value the equity of Harmony Gold Mining Company. The analysts' valuation approach for the 2 undiversified mining companies (Gold) remained unchanged from 2018 to 2021. Goldfields, 18 February 2021 [Method: We use the EV/EBITDA & P/B multiples.] The analysts' valuation approach for the company remained unchanged from 2018 to 2021. |
The undiversified mining companies (Gold) covered by the analysts are: Goldfields Ltd, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd and Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd. AngloGold, 07 August 2024 [Methods: Our price target methodology for AngloGold is based primarily on a real discounted cash-flow, in which we discount our future estimates of cash flow using a real discount rate of 8%. The number of years for estimating cash flows is based on the life of mine estimates as indicated by reserves and potential additional reserves. In some case, we use alternative valuation techniques, including transaction based and market-cap implied valuation techniques. The valuation of many mining assets, especially gold miners based on net present value (NPV) per share and discounted cash-flow (DCF) methodology does not generally reflect the value per share ascribed in the market place. Companies may trade at a premium or discount to NPV (generally referred to as P/NPV). The P/NPV per share premium or discount ascribed to a company's share should reflect the market perception of risk to that particular company. We believe the premium or discount ascribed takes into account the following: (1). Quality of reserves and resources. (2). Country and geographical risks. (3). Managements track record. (4). Leverage of cash flow to metal price and local currency exchange rates. (5). Quality of mining and metallurgical operations.] The same basis was used to value Harmony Gold Mining Company. The analysts' valuation approach for the 2 companies remained unchanged from 2018 to 2024. Goldfields, 26 August 2024 [Methods: We value the company using Real DCF at an 8% discount rate at the spot gold price at the time of publication.] The analyst’s valuation approach for the company remained unchanged from 2018 to 2024. |
Appendix A4: Undiversified Mining Companies (PGMs)
| Investec Bank Ltd | Standard Bank Group Ltd |
|---|---|
|
The top 7 South African retail companies covered by the analysts are: Truworths International Ltd, Woolworths Holdings Ltd, Mr Price Ltd, The Foschini Group Ltd, Pick n Pay Stores Ltd, Shoprite Holdings Ltd and The SPAR Group Ltd. The Foschini Group, 21 February 2021 [Method: We use an equally weighted combination of RIV, SoTP and PER (P/E ratio).] The analysts used the same approach to value the equities of Truworths International Ltd, Woolworths Holdings Ltd, Mr Price Ltd, Pick n Pay Stores Ltd, Shoprite Holdings Ltd and The SPAR Group Ltd. The analysts' valuation approach for the 7 retail companies remained unchanged from 2018 to 2021. |
The top 7 South African retail companies covered by the analysts are: Truworths International Ltd, Woolworths Holdings Ltd, Mr Price Ltd, The Foschini Group Ltd, Pick n Pay Stores Ltd, Shoprite Holdings Ltd and The SPAR Group Ltd. Woolworths Holdings, 31 July 2024 [Methods: A through the cycle 12-month forward PE is applied to forecast earnings, based on relative market sentiment and risks inherent in the business case.] The same basis was used to value Mr Price, Pick n Pay Stores and The SPAR Group. The analysts' valuation approach for the 4 companies remained unchanged from 2018 to 2024. Shoprite Holdings, 01 March 2024 [Methods: An applied through the cycle forward PE multiple, adjusted for inherent risks and earnings outlook. We provide additional valuation support using a sum-of-the-parts, DCF and dividend discount model.] The same basis was used to value Truworths International and The Foschini Group. The analyst’s valuation approach for the 3 companies remained unchanged from 2018 to 2024. |
Appendix A5: Banking Sector (2018-2021)
| Investec Bank Ltd | Standard Bank Group Ltd |
|---|---|
|
Banks covered: Capitec Bank Ltd, FirstRand Ltd, ABSA Group Ltd, Standard Bank Group Ltd and Nedbank Group Ltd. [Method: Valuation using a Gordon Growth Model. Basing the target price on a terminal value and adding back the value of the discounted interim dividends in order to account for all expected cash flow to the investor. To calculate the terminal value, we calculate the 3-year expected book value by the expected terminal P/B multiple. We base the terminal value on a standard Gordon Growth equation, using an adjusted historic ROE, growth factor and the cost of equity.] The analyst’s valuation approach for the 5 banks remained unchanged from 2018 to 2021. |
Banks covered: Capitec Bank Ltd and FirstRand Ltd. FirstRand Ltd, 21 March 2021 [Methods: We value FirstRand on a price-to-book methodology using the average medium-term ROTE to determine the exit multiple. Given our average banking ROTE of 21% to FY23e and our cost of equity of 13.0% which is in line with the other counters in our universe, we arrive at an exit multiple of 2.2x. We apply this to our terminal TNAV and discount it back along with dividends to today to arrive at our current fair value. We then roll this forward at the cost of equity less the dividend yield to arrive at our 12-month price target of R58.0. We calculate a 21% potential upside and therefore upgrade our recommendation to BUY.] The same basis was used to value Capitec Bank Ltd equities. The analyst’s valuation approach for the 2 banks remained unchanged from 2018 to 2021. |
|
Banks covered: ABSA Group Ltd, Standard Bank Group Ltd and Nedbank Group Ltd. Standard Bank, 26 March 2021 [Methods: We value Standard Bank on a sum-of-the-parts basis by applying a price-to-book methodology on the banking operation and use the market valuation for Liberty. Given our average banking ROTE of 16.9% to FY24e and our cost of equity of 14.5%, which is in line with the other counters in our universe, we arrive at an exit multiple of 1.3x. We apply this to our terminal TNAV and discount it back along with dividends to today to arrive at our current fair value. We then add our fair value for the life insurance unit, and then roll this forward at the cost of equity less the dividend yield to arrive at our 12-month price target of R150. We calculate a 28% potential upside and, therefore, upgrade our BUY recommendation.] The same basis was used to value ABSA Group Ltd and Nedbank Group Ltd equities. The analyst’s valuation approach for the 3 banks remained unchanged from 2018 to 2021. |
Appendix A6: Banking Sector (2022–2025)
|
Absa, 27 June 2025 [Methods: Our target price is calculated using a tNAV-based valuation approach, summarised as follows: 1. We forecast tNAV per share and return on tNAV 2. We use the average return over the 3 forecast years as a proxy for sustainable return on tNAV, currently 16.4%. 3. We divide this sustainable return less terminal growth by cost of equity less terminal growth (8.1%) in order to arrive at a fair multiple to tNAV (1.1x). Our calculation of cost of equity (15.8%) is a function of our assessment of the risk inherent in the company. 4. We multiply this "fair multiple to tNAV" with our forecast tNAV per share at the end of year 3 to arrive at a value per share at the end of year 3. 5. We use the company's cost of equity to present value this value per share at the end of year 3, as well as all the dividends that will be paid over the next three years. The result is our current valuation price. 6. We roll the current valuation forward 12 months at the cost of equity, and subtract the next two dividends to arrive at a 12-month target price of R217.00, implying 31.6% upside, including 4.5% dividend yield. |
Capitec, 13 August 2025 [Methods: Our target price is calculated using a tNAV-based valuation approach, summarised as follows: 1. We use the average return over the 3 forecast years as a proxy for sustainable return on tNAV, currently 31.8%. 2. We divide this sustainable return less terminal growth by cost of equity less terminal growth (12.2%) in order to arrive at a fair multiple to tNAV (7.4x). Our calculation of cost of equity (14.9%) is a function of our assessment of the risk inherent in the company. 3. We multiply this "fair multiple to tNAV" with our forecast tNAV per share at the end of year 3 to arrive at a value per share at the end of year 3. 4. We use the company's cost of equity to present value this value per share at the end of year 3, as well as all the dividends that will be paid over the next three years. The result is our current valuation price. 5. We roll the current valuation forward 12 months at the cost of equity, and subtract the next two dividends to arrive at a 12-month target price of R4,300.00, implying 23.1% upside, including 2.7% dividend yield. |
|
FirstRand, 03 December 2025 [Methods: Our target price is calculated using a tNAV-based valuation approach, summarised as follows: 1. We forecast tNAV per share and return on tNAV, 2. We use the average return over the 3 forecast years as a proxy for sustainable return on tNAV, currently 22.0%.3. We divide this sustainable return less terminal growth by cost of equity less terminal growth (6.5%) in order to arrive at a fair multiple to tNAV (2.1x). Our calculation of cost of equity (14.0%) is a function of our assessment of the risk inherent in the company.4. We multiply this "fair multiple to tNAV" with our forecast tNAV per share at the end of year 3 to arrive at a value per share at the end of year 3. 5. We use the company's cost of equity to present value this value per share at the end of year 3, as well as all the dividends that will be paid over the next three years. The result is our current valuation price. 6. We roll the current valuation forward 12 months at the cost of equity, and subtract the next two dividends to arrive at a 12-month target price of R93.00, implying 16.6% upside, including 5.2% dividend yield. |
Nedbank, 04 December 2025 [Methods: Our target price is calculated using a tNAV-based valuation approach, summarised as follows: 1. We forecast tNAV per share and return on tNAV, 2. We use the average return over the 3 forecast years as a proxy for sustainable return on tNAV, currently 16.2%.3. We divide this sustainable return less terminal growth by cost of equity less terminal growth (5.4%) in order to arrive at a fair multiple to tNAV (1.3x). Our calculation of cost of equity (14.0%) is a function of our assessment of the risk inherent in the company.4. We multiply this "fair multiple to tNAV" with our forecast tNAV per share at the end of year 3 to arrive at a value per share at the end of year 3. 5. We use the company's cost of equity to present this value per share at the end of year 3, as well as all the dividends that will be paid over the next three years. The result is our current valuation price. 6. We roll the current valuation forward 12 months at the cost of equity, and subtract the next two dividends to arrive at a 12-month target price of R335.00, implying 39.4% upside, including 8.3% dividend yield |
Appendix A7: Banking Sector (2026)
|
Absa, 12 March 2026 [Methods: Our target price is calculated using a tNAV-based valuation approach, summarised as follows: 1. We forecast tNAV per share and return on tNAV. 2. We use the average return over the 3 forecast years as a proxy for sustainable return on tNAV, currently 17.6%.3. We divide this sustainable return less terminal growth by cost of equity less terminal growth (7.1%) in order to arrive at a fair multiple to tNAV (1.4x). Our calculation of cost of equity (14.9%) is a function of our assessment of the risk inherent in the company.4. We multiply this "fair multiple to tNAV" with our forecast tNAV per share at the end of year 3 to arrive at a value per share at the end of year 3. 5. We use the company's cost of equity to present value this value per share at the end of year 3, as well as all the dividends that will be paid over the next three years. The result is our current valuation price. 6. We roll the current valuation forward 12 months at the cost of equity, and subtract the next two dividends to arrive at a 12-month target price of R281.00, implying 28.4% upside, including 8.2% dividend yield. |
Capitec, 11 February 2026 [Methods: Our target price is calculated using a tNAV-based valuation approach, summarised as follows: 1. We forecast tNAV per share and return on tNAV. 2. We use the average return over the 3 forecast years as a proxy for sustainable return on tNAV, currently 31.4%.3. We divide this sustainable return less terminal growth by cost of equity less terminal growth (11.1%) in order to arrive at a fair multiple to tNAV (8.6x). Our calculation of cost of equity (13.5%) is a function of our assessment of the risk inherent in the company.4. We multiply this "fair multiple to tNAV" with our forecast tNAV per share at the end of year 3 to arrive at a value per share at the end of year 3. 5. We use the company's cost of equity to present value this value per share at the end of year 3, as well as all the dividends that will be paid over the next three years. The result is our current valuation price. 6. We roll the current valuation forward 12 months at the cost of equity, and subtract the next two dividends to arrive at a 12-month target price of R5,400.00, implying 20.7% upside, including 2.1% dividend yield. |
|
FirstRand, 01 April 2026 [Methods: Our target price is calculated using a tNAV-based valuation approach, summarised as follows: 1. We forecast tNAV per share and return on tNAV 2. We use the average return over the 3 forecast years as a proxy for sustainable return on tNAV, currently 22.4%.3. We divide this sustainable return less terminal growth by cost of equity less terminal growth (6.5%) in order to arrive at a fair multiple to tNAV (2.2x). Our calculation of cost of equity (13.6%) is a function of our assessment of the risk inherent in the company.4. We multiply this "fair multiple to tNAV" with our forecast tNAV per share at the end of year 3 to arrive at a value per share at the end of year 3. 5. We use the company's cost of equity to present value this value per share at the end of year 3, as well as all the dividends that will be paid over the next three years. The result is our current valuation price. 6. We roll the current valuation forward 12 months at the cost of equity, and subtract the next two dividends to arrive at a 12-month target price of R103.00, implying 24.5% upside, including 6.1% dividend yield. |
Nedbank, 22 January 2026 [Methods: Our target price is calculated using a tNAV-based valuation approach, summarised as follows: 1. We forecast tNAV per share and return on tNAV 2. We use the average return over the 3 forecast years as a proxy for sustainable return on tNAV, currently 16.2%.3. We divide this sustainable return less terminal growth by cost of equity less terminal growth (5.4%) in order to arrive at a fair multiple to tNAV (1.3x). Our calculation of cost of equity (14.0%) is a function of our assessment of the risk inherent in the company.4. We multiply this "fair multiple to tNAV" with our forecast tNAV per share at the end of year 3 to arrive at a value per share at the end of year 3. 5. We use the company's cost of equity to present value this value per share at the end of year 3, as well as all the dividends that will be paid over the next three years. The result is our current valuation price. 6. We roll the current valuation forward 12 months at the cost of equity, and subtract the next two dividends to arrive at a 12-month target price of R335.00, implying 39.4% upside, including 8.3% dividend yield. |
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| Industry | Companies Analysed | Dominant drivers | Primary Valuation Method | Supporting Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diversified Mining | BHP Group, Glencore, Anglo-American, Kumba Iron Ore, Exxaro Resources | Reserve life, long-lived assets, commodity prices, capital expenditure | Risk-adjusted NPV / LoM DCF | EV/EBITDA multiples |
| PGM Mining | Northam Platinum, Sibanye Stillwater, Anglo-American Platinum, Impala Platinum | Reserve-based production, metal prices, long-horizon capex | Life-of-mine DCF | Earnings multiples |
| Gold Mining | Goldfields, AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony Gold | Reserve value, gold price exposure, market risk perception | Hybrid: real DCF / NPV | EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/NPV overlays |
| Retail | Truworths, Woolworths, Mr Price, Foschini Group, Pick n Pay, Shoprite, SPAR | Earnings stability, peer comparability, shorter operating cycles | Forward P/E | RIV, SoTP, DCF, DDM |
| Banking | Capitec, FirstRand, ABSA, Standard Bank, Nedbank | Book value, ROE, capital adequacy, dividend flows | P/B, tNAV, Gordon Growth | DDM, SoTP |
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